upland
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Post by upland on Jun 13, 2017 6:13:33 GMT
pbl143 being touted as potential sale and early repayment again. This being a £7 mill loan may wake the sm up a little.. I've decided I'm buying nothing more until Lendy show me some repayments, expect many thinking the same. If they carry on flooding the pipeline then in the words of the great Sir Alan, ............ Simples. Me too. I think that I am starting to hold just a bit too much Lendy and I am sure that many others will feel the same increasingly.
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acky
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Post by acky on Jun 13, 2017 6:30:31 GMT
Likewise I will be investing no more in Lendy. The SM will not come down unless and until most of the following happen: - they clear a large proportion of the defaults - they launch their ISA - they stop issuing more new loans than what's being repaid - they allow trading on the SM at discount/premium (you'll never balance supply and demand in a market where you can't adjust price - simple economics)
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Post by p2plender on Jun 13, 2017 6:34:51 GMT
For sure the sm needs an 'enticement'. I'd like that implemented. Come on Lendy, don't let your hard work thus far unravel. Listen to your investors.
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Post by mrg on Jun 13, 2017 6:59:52 GMT
I think this forum's opinions will be a minority of the overall opinion. I think someone said yesterday that the defaults represent roughly 12% which still makes investing in lendy a good investment given returns are 12% so you are at least getting fair value. On top of that the defaulted loans still hold value (the asset physically exists and can be sold. There are a few I would quite happily pay back the loan myself in exchange for the deeds if lendy allowed that) so returned capital will be greater than 0.
So yes there seems to be issues with liquidity not being as great as some would like. It took me about 2 months to sell out of a loan recently. But I look at it as "I'm getting 12% more than the banks are paying, my money is invested in a security backed loan, and it's still a lot quicker to liquidate than if I tried to sell a property myself, and I'm jot paying fees... what's to moan about?"
Given these reasons I'm still investing, my investment has increased 6x since the pass the parcel players decided to panic sell long dated 12% loans with decent appeal (strategies make sense and buyer checks out). Looking at investor activity tells me I'm not the only one taking advantage of the situation (far from it).
I just wonder if the same people panic selling decent loans will be the first to moan about there being mother on the SM in a few months time?
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on Jun 13, 2017 7:04:59 GMT
I think this forum's opinions will be a minority of the overall opinion. I think someone said yesterday that the d efaults represent roughly 12% which still makes investing in lendy a good investment given returns are 12% so you are at least getting fair value. On top of that the defaulted loans still hold value (the asset physically exists and can be sold. There are a few I would quite happily pay back the loan myself in exchange for the deeds if lendy allowed that) so returned capital will be greater than 0. So yes there seems to be issues with liquidity not being as great as some would like. It took me about 2 months to sell out of a loan recently. But I look at it as "I'm getting 12% more than the banks are paying, my money is invested in a security backed loan, and it's still a lot quicker to liquidate than if I tried to sell a property myself, and I'm jot paying fees... what's to moan about?" Given these reasons I'm still investing, my investment has increased 6x since the pass the parcel players decided to panic sell long dated 12% loans with decent appeal (strategies make sense and buyer checks out). Looking at investor activity tells me I'm not the only one taking advantage of the situation (far from it). I just wonder if the same people panic selling decent loans will be the first to moan about there being mother on the SM in a few months time? Assuming that the other 88% don't default. The percentage which is important is the proportion of loans in default to the total that have matured (possibly about 18% - not sure). Even that is backward looking and may not represent the future.
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acky
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Post by acky on Jun 13, 2017 9:01:16 GMT
I think this forum's opinions will be a minority of the overall opinion. I think someone said yesterday that the defaults represent roughly 12% which still makes investing in lendy a good investment given returns are 12% so you are at least getting fair value. On top of that the defaulted loans still hold value (the asset physically exists and can be sold. There are a few I would quite happily pay back the loan myself in exchange for the deeds if lendy allowed that) so returned capital will be greater than 0. So yes there seems to be issues with liquidity not being as great as some would like. It took me about 2 months to sell out of a loan recently. But I look at it as "I'm getting 12% more than the banks are paying, my money is invested in a security backed loan, and it's still a lot quicker to liquidate than if I tried to sell a property myself, and I'm jot paying fees... what's to moan about?" Given these reasons I'm still investing, my investment has increased 6x since the pass the parcel players decided to panic sell long dated 12% loans with decent appeal (strategies make sense and buyer checks out). Looking at investor activity tells me I'm not the only one taking advantage of the situation (far from it). I just wonder if the same people panic selling decent loans will be the first to moan about there being mother on the SM in a few months time?I don't think even the vultures on this board would sell their mother - or buy someone else's!
