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Post by captainconfident on Apr 22, 2024 9:43:06 GMT
The problem faced by the West in this war has been that, despite having a many times larger defence industry than Russia, they were found wanting in the very area that such a war would require, basic artillery munitions. Russia sat on the enormous stockpile of former superpower The Soviet Union, while NATOs high tech shells were in limited supply. W estern defence companies have rapidly set up production lines to increase production but these would take eighteen months or more to come into full production. At the critical moment of shortage, internal US politics throttled supply to Ukraine while Europe could not produce or find sufficient stocks. Now the situation is that Ukraine has improvised its way through this darkest moment, and in six months the adjusted supply lines of Europe will be on stream. Meanwhile Russia nears the bottom of the pot of soviet leftovers and their current production will not be adequate to sustain their army in the field. The peace deal to end the war is probably 12 months away but its outline will largely be in Ukraine's favour because the boot, by this time, will be on the other foot. This is more optimistic than I feel and I think misses some points. Its not just that Europe came into this with minimal reserves and also severely reduced (suitable to peacetime) production capacity. Political will as also been lacking and only changed at glacial speed. A start on ramping up production facilities could have been made much sooner than it has. And even then, how much has it actually ramped up. The promise of a million shells by end of March (delivered, not necessarily even produced) was not backed up by action. Europe dithered insisting that funds were spend only with European manufacturers. Contracts were not signed, and not surprisingly manufacturers were reluctant to make big investment in expanding capacity in the absence of politicians actually putting money and signed contracts alongside to match their political grandstanding. Even the UK, acting on its own, managed to dither about contract placement. Even now, the best that BAE Systems says is that "its new manufacturing facility....will deliver an eight-fold increase in manufacturing capacity, by 2026." And as this is BAE Systems, is that early 2026 or Dec 31st 2026 (if you are lucky). I said on this thread a long time ago, that the idea that Ukraine must ultimately "beat" Russia because of the huge disparity in industrial capacity and capability of the west vs Russia, was not a solid argument. Russia was always going to be able to shift the entire country to a wartime economy. That was never going to happen in Europe or the US because it would not be politically viable to do so in order to support a war in "a far away land". I don't see anything that has happened that changes my view on that. It is all too frequently "just in time" or "too little too late" or "just enough but too late to do the job intended". That does not preclude a situation where ultimately Russia is so bogged down for a sufficiently protracted time that the Russian system implodes. Much as the Soviet Union ultimately did in trying to maintain very high %age levels of defence spending relative to a much more industrially productive west. But I'm not sure that the political will in the West has the staying power. Many fair points. One difference at play is that an autocracy can ramp up production straight away, while tens of separate democracies are slow to rev up. But that had to be set against the fact that Russia had ramped up an economy the size of Spain under sanctions restricting critical components, against the US and Europe combined plus Japan, Australia. So the timing of the entry of weapons and ammunition to the theatre is in favour of Russia. But once the other countries get their together, Russian defeat is inevitable. Co-ordinating democracies is a messy business but Putin has united them as never before. While Ukraine is suffering while the the giant wakes up, Russia has shown that with a current large advantage in weapons supply, it can make practically no significant progress on the battlefield. And this will slowly but inevitably go into reverse.
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 21, 2024 19:06:16 GMT
The other big Congress YES vote allows Biden to give Ukraine all the US frozen russian assets also ensuring China is paying attention. The Biden administration seems to have destroyed everything else they might as well destroy the Western Financial System as well - after they steal this money no one outside the west will trust the western banking system or want to deposit large sums there. If I didnt know better I would think Biden was working for the "axis of evil" to destroy the west. This is very bad news for the UK that relies on the City of London money laundering operation to maintain its unsustainable standard of living.... I must say, I was expecting you to take up some of the points I have been making as they are diametrically opposed to your own (Colonel) 's 'inevitable Russian victory' story. Regarding the point you make The Economist has this to say. The approach is an elegant one. Income earned on Russia’s foreign holdings can be seized in a manner that is both legal and practical. Many of the country’s bonds have already matured. Cash from redemption of bonds is held by the depository in which it currently sits until it is withdrawn, paying no interest to the owner as per the depository’s usual terms and conditions. Any interest earned thus belongs to the depository—unless, that is, the state decides to tax it at a rate close to 100%.
Next, as suggested by The Economist in February, would be to transfer the net present value of that income stream to Ukraine. Investing Russia’s cash holdings into five-year German bunds would yield €3.3bn a year, enough to service eu debt of about €116bn at the same maturity. The rest is financial plumbing: set up a G7-guaranteed fund that receives the depositories’ incomes on Russian cash, issue that fund’s debt to the markets and send the proceeds in bulk to Ukraine.
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 21, 2024 16:17:45 GMT
Russia has no plan but to keeping attacking. But their gains while Ukraine was at its weakest have been negligible. This is because of three factors, that defence is seismically less costly than attack, that tanks gave been ineffective and that military build -up of forces for attack has been impossible due to observation and long range precision weapons.
None of that is going to change but the Russians have kept up the pretence of success by cheering whatever field has been captured each day (without mention of the cost). Once even that becomes impossible, there is no daily capture of territory to announce week after week and yet the only plan is to keep attacking, the rot sets in. The result will either be a peace conference where a DMZ is agreed or collapse of the Russian regime and return of all Ukrainian territories.
Can it go any other way? The problem is there is no key to unlocking the Ukranian defences, breaking through and then rolling them up and storming to Kyiv. Unless a 'miracle weapon' was to show up. If Russia had a viable plan to break through, we would have seen it by now. They have nothing but superior manpower but that counts for nothing when you have to leave your foxhole and run through the enemy minefield towards their machine guns. Maybe a few of you get there but in the meantime they pulled back to the next prepared position and you gave to do it again tomorrow until someone says stop. Eventually they shoot their officers and refuse to continue.
