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Post by ranjeb on Jun 26, 2014 17:17:17 GMT
Well after just over 2yrs I've had my first default today, 3058 if interested. Not a bad run I think? I was a bit more carefree in the early days but thought I'd sold all my suspect holdings. Looking at this one in hindsight I prob still would have invested by ah well hopefully a blip and not start of a trend.
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markr
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Post by markr on Jun 27, 2014 9:31:23 GMT
They had a bit of a clearout of zombies, I picked up 2 defaults from previously RBRed loans, neither of which was 3058.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 27, 2014 11:44:17 GMT
Maybe if/when the loan book comes back it'll be almost entirely zombie free?!
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chrisf
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Post by chrisf on Jun 28, 2014 12:16:59 GMT
Well after just over 2yrs I've had my first default today, 3058 if interested. Not a bad run I think? I was a bit more carefree in the early days but thought I'd sold all my suspect holdings. Looking at this one in hindsight I prob still would have invested by ah well hopefully a blip and not start of a trend. 2 Years sounds like good going, ranjeb. What is your 'Luck Factor'? (Annualised return minus Estimated fully diversified return). I have had 2 defaults over a similar time period and have Luck Factor +1.7%. Other Funding Circlists I know are between +2% and -2%, though I assume there are people who have the time for extensive Due Dilligence or to sit here all day who are well above 2%. I'd love to know everyone's Luck Factor result, and hear an explanation of 'why?' for people outside the +2% to -2% range.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 28, 2014 12:35:11 GMT
This is only a 'luck measure' if you strip out cash backs, introducing friends bonuses, and flipping activity. The fully-diversified-net return also, IIRC, assumes you have all your funds invested, whereas the actual return number may take account of idle money (not sure about that I must admit .. FCs accounting methods are a bit mystical). If you buy, and flip, the cash back loans (even at 0% markup) you can get an annualised figure well into the high teens or low 20%s... assuming they sell, of course. (2% in a month, compounded, comes out quite high!).
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Post by davee39 on Jun 28, 2014 16:12:57 GMT
+ 3.7. (11.9 v 8.2). This is based on trying to flip all loans at a premium after a few months, and trying to get diversification down to 1%. One default and two loans in intensive care with the guarantor. 131 loans in total. The secondary market has appeared to be healthy over recent days. £20 Loan parts only, and no secondary market purchases. I have given up on the property loans, I do not like the risks involved when the property is due to be repaid or the discounts needed to earn the cashback and flip the loans.
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chrisf
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Post by chrisf on Jun 28, 2014 18:45:19 GMT
I nearly forgot that I have a small-scale auto-bid only account (very high auto-bid rates to hook the earlies) which has LF +2.4% (12.6% - 10.2%), but I think this result is slightly freakish because I started that account in mid-March of this year, just in time for the best couple of weeks FC has seen.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jun 28, 2014 19:45:01 GMT
I was pleased that my main account after nearly two years had a LF of 2.2% but this week I had a default and it is back down to 2% (9% return). Another account stared in Feb, to split the holding and fairly substantial is doing better with a LF of 5.1%, 13.9 actual versus 8.8 'fully deversified'. It will not last because much is due to cashback and it is too soon for losses, but it should stay well over 2%.
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Post by ranjeb on Jun 30, 2014 7:13:27 GMT
Hi My Luck Factor is 2.9 (was 3.4 before default) tbh I do no more due dilligence than what is provided by FC, I'm wary of auto traders and agriculture businesses having been an accountant in a former life.
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