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Post by lendinglawyer on Mar 13, 2017 14:26:20 GMT
That will depend on the extent to which those who are already in 17 have reached their concentration limit (and stick to it), especially as the investor count is already high - based on current numbers average hold per investor in this loan is £2.3k, which while I haven't checked it more widely I think is quite high. Many may decide that their J** and/or Chelmsford proceeds are better deployed in other ways than by ploughing more into 17 @ 11%. When a loan is paid all sorts of poo is bought on the SM desperate to stay invested. These are two biggies. My bet is 17 would come down considerably by either, 2.3k is nothing to a BH. Did some basic maths on other big (£1m+) loans recently. Of those, the highest hold per investor is around £1500. Agree £2300 is nothing for a BH, but I would assume a lot of BHs are already in given the average figure for this loan is already 1.5x the next highest, and would have to get up to around £3k (or 2x the next highest) for the loan to fill with an average number of investors. Of course you will probably be proved to be completely right in due course (and I hope you are), as I am assuming a market populated primarily by rational actors....... EDIT: then of course I did the maths on PBL143 itself and found it at around £3k average per investor. So almost certainly this will get filled if/when PBL143 repays, unless of course everyone revolts against the lower interest rate...
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mikeh
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Post by mikeh on Mar 13, 2017 14:37:31 GMT
Thanks lobster , we can expect an update imminently then  . Oh dear. As long as that. 
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Mar 13, 2017 14:37:40 GMT
J** might save 17. Chelmsford has been on the final stages of refinance for some time. The race is on 😎 .
Nah! The only race is (was?) over on the Gloucestershire loans. However, I think they've all run out of puff because the borrower is no longer "racing" to refinance, but has now reverted to "trying" to refinance.
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Mar 14, 2017 3:17:09 GMT
When a loan is paid all sorts of poo is bought on the SM desperate to stay invested. These are two biggies. My bet is 17 would come down considerably by either, 2.3k is nothing to a BH. Did some basic maths on other big (£1m+) loans recently. Of those, the highest hold per investor is around £1500. Agree £2300 is nothing for a BH, but I would assume a lot of BHs are already in given the average figure for this loan is already 1.5x the next highest, and would have to get up to around £3k (or 2x the next highest) for the loan to fill with an average number of investors. Of course you will probably be proved to be completely right in due course (and I hope you are), as I am assuming a market populated primarily by rational actors....... EDIT: then of course I did the maths on PBL143 itself and found it at around £3k average per investor. So almost certainly this will get filled if/when PBL143 repays, unless of course everyone revolts against the lower interest rate... Basic math will go out of the window if there is 8M needing to be invested, 1.5M 360 day 11% loan would be a perfectly reasonable parking place until other opportunities become available. There's 3.5M invested in Glouc loans which have just officially defaulted and are currently paying zero interest. With each bank run 17 is shrinking - 0.7M in 2 working days - making a J** digestion even more achievable.
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Mar 20, 2017 11:03:34 GMT
When a loan is paid all sorts of poo is bought on the SM desperate to stay invested. These are two biggies. My bet is 17 would come down considerably by either, 2.3k is nothing to a BH. Did some basic maths on other big (£1m+) loans recently. Of those, the highest hold per investor is around £1500. Agree £2300 is nothing for a BH, but I would assume a lot of BHs are already in given the average figure for this loan is already 1.5x the next highest, and would have to get up to around £3k (or 2x the next highest) for the loan to fill with an average number of investors. Of course you will probably be proved to be completely right Basic math refresher: DFL17 2.6k average. Interest run or J** should take care of the 88k.
Edit - 2.7k, job done.
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Post by lendinglawyer on Mar 20, 2017 12:10:20 GMT
Did some basic maths on other big (£1m+) loans recently. Of those, the highest hold per investor is around £1500. Agree £2300 is nothing for a BH, but I would assume a lot of BHs are already in given the average figure for this loan is already 1.5x the next highest, and would have to get up to around £3k (or 2x the next highest) for the loan to fill with an average number of investors. Of course you will probably be proved to be completely right Basic math refresher: DFL17 2.6k average. Interest run or J** should take care of the 88k.
Edit - 2.7k, job done.
I stand very happily corrected - things seem to have equalled out in a good place for investors over the last week, even though if you read these boards you wouldn't necessarily realise it...
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Mar 20, 2017 12:17:25 GMT
I stand very happily corrected - things seem to have equalled out in a good place for investors over the last week, even though if you read these boards you wouldn't necessarily realise it... Most of the "noise" on the SS board comes from relatively inexperienced SS lenders (and most "old hands" cannot be bothered endlessly to respond to the wilder ravings). Those who've been lending here for years have seen it all before, on multiple occasions. Feast or famine are the entirely normal default states for any par-only secondary market.
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jomantha
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Post by jomantha on Mar 20, 2017 12:27:34 GMT
I stand very happily corrected - things seem to have equalled out in a good place for investors over the last week, even though if you read these boards you wouldn't necessarily realise it... Most of the "noise" on the SS board comes from relatively inexperienced SS lenders (and most "old hands" cannot be bothered endlessly to respond to the wilder ravings). Those who've been lending here for years have seen it all before, on multiple occasions. Feast or famine are the entirely normal default states for any par-only secondary market. I agree, a lot of noise has come from me seeking the views of those who have been around for longer than I have.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Mar 20, 2017 12:32:53 GMT
I agree, a lot of noise has come from me seeking the views of those who have been around for longer than I have. By "noise", I wasn't meaning reasonable questions and debate. I was referring to the "We're all doomed" / "It's all a con" / "SS are cooking the books" type posts
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jomantha
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Post by jomantha on Mar 20, 2017 12:35:52 GMT
I agree, a lot of noise has come from me seeking the views of those who have been around for longer than I have. By "noise", I wasn't meaning reasonable questions and debate. I was referring to the "We're all doomed" / "It's all a con" / "SS are cooking the books" type posts Ah - that made my children ask why I was laughing.
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Post by lendinglawyer on Mar 20, 2017 12:39:02 GMT
I agree, a lot of noise has come from me seeking the views of those who have been around for longer than I have. By "noise", I wasn't meaning reasonable questions and debate. I was referring to the "We're all doomed" / "It's all a con" / "SS are cooking the books" type posts The one that cracks me up is the people who seem to have nothing better to do than refresh SS all weekend and time several deposits and withdrawals, then shout about them when they take longer than they think they should take regardless of how unreasonable that expectation is. Anyway, that's all I will say on these matters. But the hysteria is mind boggling.
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 20, 2017 12:40:25 GMT
Another £300k appeared I assume SS that they held back I wonder how much they still hold
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Post by chielamangus on Mar 20, 2017 18:10:22 GMT
Yup, most of us get criticised/"moderated"/banned if the mods (especially the one here) think we are being rude about forumites. But clearly there is one rule for us and another for mods.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2017 18:26:11 GMT
If SS found a way to have most deposits handled in 30 seconds You'd have forumites on here complaining if their deposits took 60 seconds rather than 30  |
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Mar 20, 2017 20:07:28 GMT
Yup, most of us get criticised/"moderated"/banned if the mods (especially the one here) think we are being rude about forumites. But clearly there is one rule for us and another for mods. Nope, same rules for all, so if you saw a moderator being intentionally rude to some particular poor forumite, you'll find the 'report post' button under the cogwheel, top right. If you objected to the more general comment that some forumites are whinging numpties, then I'm afraid you probably won't get a prosecution, at least not with a jury of regular readers.
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