pip
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Post by pip on Feb 21, 2017 17:19:36 GMT
Checked my February to date monthly statement, I have made, no, make that I have lost £26.78.
I get it losses happen but there appears to be a fair few working through.
Also don't like the way that on performance it only shows late payments, not amount on loan that's late. You may have £1 that is late but if that's the first £1 out of 60, showing £1 is not really transparent, it's £60 that is looking smelly.
Let's see one swallow does not a summer make.
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Post by sleepy on Feb 21, 2017 22:33:24 GMT
Checked my February to date monthly statement, I have made, no, make that I have lost £26.78. I get it losses happen but there appears to be a fair few working through. Also don't like the way that on performance it only shows late payments, not amount on loan that's late. You may have £1 that is late but if that's the first £1 out of 60, showing £1 is not really transparent, it's £60 that is looking smelly. Let's see one swallow does not a summer make. I've not been a member of Zopa long but have noticed seen bad debts appearing on the statement over last few months but thankfully not so much they've overtaken my gains as yet (touch wood). Was a bit of a shock at first but I'm new to this and a friend in the know said it's to be expected and after looking at my numbers said they were within expected limits given the interest rates quoted and default rates. I will be keeping a close eye on them in future though - especially one loan that looks like it will default next month with the borrower never making a single payment. I agree that it would definitely be more helpful to show the amount of capital at risk from the late payments if they default as well as the payments themselves.
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Post by BrianC on Feb 21, 2017 23:58:47 GMT
Had my first default in Z+ this month for just under £10. This will be around 7-8% of my profit for the month so not too bad on the bottom line. However... my loan book overview says 18 borrowers have missed payments. So 18 further potential defaults at the moment. Considering a lot of my money was invested 4-6 months ago there is every possibility that these 18 borrowers could all reach the 4 month default date in the coming weeks or next few months. That could potentially lead me in to a monthly loss one month.
Now to be fair, I have over 1300 loans in Z+ and only 18 have missed payments atm so that looks good, but if other loans keep missing it would only take 10 a month before I'm making no profit at all.
I'm still positive generally about Z+ but the next 6 months will reveal all for me. For now I've scaled back my investments in plus whilst I see how the defaults continue.
On the other hand if all those missed loans are caught up then I'm doing exceptionally well and earning over 11%!
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Greenwood2
Member of DD Central
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Post by Greenwood2 on Feb 22, 2017 8:10:20 GMT
My own estimate of monthly rate after losses is now running close to the projected (not allowing for tax relief). I've been in plus since Mar' 16.
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Post by newlender on Feb 22, 2017 9:48:30 GMT
Yes, I'm a bit above the projected rate after defaults but there are quite a few missed payments stacking up so more defaults to come, I fear. One thing that strikes me is just how fast money in Z+ is matched (I mean new money, not reinvestment). That suggests that they have an awful lot of borrowers who can't finance elsewhere and will pay high rates. I know that's the idea, hence the projection after defaults, but it worries me a bit in view of a possible dip in the economy. It would be nice to be able to re-invest differently in the three products so that I could gently remove money from Z+ whilst continuing to re-invest into the others.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Feb 22, 2017 23:23:33 GMT
I've been with Zopa since March 2005. Over those 12 years, including a debt tsunami in 2008, I have achieved the returns expected. When I micro-managed for any one month, quarter or six months I got very different and variable results - especially in 2008!
Sit back, have a beer 🍻 and chill. The past is a guide to the future when it's consumer behaviour.
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Post by blanik on Feb 23, 2017 10:30:52 GMT
It would be nice to be able to re-invest differently in the three products so that I could gently remove money from Z+ whilst continuing to re-invest into the others. It is possible to automatically reinvest returns from all products ( including Z+ ) in classic which may partially achieve what you want.
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Post by ogwellian on Feb 23, 2017 10:48:04 GMT
Bad month here, too. Two accounts, all income reinvested.
Balance £7,613. £54.87 - £52.90 = £1.97
Balance £10,042. £67.10 - £26.98 = £26.98
£28 on £17,600 over 23 days is way below expectations and a bit worrying. Too many loans defaulting without making any repayments.
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Post by blanik on Feb 23, 2017 11:03:58 GMT
Invested in Z+ from the start. 3 defaults so far this month, and 15 lates, with just under 500 current loans, gives a February profit of £1.81. With 2 defaults in Jan my calculated annualised return from 1st Jan 2017 is 3.5% - still positive but has taken a real hit!
