Provision Fund Coverage Stats

nesako

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Provision Fund Coverage Stats May 5, 2017 14:30:30 GMT david42, metoo, and 6 more like this

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Post by nesako on May 5, 2017 14:30:30 GMT

Hi all,

If people are interested, I have coverage stats for the Provision Fund:

5-May-2017 - Size: £556,634
13-Jul-2017 - Size: £564,713
16-Oct-2017 - Coverage 7.4%. Size: £606,845
13-Feb-2018 - Coverage 6%. Size: £681,576
12-Mar-2018 - Coverage 5.7%. Size: £714,000
09-04-2018 - Coverage 5.6%. Size: £751,973
14-05-2018 - Coverage 4.8%. Size: £746,461
20-06-2018 - Coverage 6.2%. Size: £1,012,851 (The last default has now been covered by the Provision fund i.e. 8 Defaults/8 Claims. Founders have made an additional 450K contribution, lifting the coverage above comforting levels)
15-8-2018 - Coverage 6.4%. Size: £1,108,510
20-09-2018 - Coverage 6.5%. Size: £1,171,873
26-10-2018 - Coverage 5.9%. Size: £1,110,091 (Additional Default and a matching Claim has been covered, i.e. 9 Defaults / 9 Claims. In summary, borrower contributions for the year are currently falling short by £45,463 (ignoring tax rebates and costs), but previous founder contributions more than cover this shortage)
20-12-2018 - Coverage 3.5%. Size: £769,538
(Wouw guys, many changes over the last 2 months with the blog post coverage in detail: www.growthstreet.co.uk/blog/investing/loan-loss-provision-performance. Additional default (seems fraud related) has been covered by PF, bringing total to 10 Defaults / 10 Claims.)
09-01-2019 - Coverage 3.6%. Size: £818,814
14-03-2019 - Coverage 4%. Size: £991,369 (Reporting orange as we are back to 4% coverage which is above expected losses for the year already + we will continue getting more contributions every month)
01-05-2019 - Coverate 3.5%. Size: £1,043,049
(As there are no new defaults, most likely it dropped due to higher lending volumes, but no additional one-off contributions to provision fund)
09-07-2019 - Coverage 3.51%. Size: £1,255,594
14-11-2019 - Coverage 3.64%. Size: £1,068,556. Defaults increased to 18 with 16 Claims. 2 Claims covered by own funds to prevent the depletion of the provison fund / entering the resolution event. Founders contributed additional £350K of own funds. Expected Bad Debt increased with Actual Bad Debt currently exceeding the expected values for all years

Last Edit: Dec 23, 2019 15:44:13 GMT by nesako

littleoldlady
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Provision Fund Coverage Stats May 8, 2017 10:14:32 GMT ahowlin likes this

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Post by littleoldlady on May 8, 2017 10:14:32 GMT

May 5, 2017 14:30:30 GMT nesako said:

Hi all,

If people are interested, I have coverage stats for the Provision Fund:

7-Nov-2016 - 311%
1-Dec-2016 - 308%
17-Jan-2017 - 295%
3-Feb-2017 - 313%
6-Mar-2017 - 328%
6-Apr-2017 - 353%
5-May-2017 - 271%

I have enquired why did this drop over the last month. Here is the response:

The fall in the coverage ratio is primarily to do with a large increase in total loans outstanding.

Given the flexibility of the borrower product, the coverage ratio moves around a fair amount.

The size of the Loan Loss Provision has actually increased over the last month. Just with that increase, there's also been an increase in Expected Loss, because more borrowers are borrowing. This has led the the fall in coverage ratio.

Seems like new business is flowing in! I do hope that the coverage ratio will continue to stay high though.

Good work nesako. Please keep this thread updated monthly!

