jo
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Post by jo on Jul 1, 2014 15:41:17 GMT
Interested in people's simple (ie unweighted) recovery rate from the All Time Earnings Summary (Recoveries/Bad Debt/ X 100). Mine is 3.6%.....I feel blessed!  |
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blender
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Post by blender on Jul 1, 2014 16:11:46 GMT
Mine is 43%, though I am expecting some more losses at any time.
From the statistics FC overall is 17% - they actually net off the recoveries from the bad debt to make it look better. So the formula there is recoveries/ bad debt+recoveries x100. You could also add the zombies of 'late greater than 90 days' to the bad debt because they are really defaults propped up.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jul 1, 2014 16:48:16 GMT
Not as far as I know Blender, they net it off 'losses' but 'bad debts' shows the original total I believe. Good job, saves you the ()!
Mine, fwiw, is about 30%, propped up by the 50% recovery from B***** (the big engineering loan) and the 100% from a dodgy IT company which never made payment #1, and FC covered themselves. Ignoring those it'd be somewhere South of 'dire'. The good news is it can only get better over time (or not change) .. why only this month I got very nearly a whole packet of smarties worth, from a smart restaurant!
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blender
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Post by blender on Jul 1, 2014 17:03:09 GMT
Sorry I was not clear enough GSVetc.
In the earnings summary it is as you say. On the FC overall statistics page, just before where the loan book used to be, the bad debt is really losses rather than total bad debt, unless it has changed.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jul 1, 2014 17:34:10 GMT
Ah, I never look at the overall (only the loan book, when it is there) since FCs grasp of basic Math defeats me.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jul 1, 2014 18:04:00 GMT
So GSVetc, you can remember the old loan book which we were once allowed to see. You must be an FC old-timer like me. Newcomers will not know the joys of looking through the complete loan book, though I think they are still told they can. I suppose there is no real hurry for FC to restore it, well not before the whole loan trial is completed.
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mikeb
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Post by mikeb on Jul 1, 2014 18:18:37 GMT
Not as far as I know Blender, they net it off 'losses' but 'bad debts' shows the original total I believe. Good job, saves you the ()! Mine, fwiw, is about 30%, propped up by the 50% recovery from B***** (the big engineering loan) and the 100% from a dodgy IT company which never made payment #1, and FC covered themselves. Ignoring those it'd be somewhere South of 'dire'. The good news is it can only get better over time (or not change) .. why only this month I got very nearly a whole packet of smarties worth, from a smart restaurant! In "real terms" mine is 20.6% ... however, like yours, that is propped up by 2 specific loans -- one where the borrower defaulted but paid up later in full, plus all expected interest (!) ... and another one where FC put their hand in their own pocket to compensate lenders on the full amount straight away. Without those two, 12.6% ... Seems to be a lot of "we are waiting for someone else to do something" comments attached to the rest. No surprise that with no security, and no apparent urgency, recoveries aren't higher. Edit: Add to that 21.3% now deemed "irrecoverable", and a further 58% in "unknown" territory ... with FC having given up on Loans 759, 212 and 986 today, I see that someone is having a clearout ... All loans with director's guarantees, and all with the directors having gone bankrupt instead of paying up. This won't improve the stats at all ... director's guarantees: Not worth the paper they're printed on.
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Post by transo on Jul 1, 2014 20:24:03 GMT
I've not managed to enjoy :-) any of the loans FC made good themselves. My recovery rate after being in FC from the off is a rather pathetic 6.3%. Still, at least that's improved a bit lately with only the recoveries figure increasing... Was supposed to get 6 monthly updates on a couple of long-running sagas last month, but not heard anything and don't think I'll hold my breath!
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Post by valerieb on Jul 2, 2014 7:40:08 GMT
A pathetic 4%, all coming from one source (nearly a whole pack of smarties, GSV3MIaC? They're paying me in limp lettuce leaves). Can't remember precisely what the other 3 sets of guarantors are promising although I think one is planning to pay up a few p in a year's time.
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merlin
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Post by merlin on Jul 2, 2014 8:47:32 GMT
In total mine is just under 20% and that is a fairly substantial improvement since this time last year when it was almost down into single figures. I gripped like hell on the old indie about defaults and losses then but certainly as far as I am concerned both seem to have improved this year. However I still have Crappy Scrappy and a couple of others which to be honest look like lost causes.
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walktall7
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Post by walktall7 on Jul 2, 2014 9:54:34 GMT
I stoped investing in FC in Aug 13 and sold all my loans at that time. Since then I have had a 4% recovery
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Post by mead187 on Jul 2, 2014 20:51:45 GMT
my bad debt recovery is 0% - 3 fully defaulted loans and one defaulted loan which is meant to resume payments "soon"
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markr
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Post by markr on Jul 3, 2014 8:30:14 GMT
Mine is 17% if you count the loans FC repaid for us, 10.8% if you don't.
To be fair to FC, though, these figures are pretty meaningless. The bad debt isn't necessarily irrecoverable (for example some of my total comes from loans that were only defaulted last Friday so they could hardly be expected to have recovered anything yet) and recovery can take a long time. However, new bad debt can be accrue at any time, so taking two current snapshot figures is likely to underestimate FC's recovery performance. A fairer estimate might be to take the ratio of bad debt accrued up to some time in the past (say 2 years ago) to recoveries made to date from those loans to allow for the lengthy recoveries process.
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Post by valerieb on Jul 3, 2014 9:02:44 GMT
I agree with markr that the figures are fairly meaningless; I too expect to recover more than 4% over time and FC appear to be pursuing lates with more alacrity than previously. Personally, my experience of bad debt/late payments etc has not dented my enthusiasm for p2b lending generally or FC in particular. Only a tiny percentage of my loans give me any cause for concern; the majority of the bad debts/lates had some degree of predictability and were often a reflection of my desire to get the money out of my account quickly whilst ignoring warning bells, some were less predictable or completely unforeseen e.g. fires (although I did invest in a number of firework importers!). The vast majority of my loans pay up on time each month and I expect will continue to do so..........if that isn't tempting fate.......fingers crossed.
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jo
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Post by jo on Jul 3, 2014 10:51:34 GMT
I agree with most that it's pretty meaningless in raw form (I hinted as much in my original post).
I guess if I had any concerns, it would be at the distribution of recoveries. Mine are concentrated in maybe two borrowers who are making ad-hoc recovery payments (out of 15), the rest, nada.
I'd like FC to increase the data transparency of recoveries. I know the information is available but extracting it is laborious imo. An exportable .csv of recovery payments by Bad Debt borrowers should be a simple task for FC to facilitate.
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