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Post by mrclondon on Nov 16, 2013 23:36:04 GMT
Over the last couple of weeks we have seen a rapid increase in the number of loan requests. But is this good news ?
The quick fire answer is yes, it must be good ... more requests = more money required from lenders = marginally higher rates.
But I have seen a few comments recently that FC is too much effort. Having just waded through the last two days worth of listings (29 still open for bids) I understand the sentiment - at even a quick 3 minutes scan of each listing this is 1.5 hours of effort. Maybe once the API is live, I can write an algorithm to do some automatic filtering of the listings but given FC don't split fixed assets into tangible/intangible or the shareholder funds down in capital/premium/P&L/revaluation this will not be completely effective (unless I pay for the API to another data provider of course).
I'm left wondering whether FC's model is now becoming reliant on attracting ever increasing numbers of auto-bidders as the the funds required increase, and the effort of even basic due diligence becomes too great for manual bidders.
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jimbo
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Post by jimbo on Nov 17, 2013 2:53:01 GMT
I tend to only bid on/study loan requests > £90k. Saves a lot of effort. If a loan can be filled by autobid within a few hours, I don't bother looking at it. You're not alone in terms of the API/algorithm route either. A personal project over the next few years will be to write some API-related software to try to automate a lot of the manual internet searching that makes up a lot of the due-diligence time. The idea is to speed up getting to the pertinent information. I half wonder if there may be commercial demand for such a tool, but then I start wondering about platform T&Cs, data ownership and getting sued, and that dampens my enthusiasm somewhat. Will just build something for my own use/benefit first, and it it ends up being really good, I'll start figuring out if there's any way to commercialise it. Sure I probably won't be the only one to do this though...
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duck
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Post by duck on Nov 17, 2013 7:07:37 GMT
especially since the largest autobidder has recently halved its participation to 10%.
I certainly have found the effort/return ratio change over the last year and due to work pressures have limited myself to a few hours of dd over the weekend. The outcome for me is that returned monies are now exceeding what I put back in so my involvement is decreasing.
Am I tempted to join the autobidders? NO.
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 17, 2013 8:25:46 GMT
Over the last couple of weeks we have seen a rapid increase in the number of loan requests. But is this good news ? The quick fire answer is yes, it must be good ... more requests = more money required from lenders = marginally higher rates. But I have seen a few comments recently that FC is too much effort. Having just waded through the last two days worth of listings (29 still open for bids) I understand the sentiment - at even a quick 3 minutes scan of each listing this is 1.5 hours of effort. Maybe once the API is live, I can write an algorithm to do some automatic filtering of the listings but given FC don't split fixed assets into tangible/intangible or the shareholder funds down in capital/premium/P&L/revaluation this will not be completely effective (unless I pay for the API to another data provider of course). I'm left wondering whether FC's model is now becoming reliant on attracting ever increasing numbers of auto-bidders as the the funds required increase, and the effort of even basic due diligence becomes too great for manual bidders. I wonder whether they are opening up the API precisely with a view that the whole platform may becoming an automated trading backbone !!! As far as effort is concerned: for quite a while I've felt it it is too much effort for too little both financical and "intellectual" reward. When you could have a half decent dialogue with a borrower through Q&A not only was the due dil better, but there was just more reason to be interested. This kind of offset the amount of time required which lets face it was probably always greater than the return justified. Like others have said, I tend to look at only the larger loans now (possiblity of marginally better rate, fill a bit slower, potential for some Q&A) and maybe some of the C- loans to see whether they look like safer houses than their ratings suggest: but since mmay of those are filled within 3 microseconds of listing...... Most of the time I spend logging into FC thse days is to see whether there is any bad news on any of my existing, to trim and sell a few loans, and only as an aside dip into current loan offerings. More loans should be more opporunity to get diversification/increase lending, but strangely it is having completely the opposite effect for me: too many, filling too soon, no good due dil opportunity, loans filled before you can get to assessing. I'd rather spend my time assessing a much smaller batch on TC and invest more.
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Nov 17, 2013 9:07:27 GMT
The upside of more loans is they are taking longer to fill, which must be good for Q&A, and rates are edging up. Many loans (but still very few C-) are closing above their minimum bid rates, and rates on the secondary market are well up. Not so good for sellers (which I have been lately).
This suggests to me that supply and demand are now close to in balance. Indeed, the current supply may be enough to start soaking up the excess funds on the platform. What happens if/when the excess funds are used up would be very interesting, but I expect they will do anything to stop that happening (throttle back the loans, turn up the advertising).
I've never done much DD on FC, it doesn't seem to lend itself to that. Just a 3 minute scan to see if there is anything I really don't like, plus the occasional question and a check for adverse information on duedil. I do a more thorough job on TC and Assetz where my individual exposures are 10 - 20 times bigger.
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Post by elljay on Nov 17, 2013 9:35:19 GMT
Similar here - ignore the smaller loans as they fill too quickly and with low rates. Spend a few minutes doing DD - there are enough other loans / P2x sites that there's plenty of other options if a loan doesn't inspire confidence for whatever reason.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 17, 2013 10:39:04 GMT
My concern is that the loans are getting smaller and smaller. How much time can FC be spending to check the credentials of a £5k - 10k application?
I'm now only interested in asset secured larger loans, which hopefully hold up at a decent rate. These have been a bit thin on the ground recently, but there appears to be a couple of opportunities that popped up on Friday.
Not realy into algorithms, but is it possible to filter 62 loan requests so that only asset secured applications are shown?
