johni
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Post by johni on Apr 23, 2017 17:19:21 GMT
I have a small investment in plus (just over £1000 split between 167 loans) over 5 months I have had a 3.6% default rate. Annualised that is about 8.5%. So an annual return of 3%. Is this actual defaults or missed payments? This would mean you have had a lot of defaults this month, as the loans only go into default after 4 months. I have over 600 loans and no defaults this month so far. Although 15 lenders have missed payments
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Apr 24, 2017 7:26:06 GMT
Less than expected defaults this month so far. But still time for that to change.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Apr 24, 2017 8:37:48 GMT
I have a small investment in plus (just over £1000 split between 167 loans) over 5 months I have had a 3.6% default rate. Annualised that is about 8.5%. So an annual return of 3%. Is this actual defaults or missed payments? This would mean you have had a lot of defaults this month, as the loans only go into default after 4 months. I have over 600 loans and no defaults this month so far. Although 15 lenders have missed payments These are bad debts that have been written off and closed.
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aju
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Post by aju on Apr 25, 2017 12:08:49 GMT
Is this actual defaults or missed payments? This would mean you have had a lot of defaults this month, as the loans only go into default after 4 months. I have over 600 loans and no defaults this month so far. Although 15 lenders have missed payments These are bad debts that have been written off and closed. Can you clarify whats meant by closed - I have over 37 bad loans, admittedly mostly from the pre-safeguarded era. All of mine are still marked default and many are actually still paying. I admit these are small payments but they are still paying. Some have not paid for over 2 years or more but many are indeed still paying this month, some are paying at least once this year and so on. Once thing about defaults though is that the comments field may say they have paid in a month but not all lenders on the loan may have received a payment. Zopa have assured me that they know who is paid and who is not so they will rotate payments next time - hopefully. I have 5 Zopa+ loans in collections, out of a total zopa+ book of 135 loans, some of the collections are actually going to go default soon (4 months will have passed) some are just behind, their DD's don't seem to be correct a couple seem to be in trouble, one of which has not paid a penny since the loan was opened!. All of them are interest rates higher than 16% and are d&E types. If they all go default and don't pay that will be a hit perhaps but thankfully I am diversified across classic and pre-safeguarded as well. My OH however has a couple of defaults and an arrangement with 1 collection on DD setup issues. Thats in a total of 131 zopa+ loans and again all the loans are above 16% and in D&E markets. All of our loans in zopa+ have been at £10 only.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Apr 25, 2017 14:34:51 GMT
The way I keep track is by looking under statements and selecting April (for instance) under 'Earnings' you see 'Interest earned from borrowers', 'Bad Debt: New Defaults' and 'Bad Debt: Repayments from Defaults' (only the ones with a value will be listed). I'm looking at those figures for each month to track my losses. So far this month 'New Defaults' are within the expected range for the target rate on plus.
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aju
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Post by aju on Apr 25, 2017 16:26:28 GMT
yeah I noticed that in the statements screen after I'd already created an excel spreadsheet that loaded all the statements from when I started and then searched for the relevant name of a borrower etc etc etc. It basically does what the old zopa reports used to do but its not able to say what was expected to be paid on any given month just what was paid and when, taking its data from the statements csv's.
I also noticed that Zopa added the default date in the main loanbooks that is useful but squiffed ( a technical term) all my excel loaders but that's another story. I guess my moaning about the comments field not always having the data for default date was eventually taken on board. Shame they couldn't have moved it to last field to prevent mucking up the excel loaders but at least its a start.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Apr 26, 2017 9:49:25 GMT
Hadn't seen the 'Default Date' column, that's very handy to sort by.
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aju
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Post by aju on Apr 26, 2017 10:31:50 GMT
Hadn't seen the 'Default Date' column, that's very handy to sort by. glad to help, they didn't exactly announce it. ;-)
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marie
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Post by marie on Apr 26, 2017 10:39:19 GMT
Next column they should add: MonthsInArreas. Basically column N divided by column U. That's the easiest way to see how many defaults are looming!
