SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Jun 29, 2018 11:48:08 GMT
We will only know once the dust settles. If, for example, you have 100k tied up in a defaulted loan and it takes 3 years to get a 50% recovery then you’ve lost more than 50k. You have to factor that too. In my current position I haven’t lost a pansy, as Lendy keeps telling me. Well, unless you have at least £2 million in your Lendy account, sticking £100k in a single loan is ludicrous. A fool and their money ....
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jun 29, 2018 11:51:33 GMT
We will only know once the dust settles. If, for example, you have 100k tied up in a defaulted loan and it takes 3 years to get a 50% recovery then you’ve lost more than 50k. You have to factor that too. In my current position I haven’t lost a penny, as Lendy keeps telling me. That should hopefully be an uncommon worse than expected outcome. I have genuinely not lost a penny in 4 years, but in wolves and herc so may happen yet.
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Post by charliebrown on Jun 29, 2018 11:55:02 GMT
Well, only (a significant amount of) time will tell us.
Enjoy Cowes week, Lendy:
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picnicman
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Post by picnicman on Jun 29, 2018 13:23:35 GMT
We will only know once the dust settles. If, for example, you have 100k tied up in a defaulted loan and it takes 3 years to get a 50% recovery then you’ve lost more than 50k. You have to factor that too. In my current position I haven’t lost a penny, as Lendy keeps telling me. That should hopefully be an uncommon worse than expected outcome. I have genuinely not lost a penny in 4 years, but in wolves and herc so may happen yet. I am thankfully in the SteveT camp  , but not so rich! I genuinely hope that DFL004/DFL012 pay out in full for you, although I do feel for those that are about to/have lost hard earned funds. 
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Post by picanto on Jun 29, 2018 14:22:30 GMT
There’s another thread asking what’s Lendy’s real rate of interest. I feel that once the dust settles you’ll have needed the luck of the gods to have made any interest at all, and more than likely most people will have lost a significant amount of capital. Lendy’s model is broken for investors, it’s not a risk it’s financial suicide. Do you honestly believe that? For me to lose the money I have gained in interest over the past 20 months since I first invested money in Lendy's platform, I would have to be extremely unlucky and Lendy would have to fail miserably from this point on. I'm expecting some loans to lose capital, but I also expect most of the outstanding capital in the default loans to be recovered. But like you said, you have to wait until the dust settles before anybody knows.
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Jun 29, 2018 15:08:23 GMT
" I also expect most of the outstanding capital in the default loans to be recovered"
Blimey picanto, that's CONFIDENT!
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Post by picanto on Jun 29, 2018 16:49:04 GMT
" I also expect most of the outstanding capital in the default loans to be recovered"Blimey picanto, that's CONFIDENT! Possibly, but the overall LTV in the non-performing loans is 66%, so providing the original valuations aren't massively out like PBL155 then I can see a reasonable amount of capital being recovered. I'm not expecting interest paid in any of these since I hold the view that any interest paid on defaulted loans is a bonus, but I can't foresee a situation were I'm going to lose so much capital in the future which would cancel out the overall interest I have accrued since I joined Lendy. Lendy have had some reasonable success in recovering capital in troubled loans in the past and I'm happy to bide my time and wait a couple of years for Lendy to recover the capital in the defaulted loans; but it would take a significant number of my current loans to end up with lost capital to make me return an overall loss, that's my main point. I still think DFL012 is reasonably safe; but I could afford a loss on it if that's what eventually happens.
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invester
P2P Blogger
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Post by invester on Jun 29, 2018 17:18:32 GMT
Anyone that started investing in Lendy in 2015/2016 would be sitting on a load of interest.
Started running down things and I am up to interest/balance ratio of 30%, which is only going to go up as I make further withdrawals.
Looking back there was no skill involved, just good luck, then maybe the luck ran out. Had a couple of mistakes I made in the early days which were good lessons in the end: being too complacent and ramping up my minimum/loan: also not realising tranches could go to very high levels and funding these increases exposure.
I cannot complain really. I know Lendy have got a serious job on their hands, and I don't think I would be totally out, just that very few things have come onto the platform that I want to invest in.
Some straightforward smaller developments with realistic valuations would be a nice start. I feel that the sheer size of some of these projects just increases the risk of problems happening.
