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Post by martin44 on Aug 4, 2017 16:05:50 GMT
have you checked your safe lately! Dont have a safe but I would like to know where my lawn mower has gone. Is this your mower? I saw the blighter take it, shifty looking character, i managed to grab a photo but all the while i was thinking...... where have i seen that face before. 
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Aug 4, 2017 18:09:09 GMT
Why do these threads always start out as serious debate, but soon descend in to pointless noise?
I agree with the OP that over the long term the higher paying sites will outperform. But timing will hit some hard, if there is a housing crash in year 1. Others will have built up a buffer. I have managed to return over 10%pa after defaults and losses since 2012, so am glad I switched from RS/zopa, to higher paying sites back in 2012.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Aug 4, 2017 18:16:28 GMT
Why do these threads always start out as serious debate, but soon descend in to pointless noise? I agree with the OP that over the long term the higher paying sites will outperform. But timing will hit some hard, if there is a housing crash in year 1. Others will have built up a buffer. I have managed to return over 10%pa after defaults and losses since 2012, so am glad I switched from RS/zopa, to higher paying sites back in 2012. 2.5 Unlikely one would get a large amount fully vested in year 1. I still remember my first 750 pound loan for a lambo on Moneything 3 years ago and over the years since have built up a large P2P loan portfolio. Although I have had > 12% returns with no defaults, I stand to lose a lot if there was a great crash now, but I'm in for the long haul.
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angrysaveruk
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Say No To T.D.S
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Post by angrysaveruk on Aug 4, 2017 18:22:30 GMT
Why do these threads always start out as serious debate, but soon descend in to pointless noise? I agree with the OP that over the long term the higher paying sites will outperform. But timing will hit some hard, if there is a housing crash in year 1. Others will have built up a buffer. I have managed to return over 10%pa after defaults and losses since 2012, so am glad I switched from RS/zopa, to higher paying sites back in 2012. The fact my gardener is driving a 30k motor is highly relevant. This guy cant earn more than 18k a year max - I am amazed he can even afford to feed himself - which for me personally is the biggest indicator that cheap credit is flooding the system. When he turned up in his new car first thing that went through my head was "I need to get out of P2P unless it is secured on something ASAP".
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macq
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Post by macq on Aug 4, 2017 19:03:13 GMT
Why do these threads always start out as serious debate, but soon descend in to pointless noise? I agree with the OP that over the long term the higher paying sites will outperform. But timing will hit some hard, if there is a housing crash in year 1. Others will have built up a buffer. I have managed to return over 10%pa after defaults and losses since 2012, so am glad I switched from RS/zopa, to higher paying sites back in 2012. My bad on the pointless noise but if my investments go bad i will only have my sense of humour to fall back on so you can see how much trouble i will be in. Still think that the OP can only think/hope that higher paying sites will outperform.They will in an ideal world as they obviously pay more but who knows whats coming.Its a bit like an IFA telling you to buy the top performing fund of the last ten years,then when it tanks tells you past performance is only a guide.
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Post by martin44 on Aug 4, 2017 19:10:03 GMT
Why do these threads always start out as serious debate, but soon descend in to pointless noise? Sometimes they do Liz .. i agree.. i saw a rant or two on Fundingsecure a while back. 
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Post by explorep2p on Aug 5, 2017 22:25:59 GMT
Why do these threads always start out as serious debate, but soon descend in to pointless noise? I agree with the OP that over the long term the higher paying sites will outperform. But timing will hit some hard, if there is a housing crash in year 1. Others will have built up a buffer. I have managed to return over 10%pa after defaults and losses since 2012, so am glad I switched from RS/zopa, to higher paying sites back in 2012. My bad on the pointless noise but if my investments go bad i will only have my sense of humour to fall back on so you can see how much trouble i will be in. Still think that the OP can only think/hope that higher paying sites will outperform.They will in an ideal world as they obviously pay more but who knows whats coming.Its a bit like an IFA telling you to buy the top performing fund of the last ten years,then when it tanks tells you past performance is only a guide. Hi Macq The whole point of the post was to question this - if you are planning to put money into a low return product for more than 6/12 months, how bad do things need to get (real estate declines, defaults) for that to be an optimal decison in terms of future returns? The results show why investing into higher return, real estate secured loans can generate higher expected returns in scenarios that are not just 'ideal world' scenarios. In fact after 5 years you can go through a fairly big economic decline and still be ahead. It is scenario modelling, it's nothing to do with hoping or wanting a particular outcome. That being said, some investors will still favour the move stable lower return products due to their personal circumstances or outlook on life, and that's cool too.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Aug 6, 2017 10:08:31 GMT
Definitely food for thought here imo, so thankyou OP.
However, it would seem that no allowance has been made for platform risk, and particularly platform risk in a recessionary environment. It's all very well suggesting a default rate for the loans, ( 50% in the case quoted ) , or whatever, but what about the risk of the entire platform going under ?? There can be little doubt that the likes of Zopa and Ratesetter ie. mature platforms that have been around for a good while pose a lower platform risk that those outfits paying much higher rates.