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amphoria
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Post by amphoria on Apr 26, 2017 11:59:38 GMT
I have now had 6 defaults in April, making a total of 16. 14 of my 16 defaults were from June and August 2016 where I made lump sum investments of £1000. The remaining investments are repayments from Classic or Plus and are therefore more spread out. However it looks like I may be past peak default, even for those months. I currently have 9 loans in Collections of which 7 are from June and August, some are making partial payments and only 2 are likely to default in the next 2 months. Intriguingly I made 33 loans in July 2016 (around 30% of June and August) and none and in collections or have defaulted. It does make you wonder if they give you more risky loans when you invest a lump sum or maybe I was just unlucky.
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aju
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Post by aju on Apr 26, 2017 13:56:52 GMT
Next column they should add: MonthsInArreas. Basically column N divided by column U. That's the easiest way to see how many defaults are looming! Now thats an interesting thought! I must check that out edit: the theory is good but only until it goes default I think, its very interesting in that I have a Z+ loan that has missed 4 payments as defined in comments and is marked by the above calc as 4 months 4.06 to be precise. Should go next month I think unless the borrower pays it all off this month ;-) doesn't look likely. The interesting thing is the borrower has made 3 payments since it started in may 2016 yet it has taken this long to go default! must be interesting if I checked the statements.
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marie
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Post by marie on Apr 26, 2017 14:13:15 GMT
Next column they should add: MonthsInArreas. Basically column N divided by column U. That's the easiest way to see how many defaults are looming! Now thats an interesting thought! I must check that out edit: I checked it out and its interesting that many of my defaults have payments in 2016, are still owing > £1 but are not actually in arrears any thoughts anyone. Are you determining that they are currently in a "defaulted state" based on [Default date] being populated? Because I don't think that will always be true. If they have made up all their arrears, they still defaulted once and that was the date that happened. On another note I've got 4 loans that are more than 4 months worth worth of repayments in arrears (and have been since early last week) and they have not been registered as defaults yet... I should really get back to work instead of playing with these spreadsheets!!
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Apr 26, 2017 14:16:11 GMT
These are bad debts that have been written off and closed. Can you clarify whats meant by closed - I have over 37 bad loans, admittedly mostly from the pre-safeguarded era. All of mine are still marked default and many are actually still paying. I admit these are small payments but they are still paying. These are closed as in 4 months no payments and written off. THey are taken from the Monthly summary page. Another bit of information is I asked Zopa today what their average recovery rate is on loans that default and they said 15% this sounds a bit low to me. One of the risks, as someone pointed out, if they get a reputation for being a soft touch on recovering debt they will be targeted by scammers who have no intention of paying anythng back.
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aju
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Post by aju on Apr 26, 2017 14:47:44 GMT
Now thats an interesting thought! I must check that out edit: I checked it out and its interesting that many of my defaults have payments in 2016, are still owing > £1 but are not actually in arrears any thoughts anyone. Are you determining that they are currently in a "defaulted state" based on [Default date] being populated? Because I don't think that will always be true. If they have made up all their arrears, they still defaulted once and that was the date that happened. On another note I've got 4 loans that are more than 4 months worth worth of repayments in arrears (and have been since early last week) and they have not been registered as defaults yet... I should really get back to work instead of playing with these spreadsheets!! You an me both - I changed what I was looking at I was mistakenly looking in all time rather than current. I changed my comments that are similar to yours on the 4 months issue.
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marie
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Post by marie on Apr 26, 2017 14:58:04 GMT
Are you determining that they are currently in a "defaulted state" based on [Default date] being populated? Because I don't think that will always be true. If they have made up all their arrears, they still defaulted once and that was the date that happened. On another note I've got 4 loans that are more than 4 months worth worth of repayments in arrears (and have been since early last week) and they have not been registered as defaults yet... I should really get back to work instead of playing with these spreadsheets!! You an me both - I changed what I was looking at I was mistakenly looking in all time rather than current. I changed my comments that are similar to yours on the 4 months issue. It could be down to not all lenders on the loan having received a payment this "round", as per your comment yesterday? So might still be accurate Edit: Or they might just be a couple of days late actually defaulting them! I have nobody more than a tiny bit over the 4 month mark that are not defaulted yet.
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