Last Edit: May 8, 2017 10:14:59 GMT by littleoldlady

All my posts are my personal opinion and are not advice. History suggests that, if anything, it would be more profitable to do the opposite of whatever I do, but whatever you do will not be any responsibility of mine.

p2pmark Member of DD Central Posts: 218 Likes: 187	Provision Fund Coverage Stats Jul 26, 2017 7:50:56 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by p2pmark on Jul 26, 2017 7:50:56 GMT One more month to add: June - no figure provided 13 July - 259%, £564,713
	Last Edit: Jul 26, 2017 7:51:28 GMT by p2pmark

nesako Posts: 301 Likes: 163	Provision Fund Coverage Stats Jul 26, 2017 8:10:50 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nesako on Jul 26, 2017 8:10:50 GMT Jul 26, 2017 7:50:56 GMT p2pmark said: One more month to add: June - no figure provided 13 July - 259%, £564,713 Thanks, somehow managed to miss the last update

p2pmark
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Provision Fund Coverage Stats Sept 15, 2017 18:46:07 GMT dan1 likes this

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Post by p2pmark on Sept 15, 2017 18:46:07 GMT

There's some more detail at www.growthstreet.co.uk/investing/statistics. Latest figure showing £614,554.

Looks as if there were more claims made than regular contributions received so far for 2017 (I guess losses tend to be lumpy so I don't find this particularly disturbing), but there appears to have been a big contribution from the founders which is more than enough to offset this.

p2pmark Member of DD Central Posts: 218 Likes: 187	Provision Fund Coverage Stats Nov 9, 2017 8:30:43 GMT beeje13 likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by p2pmark on Nov 9, 2017 8:30:43 GMT As at 16 October, the provision fund was pretty constant at £606,845. Seems to be reassuringly stable over the past couple of months.

nesako

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Provision Fund Coverage Stats Nov 12, 2017 19:23:30 GMT

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Post by nesako on Nov 12, 2017 19:23:30 GMT

Nov 9, 2017 8:30:43 GMT p2pmark said:

As at 16 October, the provision fund was pretty constant at £606,845. Seems to be reassuringly stable over the past couple of months.

If you look at statistics, there have been 5 defaults / 4 claims from the Provision Fund with a massive claim value of £339,551
The provision fund, as currently stands, could probably cover another 7 claims before being depleted, so while the sum is large due to large founder contributions, it would not take too much to deplete it...

benaj
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Provision Fund Coverage Stats Dec 30, 2017 13:45:42 GMT

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Post by benaj on Dec 30, 2017 13:45:42 GMT

Sept 15, 2017 18:46:07 GMT p2pmark said:

There's some more detail at www.growthstreet.co.uk/investing/statistics. Latest figure showing £614,554.

Looks as if there were more claims made than regular contributions received so far for 2017 (I guess losses tend to be lumpy so I don't find this particularly disturbing), but there appears to have been a big contribution from the founders which is more than enough to offset this.

Only time will tell whether the borrower contribution provide enough coverage for the provision fund.

Given the fact the expect default rate is around 3-4%, and the loan outstanding is £9.1 mil, would you expect another £700k in default within the next 24 months?.

beeje13 Posts: 199 Likes: 105	Provision Fund Coverage Stats Dec 30, 2017 14:36:03 GMT via mobile p2pmark likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by beeje13 on Dec 30, 2017 14:36:03 GMT They should recover some back as the loans are secured against various things afaik. And the founders keep topping it up, but there's no guarantee of that continuing of course.
	Investor in: Ratesetter, Crowdstacker, Landbay, Growth Street, Assetz Capital, Funding Circle, Moneything, Lending Works, Unbolted.

liso
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Provision Fund Coverage Stats Dec 30, 2017 16:55:22 GMT stevepn likes this

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Post by liso on Dec 30, 2017 16:55:22 GMT

Dec 30, 2017 13:45:42 GMT benaj said:

Sept 15, 2017 18:46:07 GMT p2pmark said:

Given the fact the expect default rate is around 3-4%, and the loan outstanding is £9.1 mil, would you expect another £700k in default within the next 24 months?.

On the basis of the defaults so far, I think another £700K is possible, and I am dubious that the business will survive if such large claims on the PF continue.

