Saving Stream now an illiquid monster...

I think everyone agrees with the first point. LTV is there for a reason.

I disagree with the second point. It's just words on a screen, I very much doubt anyone is panicking even at the prospect of large capital losses on their loan. 
But does that mean someone should take it lying down? I wouldn't call someone who is threatening further legalities on some of these loans as someone 'who doesn't have the risk tolerance', and indeed a successful case may improve the quality of loans going forward. 

Some of the things we have seen across various platforms have not been implicit in the risks that is reflected in the interest rate. Ablrate/C******m, yes, I feel that is. FS/Whitehaven, definitely not. There is a very large difference between taking risks and being irresponsible as I see it.

gustapher:  ISTM that you've forgotten that the number of people reading this forum is just a tiny percentage of Lendy investors. 

In view of the small readership this forum has, I don't see how this thread could have a significant impact on the behaviour of the other 90+% of Lendy's investors.

But you wouldn't need to impact the behaviour of 90+% of lenders. 

A typical loan has 2-3000 investors. Yes it is a tiny percentage that post, but it is still a reasonable number. Then there are the people who register but rarely post. That is probably a higher number. Then there are a number of guests on top, usually an even greater number, which we already know include journalists, youtubers and bloggers.

If a significant percentage of investors are following the georget strategy, then regardless of whether they read the forums or not, you only need 50k or 100k of a loan hitting the SM for plenty of others to follow. This behaviour has already been confirmed by others on the forum admitting as much. So significantly affecting the SM does not require 90+% of investors - in fact it could be done by influencing only a small number. This creates a snowball effect as others follow suit. This is how markets are manipulated all over the world.

The second point is people with more skin in the game are more likely to read these forums than people investing smaller sums. Obviously it depends on the percentage of their net worth but it stands to reason that the more serious/professional the investor, the more they will take the time to research. You only need to influence 1-2 big fish to affect the market.

Lastly the same argument you have just used is frequently posted on stock and shares forums. "Hey I may be ramping or de-ramping, but there are millions of investors so I couldn't possibly affect the price"... yet people do it, over and over again, all the time. If it didn't work then why would they do it? Ego? maybe. Or maybe they do it because it works. Remember the smaller the market (Lendy is microscopic) the easier it is to manipulate.

Then there is the fact anyone can register and post anything, even competitors, you can have sockpuppet accounts etc etc. I think it is entirely plausible these forums could affect the market whether deliberately or otherwise.

100% agree with snowball theory. Take for example DFL019, a loan that seems to have no issues with it substantively from what I can see (not that I looked too hard - ok it’s huge dfl with a big new tranche coming down the pipeline but that tranche only appeared recently I think). Add to that the nearly 200 days of unexpired term and 12% interest (and a low “ltv” which some people must still give credit to), so even if you are applying that strategy it’s a pretty good one to hold as chances are you can ride out this selling cycle and sell it later when the sm picks up again. Yet in the last 7 days or so the queue has gone from FFF to 230k, gradually rising every day. The logical rationale for this is the snowball theory. Unless lots of people know something I do not.

The queue is about to get a whole lot longer when that tranche goes live, so there is almost zero point listing until the almost inevitable swing back to FFF. And even if that doesn’t come all you’re doing by listing now is throwing interest down the drain.

I certainly don’t think lendy as a platform will be failing any time soon. Yes there are some nasty looking situations, the negative Sunday paper article recently no doubt didn’t help, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned it’s that p2p is fickle. This thread hadn’t been touched in ages until recently. It’ll be full of speculation for a few weeks or whatever (yup I know - I am part of that!) and then it’ll probably go quiet for a few weeks again. The activity on this thread (and in georget’s sales activity) is directly proportional to amount for sale on sm. Repeat said pattern ad inifinitum.

Whether they are astute investors or not depends on the outcome and whether the game is indeed up. If things return to normal and I avoid losses while remaining invested then I am the astute investor. If I am wrong and you are right then they are the astute investors. It's a market.

The thing is though, going back to that situation a few months ago, anyone who bought into the hysteria then was wrong and cost themselves plus anyone who listened money. Remember the cashback tranche on DFL019? How many people missed out on that because of people speculating on here? It's surprising that for a forum hardly anyone reads, the allocations during that period of negative sentiment were so high compared to a few months later when the cashback wasn't even on offer. 

I'm not saying there aren't risks or problems, but I will ask why give credit to people who have been consistently and measurably wrong?

Home page - scroll to the bottom.

hi all
think i need to go to specsaver`s
all i can see on home page
17,720

REGISTERED USERS    half way down
nothing at the bottom?
 thanks anyway

DOH!!