unmadem
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Post by unmadem on Jun 5, 2014 10:34:30 GMT
I am wondering if my experience is typical ? I have been investing since Nov 2013 on primary and secondary market. I have calculated rate of return using XIRR in Excel, using deposits, withdrawals, and account balance. None of my investments are below 10%pa but xirr is around 6.5% consistently.
I haven't detailed figures but for the last 3 or 4 months I think I have consistently had between 7 and 10 loans stuck in drawdown at any one time (and most for extended periods). I haven't had a shadow account (though just got one now).
Are others suffering such a marked difference between the headline rate and actual return ?
I though it would be interesting (and useful to newbies) if others were willing to share their actual rate, time they have been investing and whether they have a shadow account (which I assume makes quite a difference).
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j
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Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on Jun 5, 2014 10:48:07 GMT
I would hazard a guess & say many would be around the figure you mentioned. Some might be higher if they invested cash immediately into AM or had very good luck with drawdown (not many I would think as we all have suffered on this issue). I have not used xirr as yet but should investigate this to get a crystal clear idea of mt returns. The motto I think is try & invest in AM to earn immediately & minimise what you put in live loans, especially if you anticipate protracted time tables.
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Jun 5, 2014 10:54:44 GMT
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mike
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Post by mike on Jun 5, 2014 11:45:17 GMT
I started on 21/4/14 and have a return of 6.9% to date. I've invested in 11 loans all on the AM and have 3 bids awaiting to draw down. Currently my funds are: invested 69%, bids 19% and cash 12%. I don't have shadow bids yet.
Mike
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Post by Jack Barlow on Jun 5, 2014 12:46:10 GMT
I started investing on AC in Nov 2013. I'm getting an XIRR of 7.67% to date using the criteria unmadem has assumed, but this increases to 9.87% when I factor in unpaid accrued interest from current and sold loan parts. The latter figure gives a better guide to medium/long term returns (assuming no future defaults). Roughly 60% of my purchases have been from the AM. I have a shadow account which I have used in the last month or so. Currently have 17 loans that have drawn down and 2 loans with drawdown pending (both with shadow bids). I also previously bid in 2 auctions that fell through before drawdown after a lengthy delay (1 shadow, 1 not). I'm rather picky in my choice of loans so don't automatically buy whatever's available on the AM just to keep my cash working. To mitigate, I don't tend to leave much spare cash in my AC account (so not making much use of AI); instead I keep a close eye on the progress to drawdown reports then move money in when drawdown appears imminent. I'm also overweight in several loans that I particularly like (and that I know would get snapped up on AM very quickly) so can use this as a fall-back source of cash if I'm too slow to transfer new money in. |
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Post by whitmanthecat on Jun 5, 2014 13:01:19 GMT
I did the calculation as Jack Barlow, including the accrued interest with a date of today in the XIRR calculation. I agree it has to be included to give a better guide. Since starting in February, for me this gives 10.6%pa, helped significantly by having the shadow account. I also bought more than originally planned in April from the AM, helping minimise dead time.
That said, I have excluded the 'accrued' anticipated April loyalty cashback and the promised cashbacks from loans such as Aber***** (due if/when draws down) and Upt** (overdue) that could arguably be included if accrued interest is. I just haven't calculated what these are.
If I take out the accrued interest, it drops to 7.0%pa. Loans such as Wre**** don't help here where interest is only paid at term, but also that when I'm only looking at 3.5 months, I'm missing roughly half the monthly-paid interest.
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Post by cyrilmadrid on Jun 6, 2014 22:39:57 GMT
I am trying to do the same XIRR calculation (I was doing a simpler calculation, which was how much I put in, what was the total value now, and calculate an annual return), but have a problem when importing the date, which comes out as "2013-03-05 08:52:43.043877+00".
I had a similar problem with the decimal point, but I managed to change that when importing, don't know how to import it so my Excel reads is at dd/mm/yyyy instead of yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm:ss
Any help welcome.
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Post by whitmanthecat on Jun 6, 2014 23:10:38 GMT
You could use =DATEVALUE(LEFT(A2,10)), replacing A2 with the cell containing the date.
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Post by cyrilmadrid on Jun 7, 2014 19:44:35 GMT
Strange, did that and got XIRR=17 %, which obviously seems too high :
Do you see anything wrong in what I did ? I put the deposits in negative number, positive for withdrawal, positive for current valuation, and 10 % as an estimated guess in the formula.
(..)
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Post by Jack Barlow on Jun 7, 2014 20:31:33 GMT
Do you see anything wrong in what I did ? The calculation is correct, so suggest checking your deposit/withdrawal entries are correct/complete.
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unmadem
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Post by unmadem on Jun 7, 2014 20:39:09 GMT
Do you see anything wrong in what I did ? The calculation is correct, so suggest checking your deposit/withdrawal entries are correct/complete. That was my conclusion too.
ps The entry for 28/03/2014 looks suspiciously lower than your typical transaction.
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Post by cyrilmadrid on Jun 7, 2014 23:14:26 GMT
Right, I found an error in one of the withdrawals 17 Feb 14 which bounced back the next, so I get an overall 8.5 % including the interest accrued, 7.7 % before accrued interest.
I hope that as time goes, the negative effect of money waiting for drawdown is mitigated and IRR gets closer to 10 %.
Thanks for your help.
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Jun 8, 2014 7:15:58 GMT
Accrued interest is shown on the "My Account" page. Scroll down to "Your loan units" and it's the penultimate column.
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unmadem
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Post by unmadem on Jun 8, 2014 10:36:08 GMT
I was surprised just how much difference including the accrued interest made to the calculation. The 6.5% first reported goes up to a slightly more respectable 8.27% when the accrued interest was added.
If the latest est on drawdown dates are correct (they have to be sometime  ) there are a quite a few loans to drawdown this week which will help. Cross fingers and toes everybody.
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) there are a quite a few loans to drawdown this week which will help. Cross fingers and toes everybody.