shimself
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Post by shimself on Sept 6, 2017 7:24:11 GMT
This was inspired by a discussion elsewhere about the relative merits of p2p and the stockmarket, and my hypothesis is that as retirement approaches the stockmarket is too dangerous however well diversified you are, but p2x investment is still a reasonable thing to do.
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bg
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Post by bg on Sept 6, 2017 8:14:13 GMT
This was inspired by a discussion elsewhere about the relative merits of p2p and the stockmarket, and my hypothesis is that as retirement approaches the stockmarket is too dangerous however well diversified you are, but p2x investment is still a reasonable thing to do. Who says you have to be over 50 when you retire!
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Post by uncletone on Sept 6, 2017 8:27:12 GMT
Who says you have to be over 50 when you retire! Everybody who didn't quite manage it. 
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marka
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Post by marka on Sept 6, 2017 9:59:17 GMT
As someone who turned 50 a few weeks ago, but doesn't want to admit it to myself, I chose the better sounding of the two options you gave me  |
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Sept 6, 2017 11:04:29 GMT
As someone who turned 50 a few weeks ago, but doesn't want to admit it to myself, I chose the better sounding of the two options you gave me I tried to make it so that the life stage was the determining factor, the numbers were a mere guide. Now if you want to think that retirement lies in the far future that's your choice.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Sept 6, 2017 18:42:50 GMT
The important point behind all this is correct levels of exposure (both in terms of asset allocation and risk within assets). Of course its not right for a pensionner to be 100% exposed to potentially risky assets like stocks or P2P. The level of overall risk should be heavily dialled down as you get older. But I would argue the stockmarket provides you with far more options to dial-down and diversivy the remaining risk thatn P2P does at present (and possibly might ever do). Boring - FTSE 100 tracker. 2007-6500 2010-3500 A 46% loss in 2-1/2 years (maybe 40% after dividends). Fortunately I wasn't much involved, but it scares the  out of me.
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Post by elephantrosie on Sept 6, 2017 19:19:59 GMT
valid question.
but the introductory is wrong. my plan is to ventured into s&s in five years time (when i am older and has more time in hand). higher risk only if you do not do DD.
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Post by beeje13 on Sept 6, 2017 20:16:48 GMT
Looks like I'm on my own around here...
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Sept 6, 2017 21:26:16 GMT
valid question. but the introductory is wrong. my plan is to ventured into s&s in five years time (when i am older and has more time in hand). higher risk only if you do not do DD. I think my point is that DD is not helpful. Yer actual Neil Woodford today said It actually may be a surprise to our investors. But it is the fact of life that the regulatory environment that sits around public markets ensures that I can't know all the things that I would want to know," in trying to apologise for their heavy losses over the last 18months. If he can't do decent DD then what chance have we got? Or Buffet says invest in a tracker and have done with it (paraphrase) and that produces these occasional horrible falls. And being largely a game of winners and losers, gambling, it's not for me.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Sept 6, 2017 21:36:00 GMT
....... Third 100% into a FTSE100 tracker is neither boring or correctly balanced, especially if you only taking a short term view (2.5 years is nothing in tracker terms). But even if all you had in the world was 100% in FTSE100 in 2007, if, like you should, you take a long term view whilst investing using trackers the FTSE100 (to take your example) is 7354 today. No sign of your 46% loss and you've even showing a positive P&L. The reality is I've been there, others have been there. And whilst, yes, 2008 was a scary time, with a balanced portfolio it was not necessarily the end of the world. And I an speak from my own and others experiences that you've missed a great deal of opporunties by not holding firm where appropriate and then getting back in and buying more once the worst of the storm passed, lots of "easy" bargains were to be had. Up 13% in 10 years isn't exactly good. You might have seen them as "easy" bargains, I read all sorts of advice, all contradictory. I keep remembering Japan still hasn't got back to where it was in 1990. p2x - I have a better understanding of small business, property somewhat. In most instances I pick what I think won't go too far wrong, and so far (since 2006 and Zopa in fact) I'm ahead every year
