littleoldlady
Member of DD Central
Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on May 1, 2017 21:35:39 GMT
I wonder if the fans of due diligence and checking out the security and veracity of the valuation report would put their money where their mouths are and invest in a defaulted loan over and above one with say 200 days to run if the security looked sounder on the defaulted loan than on the 200 day to run loan. Personally I doubt it. Activity on the secondary market suggests that the majority of investors operate like I do and that only fools or the very brave willingly hold loans to term end. Is it possible for the majority to do so? For every seller you have to have a buyer.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on May 1, 2017 21:40:22 GMT
I wonder if the fans of due diligence and checking out the security and veracity of the valuation report would put their money where their mouths are and invest in a defaulted loan over and above one with say 200 days to run if the security looked sounder on the defaulted loan than on the 200 day to run loan. Personally I doubt it. Activity on the secondary market suggests that the majority of investors operate like I do and that only fools or the very brave willingly hold loans to term end. As with the stock marke, there are a lot of speculators rather than investors. Im happy to hold all of mine to term, but do take opportunities to sell out during periods of liquidity. it is bemusing to see a slight sense of panic on the SS forum, compared to no panic on MT or ABL. Should be good news for those hoping to see higher rates on new loans.
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GeorgeT
Member of DD Central
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Post by GeorgeT on May 1, 2017 21:53:54 GMT
Slightly higher rates are definitely needed on this platform. They have been squeezing them ever lower for the last 3 months and now we are seeing the effects of that in the marketplace.
This will only lead to more investors leaving the platform and others like my good self substantially reducing my exposure here.
I am man enough to admit I am feeling a bit nervous at the moment. I put about 10K up for sale last night at just past midnight and today I have sold about 2.5k of it. I am waiting until the midnight hour before putting in my withdrawal request and I am hopeful of a few more sales tomorrow but it will be a slower process than I expected it to be a week ago.
Over the last couple of weeks we have seen some major repayments in addition to an interest run and it has barely made a dent in the secondary market. The weather has changed and I think we're talking about permanent climate change here rather than a one off wet summer.
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ben
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Post by ben on May 1, 2017 22:00:03 GMT
I wonder if the fans of due diligence and checking out the security and veracity of the valuation report would put their money where their mouths are and invest in a defaulted loan over and above one with say 200 days to run if the security looked sounder on the defaulted loan than on the 200 day to run loan. Personally I doubt it. Activity on the secondary market suggests that the majority of investors operate like I do and that only fools or the very brave willingly hold loans to term end. Why would they want to invest in a defaulted loan, as by then most would already most likely have what they wanted in the loan anyway. I am willing to hold to the end, why? I have spent a bit a time on google checked the basic facts, checked the borrower and done the sums and I am happy that they actually add up or if the project fails it be worth someone else taking it over. Lendy have a few very good loans the only problem is they are in the minority not the majortity.
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on May 1, 2017 22:20:13 GMT
I wonder if the fans of due diligence and checking out the security and veracity of the valuation report would put their money where their mouths are and invest in a defaulted loan over and above one with say 200 days to run if the security looked sounder on the defaulted loan than on the 200 day to run loan. Personally I doubt it. Activity on the secondary market suggests that the majority of investors operate like I do and that only fools or the very brave willingly hold loans to term end. No - the majority of investors don't do that. If they did, you wouldn't be able to do what you are doing You have found a system that has worked due to the conditions being favourable. There is a good chance that they won't be so favourable forever Your opening statement makes no sense because most investors are not that stupid; investing in a loan with the intention of holding to maternity, but selling if the SM allows you to is different to investing in every loan with the hope that you can sell it Like you, I have had 12% returns from SS; no losses. My strategy is not much different to yours, but when the SM does go static (maybe because investors panic after the defaulted takes effect... or maybe it won't; who knows), then I will be happy with my the loan parts that I hold, even if they do default. If you think I am a fool, then we have something in common Am I going to be an uncle?! 