Mrs B started her Z+ account in October 2016 - so a less mature loanbook, 200 loans, no defaults, and 4 late. Her return from 1st Jan is 8.1% ( but 25% of her repayments come in on the 24th of the month - so this should improve in the next few days ).
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pip
Posts: 542
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Post by pip on Feb 23, 2017 11:37:06 GMT
Thanks for all the comments it's reassuring to know not everybody is doing as badly as me this month. This is my current position month to date:
Balance in Z+ £11,456, 604 loans of which 14 have been missed, interest in month £81.27 (including interest on £2k in zopa safeguarded, I can't work out how to split interest out), new defaults in month £103.22, net loss £21.95.
So it looks like a loss for me this month plus more defaults on the way!
One thing to note is that I have been with Z+ since July last year and Zopa itself a lot lot longer. I didn't have any defaults until January this year, I guess for obvious reasons as their policy is to not default for 4 months. Therefore I would be on guard if you have only been with the product a few months and are not seeing any defaults as they take a while to work through the system. Also remember that the missed payments number is just the missed payments not the capital at risk on those loans, so in my opinion times that number by around 30 (about average loan length) and you will get a rough idea of how much capital you have that is late.
However as I say one swallow doesn't make a summer and so far bar this month Zopa has been good. I am just highlighting that for me I have seen a downturn, in January the defaults started coming in but this month it's bad. Let's hope for my sake it stops.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Feb 24, 2017 12:12:26 GMT
As I say, chill. One month means nothing. NADA. Especially if you've only been in that market for a few months. An annual review is the shortest elapsed time to do any meaningful analysis. Looking at a few weeks is plain uninformative IMHO.
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pip
Posts: 542
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Post by pip on Feb 24, 2017 19:04:29 GMT
As I say, chill. One month means nothing. NADA. Especially if you've only been in that market for a few months. An annual review is the shortest elapsed time to do any meaningful analysis. Looking at a few weeks is plain uninformative IMHO. I'm calm. I agree one month doesn't mean a lot, I'm just saying I've had a bad one! Not sure only looking at a year as a minimum is right but all to their own. Here's to a good year!
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Post by newlender on Feb 24, 2017 23:01:03 GMT
I've had three Z+ defaults in one day today. There is a bit of an acceleration, as has been noted already. One of the defaults is a B borrower too. But overall I'm quids in and my actual rate is still over the estimate for Z+ (but not by much).
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Post by BrianC on Feb 24, 2017 23:58:22 GMT
I've had three Z+ defaults in one day today. There is a bit of an acceleration, as has been noted already. One of the defaults is a B borrower too. But overall I'm quids in and my actual rate is still over the estimate for Z+ (but not by much). You're not wrong about the acceleration. I'm now 3 in the last 4 days. I'm starting to think Zopa may have misjudged this. Whilst over the term lenders may get the expected return, seeing regular defaults without a protection fund could very well scare people off. Also, It's hard doing the maths. I've around 1370 loans and only 3 defaults. However, I'd estimate maybe only between 2 and 400 of those loans are 4 months old and there's lots of missed payments so these defaults could start becoming a regular thing. If all the bad loans default early then surely the only way of getting the estimated 7%ish return is to hold your good plus loans for the term?? But if you have to sell early which I almost certainly will then after early defaults and the 1% exit fee I could end up with a rate worse than if I'd just left it in my 123 current account! Or possibly even worse!? What am I missing?
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Post by newlender on Feb 25, 2017 6:11:20 GMT
The calculations are very complicated but I occasionally sit down with Excel to do them. I've given up recently and do a 'back of the envelope' estimate of how I'm doing. The 'profit to date' sum on the first page is not a bad guide to an overall figure but doesn't really tell you anything about your actual rate. The 'weekly update' is useful too. But the bottom line is that the defaults and late payments in Z+ seem to be stacking up and my income figure each month is going down - given the amount I have invested and the lack of safeguard it seems a bit meagre to be honest. I'm not putting any new money nor reinvestment cash into Z+ from now on. The other two products seem a safer bet and I'll still be using those. But look at the newest weekly update - no queue at all for new money into Z+ and two weeks for Classic - so others are thinking the same way.
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