ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814 
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 25, 2019 7:14:21 GMT
If you are withdrawing on any platform returns will decline, because you will eventually be left with only late payers and bad debt, with all the “good” loans having repaid.
This is even more the case if you sell. In this scenario you are immediately left with a portfolio of intermittent payers, late payers and defaults.
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 23, 2019 15:04:28 GMT
Agree entirely with the previous post. While shareholders have taken a hell of a lot of pain, and there is no sign of institutions buying the shares even at this bombed out level, the IPO did bring in £300m of cash- which should keep the business solvent a a few years. FS went bust today because the business ran out of money - not because the loans they were making were rubbish (which they were). What FS may do is hasten the demise of P2P - I expect the regulators to bring forward more controls (and even regulation- about time too). I suggest if you are concerned about whether a platform will survive you look at the financial strength of the company behind he platform, not just the track record of loans. And some I am with look blooming shaky! Fair old amount of demand yesterday. Shares up about 30%. I know cos I sold and missed out on about 20% of the rise damn!
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 23, 2019 11:01:25 GMT
The sales have slowed to an absolute crawl. My £3k is 6 days from the front of the queue (10/6/19). I'm not expecting to see it before Christmas now. Despite the gloss and spin in the latest published results, my guess is that retail lenders (as opposed to institutions) have dramatically reduced. Since our loans are sold to these retail lenders there's no-one to sell to. Any objective analysis of the risk v reward v liquidity would conclude that there are much better places to lend in all 3 categories. Fortunately for us there are bound to be many lenders who have had good returns for many years and no longer bother to monitor their accounts or do any research when investing more. What I can't understand is why institutions are still lending. The fact that they are implies they I'm completely wrong. I certainly hope I am, but all the other evidence says otherwise. Problem sale times will reduce in the new year once the June tsunami of sales (page 1) passes. August to October sales have dwindled. As for institutions, p2p is an effective diversified in a world of zero interest rates and a suspiciously long in the tooth bull market in equities.
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 21, 2019 17:13:20 GMT
Q3 ‘18 they were ramping ahead of IPO.
Q3 ‘19 they are being more prudent as they managed to get their £300M.
ZOPA also looks ex growth to me. This is now an industry looking at 10% to 20% growth pa for the mature players - still a bl00dy good growth rate!
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 21, 2019 16:33:56 GMT
Blimey!
Sometimes I wake up Grumpy.
And sometimes I let him sleep...
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 21, 2019 10:12:51 GMT
Adding institutional lenders is very important. Far cheaper to manage than 000s of fickle retail investors with little understanding of p2p risks. What surprised me is tha ytd growth is only 9% up on 2018 comparable. Either demand is softening and or lending criteria are being tightened. Quite encouraged as someone who sniffled a few at 101p and just sold. Oh blast! I sold at 112 and now 117.....
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 21, 2019 8:35:05 GMT
Adding institutional lenders is very important. Far cheaper to manage than 000s of fickle retail investors with little understanding of p2p risks.
What surprised me is tha ytd growth is only 9% up on 2018 comparable. Either demand is softening and or lending criteria are being tightened. Quite encouraged as someone who sniffled a few at 101p and just sold.
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 20, 2019 7:37:29 GMT
Yes, as sl75 explained, what I have left is bad debts and late paying loans which I don't anticipate ever becoming sell-able. They are all duds, I think I will get back 2-3% capital at the most over the original term of the remaining loans. Some of the loans are paying back One Pence per month. It will take well over a century to repay the capital with no added interest. I don't think they add any interest to the loans once there is a repayment plan in place but I don't know maybe they do and it will take infinity to pay back. I would be happy to pay 10p in the £ for a portfolio with a “decent” mix of defaults and lates, as a punt. It’s a shame you can’t sell and I can’t buy...
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Lending Works (LW)
The shield
Oct 19, 2019 8:07:54 GMT
Post by ashtondav on Oct 19, 2019 8:07:54 GMT
Surely some of the defaults are covered by “insurance” and have no claim on the PF?
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 18, 2019 17:53:14 GMT
Share price up ten percent today. Anybody know why? ‘Cos it’s cheap as chips. Virtually just valued at its cash holdings. Either it goes t1ts up or you double your money. i know I’ve done much better as a lender than a shareholder. That shows the benefit of p2p
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 18, 2019 15:29:43 GMT
Amazon went 106$ to 6$ 2000 to 2001.
Not saying FC is Amazon but “uninvestible” is bollox
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 17, 2019 7:40:02 GMT
No sign of FC’s weekly update on average sale times for the last week. It is usually published by now. “ *This data is updated weekly, Wednesday PM” Probably worth waiting at least today for the publication of data before hatching any conspiracy theories and any uptick in panic. Panic. PANIC! We’ve had 78 pages of panic...
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 16, 2019 11:04:39 GMT
No. They have pencilled in next year for profits, not this year.
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 15, 2019 7:35:51 GMT
Hmmm, so 35 working days. Frankly that is unacceptable and the reality is this is not a “6.5%” product with that degree of cash drag.
it is shameful that matching times have not been updated, when LW used to be quite open in their dialogue with lenders.
instead or the irrelevant tosh they email they ought to include, as Zopa does, “this weeks queue times”.
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Oct 15, 2019 7:13:49 GMT
I note the FC investment trust are buying back large amounts of their own shares, presumably from normal repayments, which will relieve future sales of loans. www.smecreditrealisation.com/documents/factsheetsThey are allowed to buy back up to 15% at present unless there is a vote to up it. They had £164m FC UK loans on 11/6/19 which are probably down to under £150m now after repayments. The question is, are FC now trying to accommodate upcoming sales from the investment trust. The IT is buying its shares. There is no impact on loans. The IT continues to wind down its book naturally, and as I understand it does not sell loans but merely books repayments.
|
|
