Is another Recession on the Way

The biggest risk at the moment IMHO is a loss of confidence following the triggering of article 50.  This could lead to consumers tightening their belts and a (temporary but steep?) drop in demand for property. If consumers don't spend, small businesses will suffer. There would be an increase in default rates. For contrarian equity investors, there could be opportunities on the stock market. Cash is a relatively safe asset....but vulnerable to inflation, especially if we see another currency downgrade. Of course, none of this might happen, so the best overall policy is diversification across asset classes and geographies.

I confidently predict there IS another recession on the way. However I've absolutely no idea when it will arrive. In the meantime, I plan to continue to make hay while the sun shines.

I see a US dollar crisis coming, a self inflicted one.

Few people have even heard of FATCA, yet it's massively damaging for the US economy and when the US catches a cold, we all sneeze. If you google FATCA you will find a lot of information but the only positive information you will find is from people with an agenda or no real understanding of what it is and what the effects will be, but in reality it's a bloody disaster for the USA. It certainly puts the USA in a very bad light indeed.

A brief glance will show a law designed to catch tax cheats, and we all like that, right?


Further inspection reveals an act of imperialistic bullying on an epic scale, massive costs forced on the globe to benefit nobody but the USA, huge incentive for the world to seek alternatives to the US dollar and a country that has crippled it's ability to compete in a global economy by effectively making it impossible for their citizens to lead a normal life outside of the USA, the latter already being problem before FATCA made sure those Americans can't just keep a low profile.


As Daniel Mitchell, Brian Garst said in their article, The Janus face of US tax policy, "For all intents and purposes, the U.S. government picked up a gun in a fit of misplaced fiscal rage, aimed it at its own head and declared, «Nobody move or the idiot gets it!"


You can google the article, and it's sobering reading from people who know what they are talking about. 

Greetings from Beijing, where the food will kill you if the pollution doesn't first.

While everyone is focusing on Trump and Europe, I think there's a decent chance the next big recession we face could be "Made in China".

While the country's growth is undeniable and there's a certain buzz in the air that sends a tingle down your spine, the size of the shadow banking industry is frankly quite frightening, and wait until you see the P2P industry there... No money for the 5% deposit (i.e. 95% LTV) on that ridiculously overpriced flat in Beijing/Shanghai? No problem. Just borrow it from a P2P platform. Who cares if you can't afford it? Nobody checks anyway. And everybody knows property prices only ever go up, so leverage away!

It's all too eerily familiar.

  Please explain your logic, seems completely illogical!

Thanks for the advice. I dont consider myself a natural risk taker or investor and if it wasnt for the zero interest rates I would have my money in the bank even if I was just earning 3%. I have made a fairly decent return on my dabbling in peer to peer but I am not sure how the sector will do if there is a platform failure from one of the major players. I believe the convential wisdom is that if you think there is a recession/downturn/economic shock coming you should put your money in cash and try to buy assets in the cheap after it occurs.I am not sure this will apply to the next financial crisis, could very well see further inflation/devaluation of money. The world seems to be headed into uncharted waters.