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Post by samford71 on Jun 29, 2018 18:25:48 GMT
There’s another thread asking what’s Lendy’s real rate of interest. I feel that once the dust settles you’ll have needed the luck of the gods to have made any interest at all, and more than likely most people will have lost a significant amount of capital. Lendy’s model is broken for investors, it’s not a risk it’s financial suicide. The issue is mainly about timing. Those of us who came into SS in late 13 (or even early 15) will have built up a substantial cushion of interest, those that came in in early 17 will not and their return numbers will reflect this. P2P is a pro-cyclical product and, like any other asset, if you trade early you will do well and if you trade late you probably won't. We ran a small control portfolio against our larger algo portfolio over 2015 through to now. While it didn't hold every single loan, it did hold a random selection. It hasn't bought any new loans since 1H17 (when we exited SS with the algo portfolio). It went from £20k in 1H15 to peak at £60k in 1H16 and then has decayed in value to just £13k as loans have redeemed. The majority of that remaining £13k is in defaulted loans. It includes some of the well known disaster loans like the Welsh Castle, early DFLs etc. Assuming an average 70% recovery on the loans that have defaulted, then the annual return will be 6.4%. Basically, it made around 12-13% in 2015-16, 10% in 2017 and may well lose 10% in 2018. Compare that to the larger algo portfolio we ran. That held between £1.5-£2mm in loans between 1H15 through 1H17, before exiting completely. It earned over 12% in return terms or c£480k in interest (note this was spread over 10+ accounts so c £40k each). If it turns out the average performance of SS is going to be 6.5% but a number of investors earned 12%+, then by conservation of returns, some investors must be looking at flat returns or losses. That is type of return distribution you have to have with a fixed income product where the maximum gain is capped at say 12-13% but with many earning 8-10%, still above the mean. You need a strong downside left tail to balance it up.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Jun 29, 2018 20:04:17 GMT
Any ideas on what happened to the smaller projects they were running? Why aren't they doing any of that now, wouldn't it allow diversification within their offer?
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pence
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Post by pence on Jun 30, 2018 10:35:04 GMT
There’s another thread asking what’s Lendy’s real rate of interest. I feel that once the dust settles you’ll have needed the luck of the gods to have made any interest at all, and more than likely most people will have lost a significant amount of capital. Lendy’s model is broken for investors, it’s not a risk it’s financial suicide. The issue is mainly about timing. Those of us who came into SS in late 13 (or even early 15) will have built up a substantial cushion of interest, those that came in in early 17 will not and their return numbers will reflect this. P2P is a pro-cyclical product and, like any other asset, if you trade early you will do well and if you trade late you probably won't. We ran a small control portfolio against our larger algo portfolio over 2015 through to now. While it didn't hold every single loan, it did hold a random selection. It hasn't bought any new loans since 1H17 (when we exited SS with the algo portfolio). It went from £20k in 1H15 to peak at £60k in 1H16 and then has decayed in value to just £13k as loans have redeemed. The majority of that remaining £13k is in defaulted loans. It includes some of the well known disaster loans like the Welsh Castle, early DFLs etc. Assuming an average 70% recovery on the loans that have defaulted, then the annual return will be 6.4%. Basically, it made around 12-13% in 2015-16, 10% in 2017 and may well lose 10% in 2018. Compare that to the larger algo portfolio we ran. That held between £1.5-£2mm in loans between 1H15 through 1H17, before exiting completely. It earned over 12% in return terms or c£480k in interest (note this was spread over 10+ accounts so c £40k each). If it turns out the average performance of SS is going to be 6.5% but a number of investors earned 12%+, then by conservation of returns, some investors must be looking at flat returns or losses. That is type of return distribution you have to have with a fixed income product where the maximum gain is capped at say 12-13% but with many earning 8-10%, still above the mean. You need a strong downside left tail to balance it up. Very interesting. I have a whole bunch of questions . So you are an institutional investor and the 10+ accounts were client accounts? Why did you decide to exit SS - where do you invest your money now if I may ask? "algo-portfolio" does that mean you had a program buying/selling ?
Really looking forward to your reply.
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Post by charliebrown on Jun 30, 2018 11:05:35 GMT
Liverpool Echo ran a story about the project failing. I won’t post a link because I’m not sure whether it’s allowed, but you can Google the project name along with the words “nightmare for investors”. Article states that the borrower intends to fight Lendy.
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Jun 30, 2018 11:35:43 GMT
Liverpool Echo ran a story about the project failing. I won’t post a link because I’m not sure whether it’s allowed, but you can Google the project name along with the words “nightmare for investors”. Article states that the borrower intends to fight Lendy. You can provide it on DD Central, if not a member I can take it over for you. Edit - done.
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Jeepers
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Post by Jeepers on Jun 30, 2018 12:14:00 GMT
From the article:
Ailish had put down a £27,000 deposit for a flat in...
Who ranks first: the purchaser or Lendy?
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jun 30, 2018 12:25:46 GMT
From the article: Ailish had put down a £27,000 deposit for a flat in... Who ranks first: the purchaser or Lendy? Lendy is the first charge holder so in terms of enforceable security is the controlling party. However, in the case of flat purchasers depends on when they placed the deposit & whether it is protected by a UN registered at the LR. If she registered a UN ahead of Lendys charge then it ranks in front of Lendy in terms of having a claim on proceeds or having to be factored in by a purchaser. This is why the GDV valuation has been reduced to take into account prior ranking UNs. UNs effective reduce the realisable value as any purchaser would have to honour the contracts as they are not cancelled by sale to a third party. The alternative is that the administrator.reciever has to go to court to get clean title (as happened with BH on MT) which AIUI removes all the charges/notices and Lendy would then have security under the floating charge/debenture (which crystallises as a fixed charge over company assets on appointment)
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, but not so rich! I genuinely hope that DFL004/DFL012 pay out in full for you, although I do feel for those that are about to/have lost hard earned funds. 