For me the risk is not worth the return. Over months the rate has dropped and dropped. Add cash drag and the rate is reduced further, lower than what GS state.

I have withdrawn most of my investment, leaving only a very small sum to see what happens over the next few months. I hope I'm wrong and that GS flourish, but atm I'm just watching from the sidelines.

james21
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Provision Fund Coverage Stats Dec 30, 2017 17:21:32 GMT

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Post by james21 on Dec 30, 2017 17:21:32 GMT

Their stats page (which is better than most platforms by a long way) indicates this year to Nov they have £340k claims (losses) from which they may make some recoveries but when the type of business they lend to go bust they notoriously have few secured assets (just like the FC defaults) so little is got back. The provision fund is £665k in credit so no immediate concern

benaj
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Provision Fund Coverage Stats Feb 28, 2018 20:30:21 GMT bod likes this

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Post by benaj on Feb 28, 2018 20:30:21 GMT

May 5, 2017 14:30:30 GMT nesako said:

Hi all,

If people are interested, I have coverage stats for the Provision Fund:

7-Nov-2016 - 311%
1-Dec-2016 - 308%
17-Jan-2017 - 295%
3-Feb-2017 - 313%
6-Mar-2017 - 328%
6-Apr-2017 - 353%
5-May-2017 - 271% Size: £556,634
13-Jul-2017 - 259% Size: £564,713
16-Oct-2017 - Coverage 7.4% of the whole loan book (changed the way this is reported). Estimated losses just under 4%, so coverage in "old terms" is probably around 180%. Size: £606,845

13-Feb-2018 - Coverage 6% (150% of estimated loses if based on pesimistic 4% default rate). Size: £681,576

Great work @nesako. It will be interesting to see borrowers contributing reached 300k this year at this rate.

liso Member of DD Central Posts: 390 Likes: 394	Provision Fund Coverage Stats Feb 28, 2018 23:13:49 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by liso on Feb 28, 2018 23:13:49 GMT Good to have the updated figures nesako. Thank you

benaj Member of DD Central N/A Posts: 5,591 Likes: 1,735	Provision Fund Coverage Stats Jun 5, 2018 21:20:32 GMT via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by benaj on Jun 5, 2018 21:20:32 GMT Just a thought, how long does a it take Growth street to update the stat about provision fund and defaults? Last update was in April

nesako

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Provision Fund Coverage Stats Jun 6, 2018 15:11:16 GMT r00lish67 likes this

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Post by nesako on Jun 6, 2018 15:11:16 GMT

Jun 5, 2018 21:20:32 GMT benaj said:

Just a thought, how long does a it take Growth street to update the stat about provision fund and defaults? Last update was in April

Yeah, hopefully, the update will come soon. Provision fund coverage has been slowly dropping every month for the last 12 months, so this is something to keep an eye on for sure. Nothing to worry while it stays above 5% (which would be on par with the current Ratesetter's coverage which sits at 124% of expected losses)

Post by nesako on May 5, 2017 14:30:30 GMT

Post by littleoldlady on May 8, 2017 10:14:32 GMT

Post by p2pmark on Jul 26, 2017 7:50:56 GMT

Post by nesako on Jul 26, 2017 8:10:50 GMT

Post by p2pmark on Sept 15, 2017 18:46:07 GMT

Post by p2pmark on Nov 9, 2017 8:30:43 GMT

Post by nesako on Nov 12, 2017 19:23:30 GMT

Post by benaj on Dec 30, 2017 13:45:42 GMT

Post by beeje13 on Dec 30, 2017 14:36:03 GMT

Post by liso on Dec 30, 2017 16:55:22 GMT

Post by james21 on Dec 30, 2017 17:21:32 GMT

Post by benaj on Feb 28, 2018 20:30:21 GMT

Post by liso on Feb 28, 2018 23:13:49 GMT

Post by benaj on Jun 5, 2018 21:20:32 GMT

Post by nesako on Jun 6, 2018 15:11:16 GMT