Post by masquedefer on Aug 23, 2017 13:45:11 GMT
I'm not sure if someone is already monitoring Ly's defaulted loans + potential loans that might default and comparing it against against total loan book?
Is it worthwhile to have a pinned page on this BB to monitor this? Say on a monthly basis? It seems easy to calculate and could help flag abnormal risk and trends.
From what I can make out
Potential loans that might default = loans < 1day * current default risk rate
Defaulted loans + potential loans that might default (=loans less than 1 day * current default rate @ say 15%) = about £28.2M, i.e. £24.2M +(27.2M*15%).
The total loan book is about £161M.
This gives a total potential capital loss ratio is 17.5% (£28.2M/£161M) (which can be compared against interest paid).
With a total capital recovery rate of say 50% (worse case?
) on all defaults this indicates a loss of capital 8.75% (which can be compared against interest paid).
With a capital recovery rate of say 75% (likely scenario?) then this indicates a capital loss of 4.37% (which can be compared against interest paid)
Perhaps "Potential loans that might default should equal ((total loan book less defaulted loans) * current default risk rate
? In which case the above calcs will appear much worse
Anybody handy with spreadsheets who could develop this further?
Is it worthwhile to have a pinned page on this BB to monitor this? Say on a monthly basis? It seems easy to calculate and could help flag abnormal risk and trends.
From what I can make out
Potential loans that might default = loans < 1day * current default risk rate
Defaulted loans + potential loans that might default (=loans less than 1 day * current default rate @ say 15%) = about £28.2M, i.e. £24.2M +(27.2M*15%).
The total loan book is about £161M.
This gives a total potential capital loss ratio is 17.5% (£28.2M/£161M) (which can be compared against interest paid).
With a total capital recovery rate of say 50% (worse case?
) on all defaults this indicates a loss of capital 8.75% (which can be compared against interest paid).With a capital recovery rate of say 75% (likely scenario?
) then this indicates a capital loss of 4.37% (which can be compared against interest paid)Perhaps "Potential loans that might default should equal ((total loan book less defaulted loans) * current default risk rate
? In which case the above calcs will appear much worse
Anybody handy with spreadsheets who could develop this further?