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
Posts: 787
Likes: 424
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Post by skippyonspeed on May 1, 2017 22:28:13 GMT
You should take precautions before using it.......try a condom!  |
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GeorgeT
Member of DD Central
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Post by GeorgeT on May 1, 2017 22:43:28 GMT
I wonder if the fans of due diligence and checking out the security and veracity of the valuation report would put their money where their mouths are and invest in a defaulted loan over and above one with say 200 days to run if the security looked sounder on the defaulted loan than on the 200 day to run loan. Personally I doubt it. Activity on the secondary market suggests that the majority of investors operate like I do and that only fools or the very brave willingly hold loans to term end. No - the majority of investors don't do that. If they did, you wouldn't be able to do what you are doing You have found a system that has worked due to the conditions being favourable. There is a good chance that they won't be so favourable forever Your opening statement makes no sense because most investors are not that stupid; investing in a loan with the intention of holding to maturity, but selling if the SM allows you to is different to investing in every loan with the hope that you can sell it Like you, I have had 12% returns from SS; no losses. My strategy is not much different to yours, but when the SM does go static (maybe because investors panic after the defaulted takes effect... or maybe it won't; who knows), then I will be happy with my the loan parts that I hold, even if they do default. If you think I am a fool, then we have something in common I am invested in all of the prime loans on the platform. As I am sure you are. However a prime loan on this platform is relative. Despite having the majority of my stake in what I would describe as the best loans I would not be confident of holding a single one of them until maturity. All manner of events could arise which could make even the best go bad. Personally, I think if you or anybody else is so confident about your loans that you are happy to hold until the end that perhaps a reality check is in order. In simple terms if the loan was that great why has it been financed through a high interest platform like this one and not from a lower interest and more mainstream lender. My investment strategy is evolving day by day in response to changing events but my underlying strategy of buying into anything that is offering 12% and then selling out at the pertinent time remains in place for the time being. By way of example I was well aware of the background to the problematic West Country loans both in Somerset and Gloucestershire yet I invested in them because it was always my intention to exit after profiting for a few months. There are West London based loans near a river paying 12% where I am sure others have adopted a similar plan. I have been investing in various areas for 20 years or so and I have been active in the P2P sector for about 4 years now and I can honestly say I have never lost a penny of my money. I would say that my track record of success, underpinned by strategic caution and a finely tuned nose for downturns and difficulties, speaks for itself. The likelihood is that I will no longer be investing with this platform in 6 months time. The evolution of events and the fact that this platform is arguably 2 years further down the failure curve than certain newer kids means I have no intention of sticking around long enough to have to face the music. The publicly available investor information on the website shows that 1000s of investors are tied up in the 14 defaulted loans. I'm not one of them.
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ben
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Post by ben on May 1, 2017 23:03:52 GMT
No - the majority of investors don't do that. If they did, you wouldn't be able to do what you are doing You have found a system that has worked due to the conditions being favourable. There is a good chance that they won't be so favourable forever Your opening statement makes no sense because most investors are not that stupid; investing in a loan with the intention of holding to maturity, but selling if the SM allows you to is different to investing in every loan with the hope that you can sell it Like you, I have had 12% returns from SS; no losses. My strategy is not much different to yours, but when the SM does go static (maybe because investors panic after the defaulted takes effect... or maybe it won't; who knows), then I will be happy with my the loan parts that I hold, even if they do default. If you think I am a fool, then we have something in common I am invested in all of the prime loans on the platform. As I am sure you are. However a prime loan on this platform is relative. Despite having the majority of my stake in what I would describe as the best loans I would not be confident of holding a single one of them until maturity. All manner of events could arise which could make even the best go bad. Personally, I think if you or anybody else is so confident about your loans that you are happy to hold until the end that perhaps a reality check is in order. In simple terms if the loan was that great why has it been financed through a high interest platform like this one and not from a lower interest and more mainstream lender. My investment strategy is evolving day by day in response to changing events but my underlying strategy of buying into anything that is offering 12% and then selling out at the pertinent time remains in place for the time being. By way of example I was well aware of the background to the problematic West Country loans both in Somerset and Gloucestershire yet I invested in them because it was always my intention to exit after profiting for a few months. There are West London based loans near a river paying 12% where I am sure others have adopted a similar plan. I have been investing in various areas for 20 years or so and I have been active in the P2P sector for about 4 years now and I can honestly say I have never lost a penny of my money. I would say that my track record of success, underpinned by strategic caution and a finely tuned nose for downturns and difficulties, speaks for itself. The likelihood is that I will no longer be investing with this platform in 6 months time. The evolution of events and the fact that this platform is arguably 2 years further down the failure curve than certain newer kids means I have no intention of sticking around long enough to have to face the music. The publicly available investor information on the website shows that 1000s of investors are tied up in the 14 defaulted loans. I'm not one of them. So from your investment strategy your not realling investing your are just gambling, hoping that someone else will take your loans of you.
