aju
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Post by aju on Jul 1, 2017 10:40:10 GMT
June has turned out to be my worst month ever!! £78.88 - £68.29 = £10.59. Projected return 6.5% Includes £1634 in Classic. £68.45 - £58.33 = £10.12. Projected return 6.4%. Incudes £2757 in Classic. It appears that all my Plus interest is being wiped out by defaults. just curious are they all £10 or less that have defaulted and are they all Plus defaults. I've been very lucky in plus so far but I think next month will give me a hammering, and its getting worse it seems. I only have £1000 in plus with nearly 10 times that in classic but classic is still SG at the moment I don;t even bother about that as they will all be paid off anyway. I have many defaults from old pre-safeguard days but they are mostly paying off over a much longer period granted but only 5 have gone bankrupt or settled. Of my Pre-SG defaults 50% of money has been returned but to be fair I wrote most of them off some good while ago. I've never made an actual loss as yet - far from it. Thats not to say I won't in the future though ;-) as the old adage - past performance is not an indicator of future performance - is always there to catch us out.
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Post by ogwellian on Jul 1, 2017 11:06:31 GMT
All Zopa+.
First account 7 x £10 loans. All deposits were below £2k to get £10 parts.
Second account 1 x £10 and 1 x £60. Account opened with £6k, so 100 £60 loans.
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Post by newlender on Jul 1, 2017 11:53:55 GMT
June 2017...Interest £98 Defaults £40, so yes a bad month. If you're feeling strong, check your total in 'Collections'. I have 31; I realise that they won't all default but even so. (Overwhelmingly Z+loans.)
I'm not putting any more new money into Z+, just sticking with Core. I'll let my current Plus portfolio wither away by reinvesting repayments into ISA Core - my % return makes it worthwhile not to sell out in July (just!). Kev said somewhere here that the problem has always been finding quality borrowers - Zopa has more money than it can lend out most of the time. I think that Z+ is a well-intentioned way of satisfying lender demand but I feel that there's something not quite right with the model as it stands currently.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jul 1, 2017 13:18:48 GMT
My losses are within expected this month, but were well over last month. Looking at averages it seems that my overall rate is levelling off a bit above the predicted (although the trend is still slightly downwards), so maybe Zopa's model is right.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jul 1, 2017 15:18:27 GMT
Whilst I get it that people are seeing a load of defaults I wondered how long the investments have been running. As i said i'm going to get a bit of a hit soon as my collections and arrangements have gone up in the last month or 2, still only a single default in plus but that won't last at the moment. my stats are as follows.
For me I have 130 active £10 loans or which I have
1 arrangement (Has paid partially last 2 months not yet checked how much)
5 collections (one never started and is now in financial difficulties !!!)
1 default
so realistically that £70 in jeopardy but, and its big BUT, so far my experience tells me that it might take a long while but in fact of all my defaults 50% has been returned and its still returning albeit slowly.
One other thing I do is try and see this as a whole investment. 10% plus 90% classic, of course by december that may have to be revised as the default in my SG stuff are currently being paid back by the fund.
Additionally zopa is not my only investment, its being ramped up a little with the ISA but its still about 20% of our total investment
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Post by blanik on Jul 2, 2017 16:05:54 GMT
Zopa+ is back to giving a double +ve return this month.
I accept that I will receive bad debts in Z+ so that doesn't worry me - I would expect to lose roughly 40% of my gross interest.
For me - Started Z+ 15 moths ago - I lost 29% of my June income to defaults - so better than expected. xirr for 2017 is now 3.7%.
Mrs B - Started Z+ 9 months ago, and topped up in Core this month - lost 33% of her income - so also slightly better than expected, Both of her defaults were £10 ones from Jan so not part of her initial lump sum. xirr for 2017 now 5.4%.
So things may be starting to improve.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jul 2, 2017 17:38:41 GMT
I've seen people mention xirr, and I know how to do it simply with my year end stuff but was curious how you do it on a rolling investment view. Do you use the statements tables or just the all_time_loan csv or both.
It would be useful if you could give an example how you are doing it, especially with it being quite fluid on a month on month basis. Or at least what fields you are collating together etc.
Sorry if this is so simple I should know how to do it by now.
How are you dealing with say defaults that are not paying etc.
