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Post by newlender on May 2, 2017 15:12:49 GMT
Shall we put some flesh onto this. What % of your defaulters never paid a penny? I have 11 defaults with 3 who never paid anything = 27.3% (all Z+ borrowers.)
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 2, 2017 18:32:25 GMT
Shall we put some flesh onto this. What % of your defaulters never paid a penny? I have 11 defaults with 3 who never paid anything = 27.3% (all Z+ borrowers.) ie 27.3% of people who defaulted took out a loan they never had any intention of paying off - scammers.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on May 2, 2017 19:34:10 GMT
Defaulted loans repay over an extended period, many of my pre-safeguard defaulted loans are still repaying. The 'Defaults' are going to be ahead of recoveries, a bit like initially there appeared to be no defaults until the 4m threshold appeared. Not sure what period you are talking about for plus I have about 14% of defaults with no payment yet, but most of them are so recent you cannot assume they will not repay at least something.
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amphoria
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Post by amphoria on May 2, 2017 21:40:10 GMT
I have 16 defaults of which 4 have not yet paid a penny. The earliest is from Jun 2016 and the other 3 from Aug 2016.
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Post by newlender on May 3, 2017 5:37:44 GMT
So 25%. I do realise that some defaults get paid back eventually, even partially. I'm not looking at statistically perfect numbers here - I'm just interested to see what % of defaults have never paid anything as things stand in our loan books. Numbers of defaults as a % of my total current loan book are 11/1500 so I'm not moaning at all - if it continues like that I'll be pleased.
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Post by blanik on May 3, 2017 12:11:03 GMT
Very similar numbers here - of my 11 Z+ defaults, 3 have not repaid anything ( 27% ) - out of 510 Z+ loans on Summary page.
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Post by WestonKevTMP on May 3, 2017 16:31:07 GMT
Technically, all of these can be split into those that never had any intention of paying, and fraud impersonation. This presumes someone who had intention could have made at least the first payment from the remains of the loan cash!
There is a difference, because intention by the real borrower is very difficult to ascertain, especially in the higher risk Z+ markets where borrowers will either have a limited history of credit by young/transient/thin credit file customers, or have impaired previous credit. It's in the risk of this lending, especially automated lending with neither manual underwriting nor conversation to ascertain intent.
No payment by fraud impersonation is altogether different. And if many of these loans are fraud, then that is an issue that Zopa should deal with. The impersonation frauds at RateSetter were negligible statistically. I still remember most of their damn names.... And we've had none at The Money Platform.
But we will never know with Zopa's first payment defaults which is which, as they don't report the difference. Not even in the loanbook download. Which is a shame, because in Z+ I would put any fraud losses at the door of Zopa, and lenders should be protected from fraud losses across all lending products. In my opinion.
Kevin.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on May 3, 2017 20:02:00 GMT
As I said in a post above I think fraudulent loans have been repaid to lenders in plus.
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Post by jevans4949 on May 4, 2017 11:29:17 GMT
Since E-class loans are paying interest of 25% (as against <5% for A-class), one can infer that 1 in 5 is expected to fail. You win some, you lose some. That's the way it works with lending. Question is, are you winning over the longer term? And how much is your bank going to give you in your savings account?
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 4, 2017 12:55:27 GMT
Since E-class loans are paying interest of 25% (as against <5% for A-class), one can infer that 1 in 5 is expected to fail. You win some, you lose some. That's the way it works with lending. Question is, are you winning over the longer term? And how much is your bank going to give you in your savings account? I think it is also questionable whether it is moral to lend at 25%. Does anyone know what % of loans given out by Zopa are for cars since there are some people saying this is the next sub prime loan bubble that is going to burst.
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Post by newlender on May 4, 2017 16:24:54 GMT
In that case I'm stuffed! Have just done a search on my Current Loan Book. 501/1515 are for a car. Now, can any clever person tell me how to search for Z+ loans that are for a car? I know it's possible using Excel but to be honest I find that format of the book very cumbersome. Is there a way on the website?
