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Post by goldservice on Jun 11, 2014 8:31:58 GMT
I buy only A and A+ and have set myself an exposure max of 0.6%. Is that stupid? What do others do?
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 11, 2014 9:26:42 GMT
I wouldn't say it is stupid, but the historical evidence doesn't really support the belief that A (or even A+) is really a lot safer than C or C- .. of course right now the rates are sometimes not that different either.
As for exposure - well 0.5% is all very well, but it does mean you have ~200 holding to monitor (or not .. depends on the effort you put in I guess). I'm quite happy with higher exposure, but I rarely hold anything for the full duration .. for loans that I'm likely to have to (see 'property loans') I probably aim at 0.5%-1% too.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 11, 2014 9:51:08 GMT
I wouldn't say it is stupid, but the historical evidence doesn't really support the belief that A (or even A+) is really a lot safer than C or C- .. of course right now the rates are sometimes not that different either. Not sure that is really true is it ? Certainly not true for A+ vs. B. Of course whether the risk / return is better is a different question, and extremely dependent on one's marginal tax rate position.
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markr
Member of DD Central
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Post by markr on Jun 11, 2014 10:17:02 GMT
My current strategy might be described as "maximally diversified". I don't bid more than £40 in a loan (and usually it's £20) unless I feel there's a good reason to (cashback, property, staggeringly good rate). Since I'm only risking £20 or so there's not much point doing a lot of DD, which I don't have the time, knowledge or tools to do properly. I also don't chase the highest rate, I pop in a couple of times a day and bid any available funds at rates I think stand a chance of staying in.
I don't bid down to MBR except for 6, 12 and some 24 month loans which I'm likely to hold for the duration, where MBR is actually quite good value. I've got about as much in FC as I want so I don't add funds except for exceptional events like a rate spike, cashback offer or good property loan, so I fund bids from repayments and selling parts. I usually have a few parts up for sale at a small markup, usually loans about 6 months or so old, plus any rogues, which dribble away and provide new bid funds.
I don't have a preference for risk band, except I'm wary of C- because I don't think the 15% max gives much headroom above MBR. Recently I have been preferring A+ and A because there's a chance that I'll be in the higher tax bracket this year (which is also why I'm not adding much more to FC, preferring platforms with a provision fund).
I don't think any strategy is stupid or wrong, except perhaps turning on autobid, it's whatever suits the individual.
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wysiati
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Post by wysiati on Jun 11, 2014 10:18:50 GMT
The comparison is skewed in part by the absence of C, C- loans in the early days of FC for which realised bad debt has been significantly above projections (see the revamped stats page). Many of the early loans, including the then highest risk band ones, did not even have a PG attached and recovery stats reflect this. A break down of risk band performance for a given vintage of loan would be more helpful in obtaining an apples-to-apples comparison.
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Post by davee39 on Jun 11, 2014 10:39:31 GMT
My FC holding is small (currently about 120 x £20 parts). Having reached the 1% diversification suggested by FC, I am moving to 2 x £20/ Loan. This will then grow to 3 x £20 as invested cash increases.
I Avoid C-, and having set an absolute pain threshold of 6.5% return after fees and expected losses (Ie well above MBR) , bid on few A+.
This also means I rarely take loan parts on smaller, under £75k, loans
All holdings are sold at the best available premium after 3 - 4 months. Since flippers are very short term holders the premium available seems to increase as the available loan parts fall.
After a year or so I have 1 total loss, 1 slow paying Auto Trader (Well known in these parts), and a welsh builder who went pop before the first payment (Last payment made by the guarantor?).
The first two were purchased loan parts from before I developed my current strategy.
I do very little DD, although some of the fraudsters, potential bankrupts and solicitors are fairly obviously avoidable, as are all businesses going to the next level or other idiot jargon.
Property purchased for cashback is sold ASAP.
My main savings platforms are RS and Zopa. I consider FC to be a hobby,not an investment, and is a little like online gambling , but at least offers the chance of a return. (Watching flashing bids at the end of an auction resembles a roulette wheel)
Currently my gross rate is 11.8%, and the annualized return has been 11.5%
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 11, 2014 11:52:17 GMT
....as are all businesses going to the next level or other idiot jargon. The 'next level' could be up or down :-)
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 11, 2014 12:42:44 GMT
I wouldn't say it is stupid, but the historical evidence doesn't really support the belief that A (or even A+) is really a lot safer than C or C- .. of course right now the rates are sometimes not that different either. Not sure that is really true is it ? Certainly not true for A+ vs. B. Of course whether the risk / return is better is a different question, and extremely dependent on one's marginal tax rate position. Depends what limits you set for confidence level - at 10% (1 in 10 chance of guessing wrong) A+ was just =slightly= safer than the average loan. A wasn't. B was, IIRC, (slightly) significantly worse than the average loan (but these are, as someone mentioned upthread, all likely to be very influenced by the 2010/11 numbers, when there were only A+, A and B, and they were uniformly fairly rubbish.) Yes, tax has a big impact - the 8.5% A+ property loan with 2% (one was 2.5%) tax-free cashback, looks like a good bet for the higher rate, no capital gains to offset, player. And of course an A+ at 14% clearly trumps a C- at 14% just on resale grounds - you can't bid high enough on a C- to get an equivalent risk/reward/profit balance (OK, you can elsewhere, like Rebuildingsociety, but not on FC.)
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