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Post by chielamangus on May 1, 2014 13:06:26 GMT
It being the the first of the month when I compare performance across the P2P platforms I use, I thought members might be interested in the results. I calculate rate of return using XIRR in Excel, using deposits, withdrawals, and account balance at the end of the month -the simplest and most accurate approach.
Funding Circle. IRR to date 6.8 per cent (also for the past month). This compares with a nominal gross interest rate of 10.4 per cent calculated by FC, and an FC estimated net return of 7.9 per cent after fees & defaults. The FC calculation takes no account of dead money time while auctions and loan arrangements take place (or not, as sometimes happens).
Assetz capital. IRR to date 7.5 per cent. This is despite having no loan parts under 10 per cent. Again, the answer lies in all the dead money time involved in the auctions and waiting for drawdown. Also this reflects the lag between investment and returns as the account has been running only 4 months.
Ratesetter. IRR to date 2.8 per cent. This compares with a weighted average nominal rate of 4.3 per cent based on the amounts lent at different rates on different loan terms. I assume most of this discrepancy is due to the investment-return lag - the account has been running less than 4 months
Wellesley. No IRR estimate possible as most of the interest will be paid at end of term. Weighted AER 5.4 per cent.
Taking account of all the work involved for FC, and the default risks (which are just becoming more evident in my loanbook), the return hardly seems adequate. Assetz has a better return/work balance and hopefully much lower risk. But my "best buy" is Wellesley because it makes no demands on my time.
Just submitted for information - I'm not trying to make a point about the virtues of different platforms since most here will have different priorities from me.
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j
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Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on May 1, 2014 13:36:59 GMT
Very interesting results indeed. I would have thought the likes of AC's rate would be much higher but, taking into account long draw down schedules.........
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baz657
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Post by baz657 on May 1, 2014 16:43:32 GMT
Very useful information chielamangus - thanks for taking the time and trouble. Also very interesting that actual and factual "real world" calculations come up short of the obtainable rates implied, expected and well advertised by each and every platform, some worse than others.
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Post by oldnick on May 2, 2014 0:06:40 GMT
Very good post. The results could be improved on by only buying in secondary markets to avoid some of the dead money time, but that approach has its limitations too. (Availability of and diversity of opportunity can be variable) Talking of dead money time - this assumes that the said money would otherwise be equally gainfully employed elsewhere. In all likelihood, if it's on bank or building society deposit, it's earning very little. And if inflation is factored in, the dead money time cost of transferring to the p2p/b market has to be set against the certain loss resulting from leaving the money earning, effectively, negative interest.
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on May 2, 2014 9:41:47 GMT
Just to add mine for comparison (same methodology). This updates my figures from another thread: AC 7.11% Difference from headline average of c.11.5% entirely down to dead time. Should improve now that I have a shadow account . FC 5.68% Dead time and some losses. After-tax XIRR 4.12% assuming 20% tax paid last week of January after end of tax year. I'm now out of FC. Effort/reward ratio not for me. RS 4.94% All in 5 yrs. My headline average is now 5.5%, but it was much less than this because I timed my entry badly. The effect of dead time is somewhere around 0.2-0.3%. TC 7.32% Difference from headline average of c.10% entirely down to dead time. No losses yet...
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james
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Post by james on May 2, 2014 10:40:33 GMT
Mine for Bondora: about 15.5% in Euros or 14.3% in Pounds and increasing by about 0.8% a month except for exchange rate effects.
It'll probably be 22-25% or so once initial time to get money invested last year and recent rapid growth of the amount I've lent are less significant. Lots of loans that are too young to have made a payment at the moment. This is valuing all loans in default state at total loss even though all are making payments of some sort. Add 1% more to allow for likely recovery rates. Bondora's calculation without allowing for time to invest is about 28%.
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Post by chielamangus on May 2, 2014 15:22:18 GMT
Mine for Bondora: about 15.5% in Euros or 14.3% in Pounds and increasing by about 0.8% a month except for exchange rate effects. It'll probably be 22-25% or so once initial time to get money invested last year and recent rapid growth of the amount I've lent are less significant. Lots of loans that are too young to have made a payment at the moment. This is valuing all loans in default state at total loss even though all are making payments of some sort. Add 1% more to allow for likely recovery rates. Bondora's calculation without allowing for time to invest is about 28%. Mmmm! Maybe I should look at this but I'm quite risk averse and having worked in central and eastern Europe I know how weak their institutions are.
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james
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Post by james on May 2, 2014 15:41:59 GMT
Bondora currently allows lending to Estonia, Finland, Spain and Slovakia. That won't move Bondora itself from Estonia but you might like to lend to those in Spain and/or Finland. More countries to come over time. Estonian debt collection appears to be effective, given the 86%+ recovery rate achieved there on loans two or more years old and given my experience so far that seems realistic.
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Post by cyrilmadrid on Jun 6, 2014 22:05:50 GMT
Luckily, since many loans have a term of 5 years, IRR is affected today by the somewhat long drawdown period compared to the period we have received interest on, but your future IRR should improve as you now earn interest every day till term, provided you will be paid.
Calculating the IRR is indeed a good exercise. One of my Finance teachers years ago used to say : Rates are bullshit, Flows are rock solid.
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