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Post by elephantrosie on May 26, 2017 20:10:02 GMT
There are a few 14% 3 months loans on collateral. what are the risks with them being short team? i thought it is a good thing as you get your capital back earlier?
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am
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Post by am on May 26, 2017 21:02:36 GMT
There are a few 14% 3 months loans on collateral. what are the risks with them being short team? i thought it is a good thing as you get your capital back earlier? One risk is cash drag. There is likely to be a delay in reinvesting your money after it is repaid. When the loan period is shorter the depression of the effective interest rate by this cash drag is higher. So you might be better off in the long run by waiting a week and putting your money into an 18 month loan.
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Post by mrclondon on May 26, 2017 21:13:24 GMT
And to reinforce the point made by am, at this point a 3 month loan will mature mid/late August; which is just about the quietest time of year for new loans.
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Post by elephantrosie on May 27, 2017 3:35:43 GMT
thanks both. why is august the quietest period for p2p
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Post by GSV3MIaC on May 27, 2017 16:26:28 GMT
thanks both. why is august the quietest period for p2p Because much of the world is out of the office sunning themselves (especially lawyers and estate agents, who are not noted for blinding speed at the best of times).
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Post by df on May 28, 2017 0:27:17 GMT
There are a few 14% 3 months loans on collateral. what are the risks with them being short team? i thought it is a good thing as you get your capital back earlier? One risk is cash drag. There is likely to be a delay in reinvesting your money after it is repaid. When the loan period is shorter the depression of the effective interest rate by this cash drag is higher. So you might be better off in the long run by waiting a week and putting your money into an 18 month loan. Looking at current SM feast across platforms I don't think it can take that long to redeploy repaid capital at similar rate.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on May 28, 2017 8:05:00 GMT
I agree that, for the active investor, cash drag isn't too concerning. My default personal concern with short term loans is this (and the reason I'm sharing is partially to sense-check whether I'm being rational, so critique away) For every loan we take part in, one of the main risks is that the borrower's plans don't work out and the exit strategy becomes in hindsight flawed. This then usually means our capital is locked in for an extended period, and then eventually we either get all of it+interest, just the capital, or less than we invested. This applies to a loan of any duration. So, assuming all projects are equal, if I have one loan of 18 month duration with one borrower/project, then in terms of this particular risk then there's that one chance that it'll all go badly wrong. If I alternatively invest in six individual 3-month loans with different borrowers/projects sequentially of the same level of risk, my money has to work it's way through 6 projects successfully to come out of the other side. So, basically, it's like rolling two dice and hoping not get 'snake eyes' ...I feel a lot more confident if I only have to roll them once Now in reality, the risks of any loan are going to vary dramatically and longer projects often involve starting with a hole in the ground, whilst short ones might just be a lick of paint or waiting around for a mortgage to complete. In which case, assessing the value becomes more difficult. However, there are some short term loans where it's clear there are still risks (perhaps waiting for PP to come through), and you have to ask yourself 'would I be willing to take this risk 6 times in a row?' To end this ramble, I'm not saying never invest in short term loans, just be careful not to multiply your risks unnecessarily.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on May 28, 2017 8:19:05 GMT
I somewhat agree, but on the flipside you do at least have good visibility of most of the facts for the whole loan duration if it is short. 5 years opens the wormcans of what inflation, or the business, might conspire to do to you somewhere over the horizon.
Like most things, the answer is probably a mix/balance between long and short. There aee plenty of risks, including all those we have yet to think of.
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Post by dan1 on May 28, 2017 8:27:15 GMT
I agree r00lish67. One quantitative measure is to calculate the total interest, e.g. these 14% 3 month loans will return 3.5% interest. Is that sufficient return for the risk?
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yangmills
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Post by yangmills on May 28, 2017 23:48:40 GMT
When comparing the expected return between short vs. long-dated loans you need to take account of how the default probability is distributed over the lifetime of the loan vs. the timing of received cashflows.
Take as an example, two 12-month loans, both with a coupon of 12%, paid monthly in arrears, with a default probability of 10%/annum and a recovery rate of 50%. We can consider two distributions for the default intensity: one linear over the lifetime of the loan and the other a "jump-to-default" (JTD) at expiry of the loan. A trivial calculation shows that NPV (12m, linear) = 6.3% NPV (12m, JTD) = 6.9% The higher NPV of the loan with a JTD is driven by the expectation that more coupons are paid, prior to any default at maturity.
If we look at the NPV for the loan held just for the first 9 months and then liquidated at par, then NPV (9m, linear) = 4.8% NPV (9m, JTD) = 9.0% The loan with a JTD has zero default risk in the first 9 months and thus the NPV is simply 9% (9x1% coupons).
By simple conservation of cashflows, the NPV of the loan held over 12 months must be equivalent to the NPV of the loan held for 9-months and a loan held for 3-months, starting in 9-months time. Thus one can infer that NPV (last 3m, linear) = 1.5% NPV (last 3m, JTD) = -2.1%
So in this example, while the loan with a JTD risk has a higher NPV than that with a linear default risk over the total life of the loan, the behaviour in the last 3-months is very different. The NPV of the loan with a JTD starts to fall and becomes negative. The effective 10% default probability is being compressed into a short period (i.e the 3-month default rate, 9-months forward is above 40%). A 1-month loan, for example, would have a negative NPV of -3.7%. As time gets shorter, the NPV of loans with a JTD will tend toward the loss-given default (LGD) which is 5% (10% default prob x 50% recovery).
Many property bridge loans (on a number of P2P platforms) can be approximated as loans with a JTD at expiry. Since the interest is taken upfront, or all interest is rolled up to term, then the risk of default is small during the term but is concentrated at redemption.
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sg
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Post by sg on May 29, 2017 0:31:50 GMT
Isn't it nice when the maths confirms what you think intuitively. Short term loans are pretty much the same risk as longer loans but you get paid a lot less actual money for taking that risk. The game isn't worth the candle.
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