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macq
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Post by macq on Aug 6, 2017 12:18:25 GMT
My bad on the pointless noise but if my investments go bad i will only have my sense of humour to fall back on so you can see how much trouble i will be in. Still think that the OP can only think/hope that higher paying sites will outperform.They will in an ideal world as they obviously pay more but who knows whats coming.Its a bit like an IFA telling you to buy the top performing fund of the last ten years,then when it tanks tells you past performance is only a guide. Hi Macq The whole point of the post was to question this - if you are planning to put money into a low return product for more than 6/12 months, how bad do things need to get (real estate declines, defaults) for that to be an optimal decison in terms of future returns? The results show why investing into higher return, real estate secured loans can generate higher expected returns in scenarios that are not just 'ideal world' scenarios. In fact after 5 years you can go through a fairly big economic decline and still be ahead. It is scenario modelling, it's nothing to do with hoping or wanting a particular outcome. That being said, some investors will still favour the move stable lower return products due to their personal circumstances or outlook on life, and that's cool too. Understood & agree with where you are coming from but your last line about people's outlook on life was more what i was trying to say.People know that higher risk should mean better returns in a good or bad market and lower risk should be safer in both markets as well but their are no guarantees and the reverse could even be true. I personally don't understand people investing in absolute return funds as if you are willing to invest in stocks or bonds you may as well go all in or not invest in the first place,so may be its true of P2P as well.But for a lot of people its about preserving the capital first and then hoping to make a return second its why some people buy premium bonds as they may not make any interest and in real terms lose a bit due to inflation but at the end of the day they can get their capital back. Also scenario modelling sounds good and may be proven to be right but still sounds like the info put out by fund managers & IFA and if it could be guaranteed would everybody not be following the same plan? But it does make for interesting reading.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 7, 2017 7:26:59 GMT
Any kind of modelling, from scenario modelling through stress testing and back testing can be useful, and done well will be useful in that at the least the process should be informative. Just don't make the mistake of thinking that a model perfectly represents the real world.
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Post by albermarle on Aug 13, 2017 11:00:06 GMT
You are right it is only a model and there is an assumption that the original 70% LTV's were based on accurate valuations in the first place .
A subject often mentioned on these forums .....
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GeorgeT
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Post by GeorgeT on Aug 13, 2017 21:38:13 GMT
Why do these threads always start out as serious debate, but soon descend in to pointless noise? I agree with the OP that over the long term the higher paying sites will outperform. But timing will hit some hard, if there is a housing crash in year 1. Others will have built up a buffer. I have managed to return over 10%pa after defaults and losses since 2012, so am glad I switched from RS/zopa, to higher paying sites back in 2012. The fact my gardener is driving a 30k motor is highly relevant. This guy cant earn more than 18k a year max - I am amazed he can even afford to feed himself - which for me personally is the biggest indicator that cheap credit is flooding the system. When he turned up in his new car first thing that went through my head was "I need to get out of P2P unless it is secured on something ASAP". It's totally irrelevant surely. What has the value of his car got to do with anything. Perhaps he inherited money or has saved hard. My annual income is less than £18k and I drive a £35k car I bought new in March (with discount of course). Lots of people are capital rich but income poor.I know a multi millionairess whose only income is her old age pension and a bit of bank interest. If he hasn't got a mortgage or rent to pay he's probably quite well off in terms of disposable income.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Aug 13, 2017 22:02:43 GMT
The fact my gardener is driving a 30k motor is highly relevant. This guy cant earn more than 18k a year max - I am amazed he can even afford to feed himself - which for me personally is the biggest indicator that cheap credit is flooding the system. When he turned up in his new car first thing that went through my head was "I need to get out of P2P unless it is secured on something ASAP". It's totally irrelevant surely. What has the value of his car got to do with anything. Perhaps he inherited money or has saved hard.
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angrysaveruk
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Say No To T.D.S
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Post by angrysaveruk on Aug 13, 2017 22:06:44 GMT
The fact my gardener is driving a 30k motor is highly relevant. This guy cant earn more than 18k a year max - I am amazed he can even afford to feed himself - which for me personally is the biggest indicator that cheap credit is flooding the system. When he turned up in his new car first thing that went through my head was "I need to get out of P2P unless it is secured on something ASAP". My annual income is less than £18k and I drive a £35k car I bought new in March (with discount of course). You should probably hang out together.
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Post by yorkshireman on Aug 14, 2017 9:39:16 GMT
Why do these threads always start out as serious debate, but soon descend in to pointless noise? You could say the same about some threads descending into IT and computing gobbledegook or when some self appointed authorities expound unnecessarily complex theories about investing plus the gazillions of suggestions for improving a platform.
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Is this your mower? I saw the blighter take it, shifty looking character, i managed to grab a photo but all the while i was thinking...... where have i seen that face before.