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Jun 13, 2017 10:35:11 GMT
I think this forum's opinions will be a minority of the overall opinion. I think someone said yesterday that the defaults represent roughly 12% which still makes investing in lendy a good investment given returns are 12% so you are at least getting fair value. On top of that the defaulted loans still hold value (the asset physically exists and can be sold. There are a few I would quite happily pay back the loan myself in exchange for the deeds if lendy allowed that) so returned capital will be greater than 0. So yes there seems to be issues with liquidity not being as great as some would like. It took me about 2 months to sell out of a loan recently. But I look at it as "I'm getting 12% more than the banks are paying, my money is invested in a security backed loan, and it's still a lot quicker to liquidate than if I tried to sell a property myself, and I'm jot paying fees... what's to moan about?" Given these reasons I'm still investing, my investment has increased 6x since the pass the parcel players decided to panic sell long dated 12% loans with decent appeal (strategies make sense and buyer checks out). Looking at investor activity tells me I'm not the only one taking advantage of the situation (far from it). I just wonder if the same people panic selling decent loans will be the first to moan about there being mother on the SM in a few months time? The forum users will be an active minority and therefore can be overlooked if you are interested in a wider view of lender sentiment. The best guage of that we have is the SM which you are taking advantage of and will shortly have the further opportunity to invest in the Pickering and Liverpool tranches now pipelined. In a relatively benign environment (low interest rates, property prices reviving from the 2008 crash) and during SS' growth phase no investors have lost a penny. If you are using the Ly measure of default ie >180D passed due repayment, then this will be 23M by Thursday (assuming the complexities of the energy loan preclude repayment by then) which will represent 13.6% of the live loan book. If you add 10.6M loans that have not been repaid by the contractual repayment date and for which a formal extension has not been agreed - a more classic definition of loan defaults - this is then a fifth of the current book. That will grow almost daily just as some of these loans will extend and have interest serviced (as to be expected in bridging/development lending) but it may furnish investors with a more prudent starting point than Lendy's more generous definition.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Jun 13, 2017 13:35:33 GMT
pbl143 being touted as potential sale and early repayment again. This being a £7 mill loan may wake the sm up a little.. ... but presumably not this month - if they're merely "in negotiations" about a "potential sale", it would seem likely to take weeks or months to actually complete. That seems to me more like one to potentially shake up the SM after the summer.
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r1200gs
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Post by r1200gs on Jun 14, 2017 11:04:31 GMT
I was just checking out the updates on default loans and discovered, to my amazement, that somebody has bought defaulted loan parts this very day. With the SM heaving with choice loans, he buys defaulted loan parts? Unbelievable.
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ped
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Post by ped on Jun 14, 2017 13:04:56 GMT
It has been said before, some people will buy anything!
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warn
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Curmudgeon
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Post by warn on Jun 14, 2017 13:07:59 GMT
It has been said before, some people will buy anything! And do doubt will be said again. And again... And again...
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GeorgeT
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Post by GeorgeT on Jun 14, 2017 13:38:09 GMT
But let's not forget that the people who were derided as idiots on here for buying into the garden centre loan when it was in default turned out to be winners - receiving 100% of their capital back plus 12% interest on top!
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Jun 14, 2017 14:03:05 GMT
But let's not forget that the people who were derided as idiots on here for buying into the garden centre loan when it was in default turned out to be winners - receiving 100% of their capital back plus 12% interest on top! Yes it turned out ok for them, as it happened.Your comment is like someone playing Russian roulette who holds the gun to their head and fires. Turns out to be an empty chamber , and they say, "You see, this game isn't dangerous at all !!"
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ped
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Post by ped on Jun 14, 2017 14:13:16 GMT
Place your bets when the next tranche of DFL19 goes live will there be over 1M of it on the SM ? Y / N
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twoheads
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Post by twoheads on Jun 14, 2017 16:20:39 GMT
The SM will not come down unless and until most of the following happen: - they clear a large proportion of the defaults - they launch their ISA - they stop issuing more new loans than what's being repaid - they allow trading on the SM at discount/premium (you'll never balance supply and demand in a market where you can't adjust price - simple economics) Lendy are attempting to grow their business so they have to generally issue more loans (in value) than are being repaid.
I think the problem is that they're not finding new lenders quickly enough. Currently, they are generating too many new loans and there isn't enough money to go round. That affects confidence which makes matters worse.
I certainly agree that a slow down of new loans is necessary but they are unlikely to reduce it to the level of repayments. All your points would help with the possible exception of allowing discounts and premia on the SM: that change could well turn some people off.
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