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Post by blanik on Jul 2, 2017 18:40:07 GMT
I've seen people mention xirr, and I know how to do it simply with my year end stuff but was curious how you do it on a rolling investment view. Do you use the statements tables or just the all_time_loan csv or both. It would be useful if you could give an example how you are doing it, especially with it being quite fluid on a month on month basis. Or at least what fields you are collating together etc. Sorry if this is so simple I should know how to do it by now. How are you dealing with say defaults that are not paying etc. I use xirr for each additions and withdraws of capital to my account to see what the real return is, so I only look at money deposited and withdrawn - not reinvestment. so for 2017 I have 01/01/2017 -4380 opening balance 15/05/2017 200 15/06/2017 200 02/07/2017 4059 closing balance So I took out £200 pm - so that is included in the calculation. Mrs B has 01/01/2017 -8141 15/05/2017 400 15/06/2017 -4800 02/07/2017 12768 So she took money out, then put a lump sum into Core. So these changes in capital are reflected in the real rate of interest we achieved. Including delays when money is sitting in the processing queue. Edit - the balance comes from the investment total on the summary page. So will go down with defaults, and up with bad debt recovery,
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aju
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Post by aju on Jul 2, 2017 23:40:57 GMT
Ah I see thats what I do on year on year so I think I understand now.
I still haven't been able to find a way of understanding how to watch the reinvested and closed loans other than the simple stuff in the tax statement. Perhaps I will try and understand it over the next few months and get it working.
I have also been recording monthly statements in a spreadsheet and might try and see if I can get XIRR working against that, although I'd really like to do it for the Plus and Core rather than the whole investment.
Thanks for the info though.
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Post by blanik on Jul 3, 2017 12:33:05 GMT
I have also been recording monthly statements in a spreadsheet and might try and see if I can get XIRR working against that, although I'd really like to do it for the Plus and Core rather than the whole investment. If you invested a lump sum, have made no withdrawls or additions, and re-invested in the same product. Then you should only need to put in a Plus opening balance at any date you wanted ( say 1/1/17 ), a Plus closing balance ( say 30./6/17 ) and xirrr would calculate the Plus return over that period.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jul 3, 2017 22:14:54 GMT
I wish it were that simple sadly I turned off re-investment in classic to get £1000 to invest in plus, trouble is I can't actually remember how much I really lent as it returned more than a 1000 - probably 1040 odd before I turned it off - so my figures would be skewed a little. I'll do a bit of digging in my spreadsheets to see what I lent out to get the start figure. Obviously the end figure is a little easier.
Thanks for the simple approach.( I did have a yearly update sheet that was monitoring xirr, based on start/end of fin year figures, before plus started but its fallen by the wayside)
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jul 30, 2017 7:01:22 GMT
Another bad month this month, only just in the black. To be fair a lot of the default was due to two biggish loans going down, I foolishly put in a large lump sum at one point which is still working it's way through the system. Rate trend now looking definitely downward, not levelling off.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jul 31, 2017 8:19:22 GMT
Another bad month this month, only just in the black. To be fair a lot of the default was due to two biggish loans going down, I foolishly put in a large lump sum at one point which is still working it's way through the system. Rate trend now looking definitely downward, not levelling off. Just sold out my Plus Account. Net return looks like it is going to be about -5% for 12 months.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jul 31, 2017 8:43:37 GMT
Another bad month this month, only just in the black. To be fair a lot of the default was due to two biggish loans going down, I foolishly put in a large lump sum at one point which is still working it's way through the system. Rate trend now looking definitely downward, not levelling off. Just sold out my Plus Account. Net return looks like it is going to be about -5% for 12 months. How on earth are you managing such a poor return? -5%pa? I've had a plus account since it opened and it seems to be performing more or less in line with expectations. Have you contacted Zopa?
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jul 31, 2017 10:42:44 GMT
Just sold out my Plus Account. Net return looks like it is going to be about -5% for 12 months. How on earth are you managing such a poor return? -5%pa? I've had a plus account since it opened and it seems to be performing more or less in line with expectations. Have you contacted Zopa? No and if I was the only person making a loss on their Plus account I probably would think something odd was going on - but there seems to be others on this forum also making a loss. Given the sums involved I am not going to lose any sleep over it but I am running down my holding of Zopa as my funds covered by the provision fund expire. The -5% assumes that the payments in arrears at the time of sell out are defaults.
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