ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jan 21, 2019 11:44:57 GMT
Yep, after initially being attracted to the black box model and the ditching of the spivs and flippers I have now stopped any new investment and will appraise the situation in September. RS, LW and AC are now much better bets. I’m optimistically hoping for 5%ish now, but realise even that isn’t possible unless I stick around for a good few years.
The dumb money may well continue to flow to FC until the brown stuff hits the fan and we get the inevitable multiple Daily Mail sob stories?
And then, as Ultravox would say, Goodnight Vienna. Shame really FC was a good idea...
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 29, 2018 11:47:12 GMT
I assume 122k figure includes reinvestments, which have priority. I'm going to wait and keep an eye on posts here. I'll invest new money when I see reports indicating that the queue is not too long and more or less stable. I'm 22 days in - waiting since 30 Nov. Will post when it gets matched. My cash from the 30th of November is still waiting. I’ve now got about £7,000 queued up, but December is always slow in the loans business. January sizzles, though! Here’s hoping....
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 28, 2018 17:51:53 GMT
Rubbish company, FS. Best avoid.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 24, 2018 12:29:46 GMT
I assume the worse bad debt at RS is responsible for the PF stubbornly remaining at the lower end, or below, their target coverage rate. Not very compelling when we can’t be that far away from a recession seeing as the last one was 10 years ago. And I assume Zopa stopped safeguard because if your estimating is that bad, you have no clue as to what the SG level should be. Which all sounds pretty schoolboy Mickey Mouse to me...
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 23, 2018 14:44:34 GMT
Have just been looking at the analytics on Orca, especially bad debt vs estimated bad debt.
the performance is appalling, esp. Zopa, RS and LW. Is it really that difficult to estimate bad debt? In fact given some of these stats I can’t even see the point in ESTIMATING bad debt.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 20, 2018 10:36:26 GMT
Dont panic. It used to happen all the time at A/C. Err, this is A/C
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 18, 2018 8:22:12 GMT
Yes F/C was good until they changed there system then i got out as soon as i could. Lots of other investers left to.Im more than happy with my 10.88% interest in the MLA. Are you as happy with your losses on the I** loans? How much is that exactly? One thing’s for sure; you won’t get 10.88% over a five year cycle. It will be somewhat less, but admittedly probably better than FC...
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 17, 2018 9:10:48 GMT
December is a very slow month for lending. Probably the worst. January is the best month, so lick yer lips and get some money on the table
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 10, 2018 18:48:18 GMT
FS sold the items to a dealer. Could it be possible the dealer sells the items to the FS borrower who got our money with a little profit made from FS lenders?
?
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 10, 2018 16:31:52 GMT
Quality of borrower is irrelevant. Pricing the loan interest rate correctly is very relevant.
As long as LW is pricing its loans correctly to deliver 6.5% we're all hunky dory. But one thing is certain, unlike in the past 5 years in the next five years we will see a RECESSION - and then we will see defaults rise. Lets hope 6.5% is achievable over the market cycle. Personally i will be happy with 5.5% being achieved over the next five years.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 10, 2018 11:41:27 GMT
There’s only one major risk to p2p (apart from platform incompetency). That’s recession - when people and business default through unemployment and business failure. We get a recession every 10 to 12 years. The last one ended in 2009.
Guess what....
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 8, 2018 18:55:47 GMT
If it helps, the weighted avg. APRs quoted on the website are for retail investor funded loans only. The basic composition of a loan at an average APR of say 12% is something like this: Annualised lender return (net of losses) = 6.5% Annualised Shield contributions (default rate) = 2% (lifetime rate of 4. something, taken as a mix of upfront fee and interest spread) Acquisition fee (annualised equiv.) = 1% (payable to introducers where applicable etc) Lending Works margin (remainder) = 2.5% (taken as a mix of upfront fee and interest spread) Total = 12%I'd say this is a pretty fair spread given we need to cover all the costs involved in originating (data, marketing, underwriting, processing etc) and servicing (customer service, processing and distributing repayments, collections etc). As a proportion of the gross interest rate payable to lenders of 8.5% (assuming there was no Shield), I think any less than that could be fairly unsustainable. That's a reason I do Like LendingWorks, having Matthew around to answer the difficult questions Yes, the contrast with ZOPA and Ratesetter is disturbing and FC no longer sharing their loanbook. These companies used to engage with their punters on forums but now choose not do so. Why you would not engage, in an age of engagement, is baffling. Absolutely mind blowingly bonkers. It amounts to metaphorical spitting on your customers (possibly your best customers) and is a disgraceful way to behave. I will put more into LW - at least until i can get more on RS (sly old fox, eh?)
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 8, 2018 17:15:47 GMT
Yes, coverage is not good but we do have insurance as well. Speed of lending is also an issue.
its the possibility of losing capital that’s important especially when comparing with equity. I think in a bad recession you could lose 10% of your capital in LW type platforms and recover in 2 years. In a bad recession and crash in equities it could be 40%+ loss and recover in 8+ years.
i don’t consider a 10% loss recovered in two years a problem.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 6, 2018 15:46:40 GMT
One other thing. You would have to be VERY unlucky to lose as much as in dotcom and bitcoin.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 6, 2018 14:13:47 GMT
P2p Global is in my Hargreaves Lansdowne SIPP...
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