seabbs
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Post by seabbs on Aug 6, 2017 22:47:36 GMT
Hi guys, Just been exploring the FC loan-book and wondered if the day of the week might be related to default risk? Logically you could imagine that more desperate borrowers might either apply for loans early or late in the week. Graphing the data indicates that this might be possible - particularly for higher risk loans: www.dropbox.com/s/eflf6gneder9j1z/Screenshot%202017-08-06%2023.35.35.png?dl=0 Might be worth cracking out some stats and investigating more formally! Has anyone tried this as a strategy?
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markr
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Post by markr on Aug 7, 2017 13:43:38 GMT
I'm guessing that the day is the day that the loan filled, since this is the only way there could be weekend loans (except for E which only stay on the market for a nanosecond hence no Saturday and Sunday data for E). This indicates the first problem; how long a loan stays on the market strongly correlates with size, so day of the week also has a size component. Es are an interesting data point though, and do indeed suggest that Monday's loans are full of woe, although I suspect there's not really enough of them to be significant.
It is interesting that large D loans (only very big ones make it to Saturday and absolute monsters to Sunday) seem to be safer than smaller ones; this is likely to be because, in riskier bands, the chance of a loan defaulting does not correlate strongly with size, but you've scaled your bars by amount lent. We're talking about a small subset of a small subset of the overall loan book, so again it's best not to read too much into it, especially since the effect is absent for C band.
I'd also expect a monthly variation, for example, with desperate borrowers applying when they realise they aren't going to cover the payroll for the month. Since days of the week move through dates of the month, this will work to blur defaults over different days.
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markr
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Post by markr on Aug 7, 2017 14:00:27 GMT
I've also just noticed that you've used the loan book from 2010 onward. The primary market used to be very different, with loans open to bidding for up to 14 days, and a further 5 working days allowed for the companies to mull over the final rate and decide whether to accept the loan, although once a loan was 100% full it could be accepted at any time. This process meant there was almost no connection between the day of the week a loan went live and the day it was drawn down, so data from this era is only polluting your graphs. Try plotting them again starting from the time that FC went exclusively fixed rate, around September 2015.
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seabbs
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Post by seabbs on Aug 7, 2017 14:26:23 GMT
Yes, it isn't explicit in the data (coded as the date of loan acceptance) but I think you are probably right - it would be great to have access to the date loans are put on the platform. So you're entirely correct that loan size would confound this to some extent, limiting the previous plot to loans below 100,000 (data is becoming sparse at this point) you still see some evidence of a relationship (although this is weaker) [ www.dropbox.com/s/y7xsexgieo9r4ce/Screenshot%202017-08-07%2014.56.53%282%29.png?dl=0 ]. There is still the issue that loans deemed to be unappealing take longer to fill (so we might see worse loans filing on Tuesday that were offered on Monday for example) - this would indicate that people are successfully picking loans to some extent! Loan size is an interesting point - especially as we see more large loans over time [ www.dropbox.com/s/5gycnqmhbrsrnjn/Screenshot%202017-08-07%2015.02.51%282%29.png?dl=0 ] so presumably, a growing number of investors are all investing in the same loans. I haven't implemented any other scaling yet (scaling by no. of loans is the next goal - although I have run into an interface issue). As a crude approximation if we look at the number of loans by status [ www.dropbox.com/s/1t5bflqo5pr5sec/Screenshot%202017-08-07%2015.09.20%282%29.png?dl=0 ] there isn't much evidence of a different number of loans across the working week. If we just look at defaulted loans [ www.dropbox.com/s/ynvvxvsh7e9nde4/Screenshot%202017-08-07%2015.13.19%282%29.png?dl=0 ] we do see some evidence that loans from Tuesday and Thursday are worse. This could again a factor of time to fill. Total right about the blurring effect, not really seeing an obvious pattern over the month though (probably blurred by working week) [ www.dropbox.com/s/gjw2zg8g3vcfy5l/Screenshot%202017-08-07%2014.47.03%282%29.png?dl=0 ]. All in all, not a strong signal, could argue that it is evidence for dumping loans that take a while to fill (although you would need some metric normalised for loan size) I'm using this by the way (http://www.seabbs.co.uk/shiny/fcdashboard ) really interested in any further feature suggestions (normalising by number of loans is a good one)
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seabbs
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Post by seabbs on Aug 7, 2017 14:30:52 GMT
Just saw your reply - good point. I am at work so no time right now - if you fancy having a look use this [ www.seabbs.co.uk/shiny/fcdashboard ] click on the FC dashboard tab and then set the plot defaults. There is a slider in the menu to control the date. I will probably get around to looking at some more permutations this evening - thinking about doing some actual stats as well. I would note that higher risk loans were only introduced recently and as the signal is strongest there it is unlikely the bidding process is an issue. Also, the volume of loans has massively increased so the early years will have a reduced effect.
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seabbs
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Post by seabbs on Aug 8, 2017 11:17:28 GMT
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