bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Nov 22, 2016 9:25:57 GMT
james do you have a good source for CAPE data by country? I started investing a few years ago, buying a selection of the cheapest including emerging markets, but then I lost access to the data I have, and I haven't been able to find a good source. I was looking quarterly. (I wouldn't recommend such a strategy as the cost of stomach ulcer medication might exceed any possible out-performance. In part I stopped because many seem highly correlated to each other through oil. I was looking for some historical data to see if I could extract the correlations.)
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stevio
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Post by stevio on Nov 22, 2016 10:20:34 GMT
Is this the same with the similar AB loans? No Ablrate deal that has cars on HP comes to mind. Closest that come to my mind are the car dealer stocking loans and since they are stock they are in the possession of the dealers. If you think one does do HP please say which it is with enough specificity for me to identify it. Yes, the car dealer stocking loans In the same way AE can't walk off with the security because its in the hands of their borrowers, could not the same be said of ACF because the security is in the hands of their borrowers Also, be interested to hear your thoughts on Collateral? There is already a lot of information 'around'
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james
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Post by james on Nov 22, 2016 10:31:52 GMT
No Ablrate deal that has cars on HP comes to mind. Closest that come to my mind are the car dealer stocking loans and since they are stock they are in the possession of the dealers. If you think one does do HP please say which it is with enough specificity for me to identify it. Yes, the car dealer stocking loans In the same way AE can't walk off with the security because its in the hands of their borrowers, could not the same be said of ACF because the security is in the hands of their borrowers To some extent, yes, but there's not really the 50% HP payment portion. I'm happy to be in the stocking loans that are offered for different lenders at both MoneyThing and Ablrate. Also, be interested to hear your thoughts on Collateral? There is already a lot of information 'around' Still evaluating them, premature to express an opinion. Haven't rejected them yet, at least, so that's somewhat positive.  On the negative is lack of business name identification for borrowers and given that who you are lending to is of critical importance that's a strong negative factor. To give some idea, a friend of mine bought a diamond in the NY diamond district that had a suitably nice certificate attesting to its quality. Shame the diamond that was handed over wasn't the one the certificate was for and that one was worth far less. Said friend was married to a lawyer so that eventually turned out OK without large costs. Whether Collateral's buyers will still buy the goods off Collateral* for the declared value if the description turns out to be wrong in a similar sort of way is an interesting question. A business with a good name won't do this, for a business or individual with a bad one you'd better have physical possession of the security and independent valuation. Collateral does at least some of that but still this is my biggest current reservation. *Collateral does sale and buy back so Collateral is the owner, not the person/business who sold the item to Collateral to get the money. Which in turn leads to the related issue of whether Collateral will default on its loan if the person who sold the property to them doesn't buy it back and the description turns out not to be true.
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stevio
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Post by stevio on Nov 24, 2016 21:20:24 GMT
What the FIC is a FIC?
What other investments are outperforming P2P and what returns are you seeing?
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Nov 24, 2016 22:08:37 GMT
Family Investment Company. Simply a non-trading limited or unlimited company registered in England or Wales but used to hold personal investments by proxy. There are lots of benefits but the main one is paying CT instead of IT and be able to time how you withdraw money to make it more tax efficient. To be worthwhile, I would think you need at least 6 figures in there.
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Nov 24, 2016 23:26:26 GMT
Outperformance is always subjective based upon time horizon but if we take when I first started reading this forum in late 2013 then my P2P investments have generated a total return slightly north of 30% but taxed. In comparison my S&P trackers have generated 40% in USD (almost 70% in GBP), my long-dated gilt trackers 40% (60% when I took profit in August) and my hedge fund investment 55% in USD (85% in GBP), all tax-wrapped in ISA, SIPP or offshore life insurance bond and with no effort on my part. My "asset-rich" private equity portfolio looks to be returning around 85%, albeit that is over 4 years, includes the 30% EIS tax credit and I haven't exited all of them yet so I might not want to count my chickens. Basically investing in the last few years has been like shooting fish in a barrel: invest in just about any asset and you made money. "Carry trades" like P2P worked just fine but ever easier monetary policy and ever lower long-dated bond yields (making the PV of any cashflow generating asset so much higher) have favoured assets with capital gain potential. Of course that doesn't mean it will continue but that's another debate. why is it that just when I feel like I have a grasp on investing, you come along and make me feel like a gibbering idiot?  Congratulations on your excellent returns and consider me very jealous. I just wish I understood how to copy your trades. You should consider running a thread for us small fry to tag along in your wake.
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stevio
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Post by stevio on Nov 25, 2016 7:08:44 GMT
locutus . I appreciate the compliment but it's nothing to do with my skill. Ignoring my quirkier investments (including P2P of course) the fact is that anybody who invested in bog-standard global 70:30 equity/bond passive tracker portfolio inside a SIPP/ISA has done extraordinarily well over the past few years. Who needs skill when you have every major global central bank putting a floor under asset prices! Of course if they ever pull away the floor ... I too complement your 'outstanding' successes and concede, your knowledge of investments and maximizing the tax benefits far succeeds mine! Particularly with the dip in the £, surprisingly high returns on gilts and a ever decreasing panicked stock market I did invest in funds via SIPP and ISA, firstly trying to pick funds that outperformed the market, which they did for a while, then realized those that outperform often dip well below the market cyclically....along with charges eroding any meager gains, so tried low cost trackers, but unfortunately by then I had given up with equities and loved the almost immediate returns from P2P
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on Nov 25, 2016 8:54:52 GMT
Past performance is no guide to the future. Anyone can show how they could have made money retrospectively. You can double your money in seconds in any casino. Or lose it. Nobody really knows how the vast and unprecedented experiment in inventing money will play out, but my gut feeling is that it will not be good. My instincts say that there is no such thing as a free lunch and I guess that applies to governments and central banks. We will see.
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