fasty
Member of DD Central
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Post by fasty on Jun 11, 2014 18:28:40 GMT
Here's my simplistic two-penn'orth (I'm an engineer not a financier!): The start of the new "super-ISA" rules at the start of July may encourage some investors to route their spare cash into that rather than FC. Some might even sell loan parts to top up their ISAs. Liquidity could be disturbed leading to a surge in rates like we saw earlier in the year (unless FC throttles new loan applications or offer sweeteners).
I wonder what others think?
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Post by davee39 on Jun 11, 2014 18:58:20 GMT
So FC investors will sell loans yielding 6 to 14% to invest in ISA's paying around 1.5% because they have a tax free tag, or perhaps top up Stocks and Shares ISAs which only really benefit higher rate taxpayers. Unlikely. The main institutions will probably cut their ISA rates further to stem any possible tide of cash. Even better the whole ISA season deserves to be a total damp squib as savers are educated that they are better off with P2P and paying tax. (Provided they stick to the protection of Zopa and RS). More likely there will be a cash shortage in July and Aug as savers spend their cash on holiday, or are not bidding while abroad.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 11, 2014 20:03:58 GMT
The NISA rules will also, AIUI, allow savers to stick whatever they've got in ISA wrappers into shares, knowing they can move it back to cash in future, or into cash (if there are any decent offers). In theory they could move everything they have ISA'd already (cash, shares or both) into P2P ISA, if there was such a thing (breath not held!). That might wriggle rates a bit, given the few billion in ISAs.
I subscribe to the view there'll be a cash shortfall this summer as people holiday with it (or just go away and forget to invest any more), but I doubt it'll be spectacular .. FC putting out 20+ loans today will probably have more of an impact (or £175k property loans which are fully funded in 30 minutes .. gotta have soaked up a lot of free cash, on top of the £66k one we had earlier, which last all of about 15 mins).
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Jun 14, 2014 7:19:34 GMT
With 87 loans listed this morning and a fair amount of activity on the property front we could see rates on the rise again from this week on. However don't hold your breath but do cross you fingers!
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blender
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Post by blender on Jun 15, 2014 7:55:07 GMT
With 87 loans listed this morning and a fair amount of activity on the property front we could see rates on the rise again from this week on. However don't hold your breath but do cross you fingers! You could be right. At present (Sunday am) there are 19 loans which are stuck at 60-62% as Autobid tries to push them up together, including the large £650k property loan at the end. The first opportunity from this may be from the late filling of the large A+ loan 6516, closing late on Thursday. FC have pushed hard again - I am not sure that the cash is there. Edit: Unfilled loans need about £800k, which is about 3 days worth of all repayments. Whole loans cannot help with that. If FC start the week with many new loans there will be trouble by the end of the week. Why do they refuse to advertise for funds?
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 15, 2014 8:18:23 GMT
Secondary market rates are also on an upward trend again, with well-above-MBR parts listed in all the risk bands. Not good news for the large scale flippers.
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Post by davee39 on Jun 15, 2014 11:46:09 GMT
Complaints about whole loans limiting supply and forcing rates down, and complaints about lack of funds. I suspect the property surge is draining some of the flippers 'hot' money, but for much of the time it has been normal for loans to take a few days to fill. When I started on FC there were 20 to 30 loans listed at any time, and these were over 14 days. I have no idea how FC balance the no of listings, but I suspect market forces will operate and higher rates will attract more lenders cash. However to the degree that 'hot' money is tied up in failing to sell heavily discounted property parts I suspect that some property loans will become harder to fill and need more brute force from the bent autobid algorithm. With Saving Stream paying 12% + 0.5% cashback on bridging loans, the FC offer is only attractive if the cashback can be stripped, and the parts quickly re-sold.
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wysiati
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Post by wysiati on Jun 15, 2014 17:08:18 GMT
With Saving Stream paying 12% + 0.5% cashback on bridging loans, the FC offer is only attractive if the cashback can be stripped, and the parts quickly re-sold. Sweeping simplistic statement and not accurate.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 15, 2014 20:22:51 GMT
Sweeping statement by you too . a more detailed critique might be enlightening...
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chrisf
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Post by chrisf on Jun 19, 2014 11:42:02 GMT
*snip* You could be right. At present (Sunday am) there are 19 loans which are stuck at 60-62% as Autobid tries to push them up together, including the large £650k property loan at the end. The first opportunity from this may be from the late filling of the large A+ loan 6516, closing late on Thursday. *snip* This sounded perfectly reasonable to me 4 days ago, but how wrong we were! 6516, the large A+, had no trouble filling and is already down to a rate where I have no interest, but the other not-quite-so-large loans closing today, like 6483, 6484 & 6515, are all still looking very tasty (also 6478 which was an early closer). No idea why people were so much more keen on 6516 than the others.
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chrisf
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Post by chrisf on Jun 19, 2014 11:45:14 GMT
Sorry about my poor snipping there...
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chrisf
Member of DD Central
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Post by chrisf on Jun 19, 2014 13:20:53 GMT
This sounded perfectly reasonable to me 4 days ago, but how wrong we were! 6516, the large A+, had no trouble filling and is already down to a rate where I have no interest, but the other not-quite-so-large loans closing today, like 6483, 6484 & 6515, are all still looking very tasty (also 6478 which was an early closer). No idea why people were so much more keen on 6516 than the others. Just to answer my own question: I have spotted the reason now, the big A+ is only on a 24 month term, whereas the others are mostly 60, hence the popularity difference.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jun 19, 2014 13:22:13 GMT
Those loans did fill surprisingly quickly on Monday, but now there is a problem. Two £100k loans just closed. 6484 A+ 9.5% average, 10.5% max. 6483 A 10.4% average 11.8% max. 6515 closes in about 3 Hours, A £150k currently at 13.6% max. Shame I have run out of cash, but would they get taken anyway?
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jm72
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Post by jm72 on Jun 19, 2014 13:58:43 GMT
Those loans did fill surprisingly quickly on Monday, but now there is a problem. Two £100k loans just closed. 6484 A+ 9.5% average, 10.5% max. 6483 A 10.4% average 11.8% max. 6815 closes in about 3 Hours, A+ £150k currently at 13.6% max. Shame I have run out of cash, but would they get taken anyway? 6483 has been taken - for the others, we'll just have to wait and see 
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 19, 2014 15:07:02 GMT
Just to answer my own question: I have spotted the reason now, the big A+ is only on a 24 month term, whereas the others are mostly 60, hence the popularity difference. Yes, short term loans always seem to be more popular, except with flippers where it limits the markup rather severely!
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