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r1200gs
Member of DD Central
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Post by r1200gs on May 1, 2017 23:27:36 GMT
I am invested in all of the prime loans on the platform. As I am sure you are. However a prime loan on this platform is relative. Despite having the majority of my stake in what I would describe as the best loans I would not be confident of holding a single one of them until maturity. All manner of events could arise which could make even the best go bad. Personally, I think if you or anybody else is so confident about your loans that you are happy to hold until the end that perhaps a reality check is in order. In simple terms if the loan was that great why has it been financed through a high interest platform like this one and not from a lower interest and more mainstream lender. My investment strategy is evolving day by day in response to changing events but my underlying strategy of buying into anything that is offering 12% and then selling out at the pertinent time remains in place for the time being. By way of example I was well aware of the background to the problematic West Country loans both in Somerset and Gloucestershire yet I invested in them because it was always my intention to exit after profiting for a few months. There are West London based loans near a river paying 12% where I am sure others have adopted a similar plan. I have been investing in various areas for 20 years or so and I have been active in the P2P sector for about 4 years now and I can honestly say I have never lost a penny of my money. I would say that my track record of success, underpinned by strategic caution and a finely tuned nose for downturns and difficulties, speaks for itself. The likelihood is that I will no longer be investing with this platform in 6 months time. The evolution of events and the fact that this platform is arguably 2 years further down the failure curve than certain newer kids means I have no intention of sticking around long enough to have to face the music. The publicly available investor information on the website shows that 1000s of investors are tied up in the 14 defaulted loans. I'm not one of them. So from your investment strategy your not realling investing your are just gambling, hoping that someone else will take your loans of you. An astounding conclusion.
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GeorgeT
Member of DD Central
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Post by GeorgeT on May 1, 2017 23:28:52 GMT
Re: gambling point above.
Yes.
But in a poker sort of way and not in a horse race sort of way.
Also I would suggest that everybody who invests in platforms such as this one are gambling to an extent. None of us has a crystal ball and none of us can predict the future. All we can do is make informed decisions and trust our instinct and personal strategies.
Whether our strategies are the same or different is irrelevant. If they work for us and we are comfortable with them, that is all that matters.
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GeorgeT
Member of DD Central
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Post by GeorgeT on May 2, 2017 0:01:57 GMT
<snip> Like you, I have had 12% returns from SS; no losses. My strategy is not much different to yours, but when the SM does go static (maybe because investors panic after the defaulted takes effect... or maybe it won't; who knows), then I will be happy with my the loan parts that I hold, even if they do default.<snip> Excuse my selective quotation - done only to save space and focus on the point that interests me. You have been a consistent complainer about the fact that Lendy don't release monitoring surveyor reports on the DFLs so investors don't have up to date valuations and progress reports when new tranches are released. Does your position mean that you don't invest in DFLs? If you do, how could you be happy to hold them to default when you have not had sight of any IMS reports in the year or so since your cash was invested?
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Post by moonshine on May 2, 2017 0:15:30 GMT
FYI - I just dropped c.£65k of PBL 143 on the SM (letting you know so that people don't assume there's a big sell off happening)
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sg
Posts: 68
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Post by sg on May 2, 2017 0:31:29 GMT
FYI - I just dropped c.£65k of PBL 143 on the SM (letting you know so that people don't assume there's a big sell off happening) Having insomnia and nothing better to do at 1:30 am I've just run this backwards through the metrics I use for investing in P2P. I would need an overall investment pot of £43 million to put that much in one loan on Lendy. Please tell me it's true !!
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Post by jackpease on May 2, 2017 6:00:57 GMT
>>>100days; I find that hard to do with my own LY pot as there simply isn't enough good loan parts available to maintain such strategy all the time. I think that's the key point. I do not believe anyone could have predicted the sudden change from 30 days to 100 days a month or so ago (before one needed to sell before 30 days then suddenly that became 100 days). If loans are typically six months or a year long in the first place, this leaves very little time to hold on to loans 'safely'. I wish Lendy would get on and default some loans so we can move on from 'Defaults are inevitable I wonder how Lendy will cope' to an Assetz/FC style equilibrium of new loans being issued and old ones being defaulted and a track record of handling the defaults well/not well so we can see how a post-default Lendy pans out. Jack P
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Post by lendinglawyer on May 2, 2017 9:32:46 GMT
For now, the strategy of GeorgeT (whose honesty I applaud - the views put forward are not popular on here, but not everyone can use the same approach otherwise life would be a bit predictable and boring... And there are a lot of people who preach high and mighty investment approaches but I would be very interested to see their loan books EDIT: and SM dealing history!) looks like it will work for 100+ day 12% loans. I too have used this strategy for certain loans where I have had cash I wanted to utilise and was confident the SM would come to my aid when I wanted to take if off platform/reinvest in something else. Was that risky? Yes. But was it reckless or stupid? I would argue no, as it was always a calculated decision. Currently I don't have money employed in this strategy and given where things are I am in no rush to employ it again. But if circumstances change such that I think it is safe (enough) would I do it again? Yup. It's all about risk/reward, and your own personal appetite for the former. |
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