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Post by nickdavies on May 4, 2017 17:16:01 GMT
I think it is also questionable whether it is moral to lend at 25%. Does anyone know what % of loans given out by Zopa are for cars since there are some people saying this is the next sub prime loan bubble that is going to burst. I thought the car thing was to do with manufacturers' lease finance schemes, where the loan is secured against the vehicle. They're very popular and are why you see so many recent high spec cars around these days. Any significant downturn in employment would see a lot of second-hand cars on the market. People borrowing for a car at 30% over five years on Zopa (I've got three of those) have probably got their priorities wrong. How many £500 runabouts would the interest alone buy?
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Post by jevans4949 on May 4, 2017 17:29:24 GMT
Since E-class loans are paying interest of 25% (as against <5% for A-class), one can infer that 1 in 5 is expected to fail. You win some, you lose some. That's the way it works with lending. Question is, are you winning over the longer term? And how much is your bank going to give you in your savings account? I think it is also questionable whether it is moral to lend at 25%. Does anyone know what % of loans given out by Zopa are for cars since there are some people saying this is the next sub prime loan bubble that is going to burst. I have some sympathy with your question about morality; In the case of an impersonal system such as Zopa, lending to E-Class borrowers at all is probabaly on the margin, but where else could they go -especially if they need a car to get to work at unsocial hours, or to take a relative to hospital, etc? I know a few cases where friends or relations have given their old car to people like this, and in some cases charities can provide home appliances to people whose old one has failed. Our church has a debt-counselling branch of the charity "Christians Against Poverty". A lot of the cases he deals with are a result of family breakdown, or the borrower is suffering from depression or other mental illness / disability. Maybe Zopa could set up a charity to deal with cases that even the Zopa lending team don't feel they can help with a commercial loan, and invite Zopa lenders to contribute? The way I read the Bible, the law applying to Israelites was that they shouldn't charge unfair interest to a fellow-Israelite (or take life-necessities as security), but were free to lend at whatever rate to people of other ethnic origin/religious persuasion. If applying that to ourselves, it then depends on who you classify as a "brother".
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 4, 2017 18:17:50 GMT
I think it is also questionable whether it is moral to lend at 25%. Does anyone know what % of loans given out by Zopa are for cars since there are some people saying this is the next sub prime loan bubble that is going to burst. I have some sympathy with your question about morality; In the case of an impersonal system such as Zopa, lending to E-Class borrowers at all is probabaly on the margin, but where else could they go -especially if they need a car to get to work at unsocial hours, or to take a relative to hospital, etc? I know a few cases where friends or relations have given their old car to people like this, and in some cases charities can provide home appliances to people whose old one has failed. Our church has a debt-counselling branch of the charity "Christians Against Poverty". A lot of the cases he deals with are a result of family breakdown, or the borrower is suffering from depression or other mental illness / disability. Maybe Zopa could set up a charity to deal with cases that even the Zopa lending team don't feel they can help with a commercial loan, and invite Zopa lenders to contribute? The way I read the Bible, the law applying to Israelites was that they shouldn't charge unfair interest to a fellow-Israelite (or take life-necessities as security), but were free to lend at whatever rate to people of other ethnic origin/religious persuasion. If applying that to ourselves, it then depends on who you classify as a "brother". I am not happy about some of the very high interest loans on my Zopa+ account at all since I can imagine that they are either been given to scammers who have no intention of paying back the money or honest people who are in a very desperate situation (and paying for the scam artists with these high interest rates). Anyhow this credit bubble is all going to come crashing down sometime soon, I should probably liquidate my assets and move to the middle of no where and try to build myself a self sufficient bubble.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on May 4, 2017 20:02:57 GMT
The 'E' rate is not high compared to pay day loans etc and probably not much higher than credit card interest rates. If it provides an alternative to borrowers taking out payday loans (or worse) then I think it's OK. And we are taking a substantial risk on whether the loans will be paid back.
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