j
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Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on Jul 4, 2014 8:10:03 GMT
A lot of activity today! Is the apocalypse around the corner or is it just underwriters?
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Jul 4, 2014 8:51:19 GMT
Saw three suspicious characters ride past on big horses this morning if that helps?
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Post by batchoy on Jul 4, 2014 10:12:56 GMT
I had my shadow bid for the first tranche of the Midlands Trade Finance loan called in yesterday, so maybe the underwriters are trying to liquidate some of their existing investments in order to cover their commitments to this one so that it can be drawn down. Though with penguins starting to fly maybe we are approaching the apocalypse.  |
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j
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Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on Jul 4, 2014 11:47:37 GMT
I had my shadow bid for the first tranche of the Midlands Trade Finance loan called in yesterday, so maybe the underwriters are trying to liquidate some of their existing investments in order to cover their commitments to this one so that it can be drawn down. Though with penguins starting to fly maybe we are approaching the apocalypse. PENGUINS RULE!! 
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Post by andrewholgate on Jul 4, 2014 13:19:24 GMT
Back in December we had £500k of activity on the Aftermarket. Last month we had £4m. This is just a switch in the way we have underwritten loans and now sell down risk on the AM.
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kermie
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Post by kermie on Jul 4, 2014 16:43:18 GMT
Whilst I am in general very happy to see plenty of AM activity - I am a little concerned that with a potential imbalance of sellers > buyers (as I perceive it today) that we may reach a point where satisfying shadow bids by way of selling other loan parts in the AM may take several days. That worries me a little since I clearly want to ensure that I can satisfy my shadow bids as and when needed.
Some context:The only shadow bid I have had called in so far gave me 4 hours notice to draw down. I don't think I could have achieved that today on the AM unless I had sold loan parts that I didn't actually want to sell.
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ramblin rose
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“Some people grumble that roses have thorns; I am grateful that thorns have roses.” — Alphonse Karr
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Post by ramblin rose on Jul 4, 2014 17:26:13 GMT
Whilst I am in general very happy to see plenty of AM activity - I am a little concerned that with a potential imbalance of sellers > buyers (as I perceive it today) that we may reach a point where satisfying shadow bids by way of selling other loan parts in the AM may take several days. That worries me a little since I clearly want to ensure that I can satisfy my shadow bids as and when needed. Some context:The only shadow bid I have had called in so far gave me 4 hours notice to draw down. I don't think I could have achieved that today on the AM unless I had sold loan parts that I didn't actually want to sell. It doesn't seem all that sensible to me to be relying on AM sales to cover shadow bids really. I'm not a big enough player in AC to have been allowed a shadow bid facility, but should I ever bother to reach that point my attitude would be (as it is elsewhere) to assume that I would need to cover it from additional funds, and then if I was able to cover it by AM sales that would be a bonus. At the moment, there is always the fact that GoCardless payments don't need to be covered for several days, which helps those who really feel the need to bid on things for which their only means of payment is tied up in loans. I haven't been with AC all that long. I guess most of you have got used to using AC as a bank and parking short term money in loans here, but going forward, as kermie is highlighting, you might need to be careful not to 'park' money in heavily underwritten loans. And that might be most of them following on from what Andrew said earlier.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Jul 4, 2014 17:53:12 GMT
I deliberately do not overbuy in the big underwritten loans in order to use AC as a "bank" with instant access facility to provide quick funds later on new loans (or for any other purpose). I may well overbuy on the small loans which will be easily saleable at a later point. One of the results of not enough "small-time" lenders in a rapidly growing platform like AC is that extensive underwriting means our funds are NOT easily got at in an emergency, though in theory they are.
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j
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Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on Jul 4, 2014 18:06:59 GMT
I'd already taken the decision not to bid anymore in medium to large underwritten loans anymore. Having been bitten once recently-ish by doing exactly this then having the shadow bid called earlier than expected, I sold in a loan I really wanted to keep to cover the shortfall. Lesson learnt indeed.