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macq
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Post by macq on Sept 6, 2017 22:33:58 GMT
as someone heading fast to the retirement years who has been doing funds for over 30 years & p2p for just over 1 year i would say they are both risky in their own way.Yes funds will have bad periods but when you think that some IT have been around for over 100 years and some like F&C 150 years they have seen it all from wars to recession and are still going strong they are what i would use for retirement as they will pay dividends and you can hopefully sit and wait for the growth.if investing for retirement you should be doing it on a regular basis to get the benefit of pound cost averaging yes the 100 tracker may be up 13% (but to be fair i could name a fund up 12% in 6 months & 80% over 2 years today but know it will be different tomorrow as its about timing with the figures) but could be more or less depending on the day you put it in if investing a lump sum which is why its probably not a good idea to put a lump sum in at retirement.I was once told that the best way to look at the returns on funds is to look at the annualised return. Also as Japan was mentioned that as of today the BG japan trust is up 260% over 5 years according to HL i would not have minded some of that  While p2p is risky for the many reasons normally mentioned,if all goes well it may suit a lump sum better at retirement as you will have a good idea of the time scale and the reward much like savings accounts but with better rates |
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Post by martin44 on Sept 6, 2017 22:38:49 GMT
Boring - FTSE 100 tracker. 2007-6500 2010-3500 A 46% loss in 2-1/2 years (maybe 40% after dividends). Fortunately I wasn't much involved, but it scares the out of me. The reality is I've been there, others have been there. And whilst, yes, 2008 was a scary time, with a balanced portfolio it was not necessarily the end of the world. And I an speak from my own and others experiences that you've missed a great deal of opporunties by not holding firm where appropriate and then getting back in and buying more once the worst of the storm passed, lots of "easy" bargains were to be had. Hindsight and experience are a wonderful thing, many (MANY) invested in p2p today, (myself included) unfortunately do not have the clear knowledge and experience that you have, we (I) tend to operate on our own DD wits, and forum input from certain helpful posters. I read input here and elsewhere on a daily basis, to try and glean as much info as possible to try and protect my investments, i have read your post's so far and found them to be extremely interesting and informative, thanks for that. However please forgive me if i also point out that they are also appearing to me to be a little 'Preachy' . JMHO.
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yangmills
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Post by yangmills on Sept 6, 2017 23:14:03 GMT
Up 13% in 10 years isn't exactly good .... FTSE 100 Total Return Index on 6-Sep-2007 was 3616.57, closed on 6-Sep- 2017 at 6185.51. That's a 71.03% increase. True, the FTSE 100 has been a poor performer. The FTSE ASX has returned over 80% due to the FTSE 250 returning over 125%. Of course the S&P has returned around 215% (again total return terms with reinvested dividends and a bit of a tailwind from GBP/USD). I do wish people would stop quoting returns on stock indices whilst completely ignoring the compounded impact of reinvesting dividends. Total returns are what matters, not the price level of the index. If you think only in prices terms then P2P would be even more of a disaster: you'd buy a P2P loan at par and it would redeem at par, so your return would be zero!
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Post by Harland Kearney on Sept 6, 2017 23:24:47 GMT
Looks like I'm on my own around here... I'm 19, I'm with you buddy 
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Post by martin44 on Sept 6, 2017 23:42:36 GMT
Up 13% in 10 years isn't exactly good .... FTSE 100 Total Return Index on 6-Sep-2007 was 3616.57, closed on 6-Sep- 2017 at 6185.51. That's a 71.03% increase. True, the FTSE 100 has been a poor performer. The FTSE ASX has returned over 80% due to the FTSE 250 returning over 125%. Of course the S&P has returned around 215% (again total return terms with reinvested dividends and a bit of a tailwind from GBP/USD). I do wish people would stop quoting returns on stock indices whilst completely ignoring the compounded impact of reinvesting dividends. Total returns are what matters, not the price level of the index. If you think only in prices terms then P2P is a disaster: you buy a P2P loan at par and it redeems at par so your return would be zero! my bold.. sorry but.. The ftse 100 on new years eve 1999 was 6958.89.... today 7354.13 .... under 6%. edit. in 18 yrs.
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out of me. 