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maxmarengo
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Post by maxmarengo on Nov 17, 2013 11:08:38 GMT
I think FC are looking to get a couple of things from opening up the API: a cluster of Apps that will make using FC more attractive and some ideas on how to develop the FC sight.
Both of these they get for nothing just by offering access to the API.
One of the first things I was hoping to do with the API was to set up some kind of email alert for promising loans - could be C-, large loans, asset backed, high rate with 1 day to go etc.
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Post by elljay on Nov 17, 2013 11:18:55 GMT
I must have missed the memo about the FC API. How recently was it announced? I see from the FAQs it's coming "shortly" - any ideas when that will be?
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 17, 2013 11:39:18 GMT
I think FC are looking to get a couple of things from opening up the API: a cluster of Apps that will make using FC more attractive and some ideas on how to develop the FC sight. Both of these they get for nothing just by offering access to the API. One of the first things I was hoping to do with the API was to set up some kind of email alert for promising loans - could be C-, large loans, asset backed, high rate with 1 day to go etc. I just wish my IT skills were sufficiently up to date to think about making use of it. Would be interesting to understand what might be involved in writing apps to it. For a start, what language ? Unfortunately my IT skills are a) rusty b) limited to "non IT" applications (think embedded software).
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Post by mrclondon on Nov 17, 2013 12:05:53 GMT
I must have missed the memo about the FC API. How recently was it announced? I see from the FAQs it's coming "shortly" - any ideas when that will be? About 2 weeks ago, the email is repeated in the first post on this thread on the official forumTake note though of the discussion on T&C's over the last few days - any application will have to purge data more than 30 days old (or providing there is a part available on the secondary market re-request it). Not ideal. I just wish my IT skills were sufficiently up to date to think about making use of it. Would be interesting to understand what might be involved in writing apps to it. For a start, what language ? Unfortunately my IT skills are a) rusty b) limited to "non IT" applications (think embedded software). FC responded to a question on languages with this: "The API is language and platform agnostic and as such it will support clients written in any language you choose. We intend to provide some sample code for some of the more popular languages." I'll be using C#.Net but the other .Net languages or Java, and probably Python could be used. If the returned data is XML and not JSON Excel or Access VBA could be used.
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jimbo
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Post by jimbo on Nov 17, 2013 12:11:55 GMT
I'm going to be using Groovy and building my own web-app control pages in Grails to overlay calls to the API. I see it as a good opportunity to hone my fledgling Java skills and strike out into Groovy Grails. Having said this, any language that allows you to build and send http requests would do.
It will be interesting to see what kind of apps become available (possibly I will end up building whatever I do into one), but when it comes to using any third party app, there is a question of trust, as you will certainly have to enter your FC username, password and token number to use it. The token makes it secure, as I'd expect this to constantly change. However, if I were going to use a third party app, I'd want assurances my credential were just going to be sent to the API, not stored.
Additionally, there are potential data ownership issues. Not so much for building something to bid on new loans, but more so around building monitoring tools and analytics to track existing loan books. There is a lot of scope for automating this kind of tracking - particularly around running google searches for adverse news on companies you have lent to, and applying contextual matching/analytics to the results. This is something in which I'm extremely interested - down to knowing the potential tool I'd use. However, it's one thing to build this for yourself, but making it available to others presents issues around data ownership and borrower privacy. Potentially, these are solvable, but I figure I'd be better off building something first before deciding if I have a tool of potential use to others that makes it worthwhile enough to attempt to navigate the legalities. At the end of the day, this is why I think FC are placing the 30 day re-request rule that MRC_London is referring to. To run analysis of loan books efficiently would allow each borrower name to be stored in a central repository so you only have to make API calls once for each borrower (I'm thinking to places such as Companies House, who have a paid-for API). The 30 day rule when applied to individuals is only a bit of a hindrance, but what it does do is prevent is a third party from building up a database of FC borrower companies via the API. Personally, though, I think this is a bit of a grey area. At the end of the day, if you have lent money to a company, you should really have the right to be able to track and monitor the loan you've made. If third party tools exist to facilitate this, then I think you should be able to use them. Just my tuppence worth...
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Post by elljay on Nov 17, 2013 19:46:40 GMT
About 2 weeks ago, the email is repeated in the first post on this thread on the official forumTake note though of the discussion on T&C's over the last few days - any application will have to purge data more than 30 days old (or providing there is a part available on the secondary market re-request it). Not ideal. Thanks, will have a read through. The 30 days rule sounds a bit daft for loans you have parts of. The "max three bids a minute" sounds sensible though.
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Post by elljay on Nov 17, 2013 19:48:53 GMT
The 30 day rule when applied to individuals is only a bit of a hindrance, but what it does do is prevent is a third party from building up a database of FC borrower companies via the API. Personally, though, I think this is a bit of a grey area. At the end of the day, if you have lent money to a company, you should really have the right to be able to track and monitor the loan you've made. If third party tools exist to facilitate this, then I think you should be able to use them. Just my tuppence worth... +1 !
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min
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Post by min on Nov 18, 2013 7:15:15 GMT
Over the last couple of weeks we have seen a rapid increase in the number of loan requests. But is this good news ? Not it appears if you are trying to sell loan parts. Normally at the weekend there is more activity on the secondary market, probably because people have more time to look for bargains and/or loans they are interested in. This weekend has been very quiet. Maybe it's not the increase in loan requests but Christmas shopping. However I suspect it is the increase. Even if you joined FC a week ago you could have bid on 50+ loans and therefore be reasonably diversified so no need to dip into second hand loan parts.
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