A lot of the loans seem underwritten (even the small £100k London one is not being picked off & may require underwriting) may suggest a little bit of saturation or other investors thinking along the same lines of holding back till units hit the AM, no matter what size they are, which is akin to what AH intimated earlier.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Jul 4, 2014 18:34:31 GMT
I'm still rejigging my diversity post cashback, selling where I'm heavy to buy into new loans (I'm not sure if kermie is doing this?). I've tried to keep some dead money on site to cover one shadow bid ahead at a time, so calling two in on the same day had me for for a moment. So having the AM log-jammed, as it is, may make me call in more money from off site. Of course seeing the AM logjammed makes me want to put more up for sale making the logjam worse, is log jam a word? AC always consider the exit for a loan so do we. |
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kermie
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Post by kermie on Jul 4, 2014 19:00:31 GMT
Yes - I've been selling down a couple of loans which I am "overweight" in so that I can rebalance and diversify - but unfortunately that tended to be a couple of loans which underwriters are now offloading. Yes, ramblin rose makes a good point - GoCardless can buy you a few days to shuffle things around - I used it for exactly this for a recent shadow call-in. I do hope AC keep GoCardless (despite fees), or if it is removed then they continue to allow a few days grace for deposits. Keeping a pile of cash in my current account to cover shadow bids seems to defeat the purpose, a little. I've been limiting my shadow bids, however, to avoid getting caught - I'm only making use of about a third of my shadow limit. I had been picking up lots of AM loan parts via AI, gradually diversifying, but that stopped because of the pre-bids I put in (which blocks AI from buying) ...I am tempted to throw those away just to get back the ability to use AI to buy. It is an irony, isn't it, Ton ⓉⓞⓃ, that as soon as the AM picks up and gets "log jammed", that's exactly the time that I want to sell off some loans in order to diversify some more and pick up those log-jammed loans! Thanks all for your perspective. |
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mikeb
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Post by mikeb on Jul 5, 2014 18:32:21 GMT
pre-bids I put in (which blocks AI from buying) ...I am tempted to throw those away just to get back the ability to use AI to buy. I've also recently done that. Having pre-bids sat there for Aberystwyth, Weston Super Mare, Redruth -- none of which seem to moving anywhere, in some cases for months and multiple listing attempts -- seems pointless. Apparently cashbacks are racking up on these 3 loans due to the long delays, but as the cashbacks for some loans which have been drawn down (Yorkshire, any others?) aren't being paid (despite multiple questions) -- I don't see the cashbacks as any kind of incentive. We'll soon be after cashback compensation on the delayed cashback payments, which could get complicated  Then there's still cashbacks owing on a loan cancelled in February (High Wycombe), some "goodwill" gesture  It's getting to be too much hassle trying to keep track of how much bid/prebid is in each non-moving auction, to work out what the cashback should be. Ignore and move on ... if the loans ever become real, maybe AI will pick something up, time to switch to just buying when there's stuff available on the AM.
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j
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Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on Jul 5, 2014 19:18:31 GMT
pre-bids I put in (which blocks AI from buying) ...I am tempted to throw those away just to get back the ability to use AI to buy. I've also recently done that. Having pre-bids sat there for Aberystwyth, Weston Super Mare, Redruth -- none of which seem to moving anywhere, in some cases for months and multiple listing attempts -- seems pointless. Apparently cashbacks are racking up on these 3 loans due to the long delays, but as the cashbacks for some loans which have been drawn down (Yorkshire, any others?) aren't being paid (despite multiple questions) -- I don't see the cashbacks as any kind of incentive. We'll soon be after cashback compensation on the delayed cashback payments, which could get complicated Then there's still cashbacks owing on a loan cancelled in February (High Wycombe), some "goodwill" gesture It's getting to be too much hassle trying to keep track of how much bid/prebid is in each non-moving auction, to work out what the cashback should be. Ignore and move on ... if the loans ever become real, maybe AI will pick something up, time to switch to just buying when there's stuff available on the AM. Took the words right out of my mouth mikeb. I think AC is purposely trying to move to being an underwritten operation on the whole & putting units up on AM afterwards. I will certainly think twice before placing bids/pre-bids & shadow bids in any given loan & will also not be deceived with any cashback offers unless it is very clear & contractual that it is paid on each loan once it's drawn down individually & not en masse.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Jul 7, 2014 13:50:30 GMT
My suspicion is that the unusual AM activity is simply a lot of people saying, "Lets see how AC deal with the FF issue..." On good news about FF more money will come in to pay for shad bids. But until then more people than usual are selling down in one thing to buy another. Another reason: The time to start to ease out of some of the big bridges is coming or maybe people are realizing the rate reflects the risk/unpredictability of these loans. It would be good if AC or an experienced Lender would give some figures on how Bridges fair, how many default with/without loss, how many get extended etc...
For FF you could also include Anglesey bri, South Manc. bri, Bolton bri...
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Jul 14, 2014 19:55:30 GMT
Whilst I am in general very happy to see plenty of AM activity - I am a little concerned that with a potential imbalance of sellers > buyers (as I perceive it today) that we may reach a point where satisfying shadow bids by way of selling other loan parts in the AM may take several days. That worries me a little since I clearly want to ensure that I can satisfy my shadow bids as and when needed. Some context:The only shadow bid I have had called in so far gave me 4 hours notice to draw down. I don't think I could have achieved that today on the AM unless I had sold loan parts that I didn't actually want to sell. ... going forward, as kermie is highlighting, you might need to be careful not to 'park' money in heavily underwritten loans. It's not just heavily underwritten loans. My purchases of Epping, Hackney, and Ipswich were made at a time when their horseshoe charts were showing very little, if any, underwriter involvement, and the U/W share of those loans has been showing as nil for some time now. But, as someone who has been trying to sell parts in those loans recently, I can confirm that they just aren't shifting. So my feeling is that all large loans -- whether or not there's any underwriter share shown in the horseshoe -- are risky places to 'park' money temporarily. Perhaps this is just an anomaly caused by the April cashback offer. I probably brought more money into AC for that, and ran down my easy access resources too far in response to that offer. Now I'm trying to rectify that, but perhaps others are doing the same and that is compounding the problem. PS. I forgot to add that another factor that's bound to discourage new investment and encourage more Aftermarket selling is the Auction 70 situation. Not to mention other loans that are showing warnings of a "change in the credit position".
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