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 21, 2024 11:09:05 GMT
The problem faced by the West in this war has been that, despite having a many times larger defence industry than Russia, they were found wanting in the very area that such a war would require, basic artillery munitions. Russia sat on the enormous stockpile of former superpower The Soviet Union, while NATOs high tech shells were in limited supply. Western defence companies have rapidly set up production lines to increase production but these would take eighteen months or more to come into full production. At the critical moment of shortage, internal US politics throttled supply to Ukraine while Europe could not produce or find sufficient stocks.
Now the situation is that Ukraine has improvised its way through this darkest moment, and in six months the adjusted supply lines of Europe will be on stream. Meanwhile Russia nears the bottom of the pot of soviet leftovers and their current production will not be adequate to sustain their army in the field. The peace deal to end the war is probably 12 months away but its outline will largely be in Ukraine's favour because the boot, by this time, will be on the other foot.
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 20, 2024 13:52:51 GMT
Interesting documentary from Deutsche Welle about indoctrination of children in Russia. It suggests that the West will face a generation of anti- Western trained killers. First 15 mins is best, the rest is not indispensible. www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaDxSo7oVuE&t=620s
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 19, 2024 15:06:45 GMT
Police have obviously got all crime including burglary and violent crime fully under control so they are devoting time to decide if filming in a public place might be a crime in some circumstances. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-68826423Wearing a loud shirt in a built up area.
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 19, 2024 10:57:15 GMT
Media reports oil price rises due to tit-for-tat actions between enemies, that's the real goal I suppose. Ooh you terrible cynic!
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 18, 2024 12:04:38 GMT
They are far too old. The most best and most popularly appealing candidate to replace the King is Jürgen Klopp. I suppose at least it would be keeping the German lineage. Not sure there is really much point changing the status quo in truth, they are mostly harmless and it really does seem a somewhat boring job (Pretty impressive perks aside) Perhaps he could be crowned king on the battlefield. That’s how we used to change the monarchical house in the past. I’m thinking that with his tactical skills and career of planning attacks, Klopp could quickly organise an effective force that could rout whatever beefeaters are defending the House of Windsor. I’m sure he’d pick up popular support as he moved south, like the ‘civil war reenactment sponsored by Schnorr Schnapps’ episode of South Park. (The Confederate side drank a lot of the schnapps, refused to lose and started to March on Washington).
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 18, 2024 9:15:41 GMT
I think the age of these individuals would be a bonus to people who consider themselves "royalists" - they do not want to have to bow and curtsy to some "young upstart" Three of the four are massively unlikely to see the general election after the imminent one. They are far too old. The most best and most popularly appealing candidate to replace the King is Jürgen Klopp.
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 16, 2024 19:32:51 GMT
Some bumps in the road, but Archover is managing this wind down without larding the process with extra charges like some other platforms I could mention.
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 16, 2024 19:22:10 GMT
No, it fits in here too. What I wrote was..
My neighbour's child's secondary school class is going on a school trip next month. They are flying to Morocco. I was thinking about this. If I was a Morroccan. You'd see the parties of rich tourists flying in, and plane loads of school children doing something you could never have afforded for your kids, flying in and going, oh climate change, isn't it awful. Your country's a bit hot! Lovely to see you, doubt you'll be very comfortable here in ten years time, won't be coming back and don't you try coming over to our country. Then flying off again.
Try thinking of it the other way around, if Britain was the poor hot country and it was Moroccan tourists who flew in and out of Heathrow coming to look at you and your hut. Look at their quaint clothes. Will they do a dance for us? Just musing.
Western countries are split down the middle with (under) half genuinely worried about the climate and prepared to try to do something, and probably a majority who do not want their lifestyle altered in any way and damn the future. Unfortunately the dead weight of people who don't care is populism, is my country first anti-globalism, is human beings being unable to co-operate to avert catastrophe. Or see them elect Trump and we actually go backwards. That is the moment I move to New Zealand and throw my mobile phone in the sea.
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 16, 2024 19:05:30 GMT
Its the times that have changed, not the people. There were always Dunning-Kruger idiots who had done their own research, difference now being they can find each other on the internet. Back in the 1990s there was no imminent collapse into authoritarianism in the large democracies like India, USA, and no obvious signs of exponential climate change. The Iraq war was the beginning of the slide when you could see Western leaders acting on what you knew that they knew were lies. Then it stabilised a bit until 2016. Now, I'm quite with mogish that its all getting a bit much. When the slaughter began to go on and on in Gaza, for the first time in my life I began to opt out of the news. Nothing is going right and it will get worse, if only due to the politics of climate change. I've written another paragraph but ill paste it into the climate change thread.
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 15, 2024 15:18:36 GMT
I've realised the error if my ways and have stopped reading the MSM. Those Ukrainian Nazis will pay dearly for this attack on Israel.
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 14, 2024 19:12:35 GMT
The reason the US do not want to get involved might be to do with these new hypersonic missiles Iran has developed been given. They can probably sink aircraft carriers as well as hit heavily defended air bases. The Colonel also suggested that these missiles are probably using Chinese or Russian satellites for targeting since they seem to leave the atmosphere before re-entering at hypersonic speeds. The colonel may well have access to mystical sources of information unknown to normal people but he clearly didn't Google "hypersonic missiles atmosphere" before opining on them leaving the atmosphere and using satellite targeting. I did though. www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-physics-and-hype-of-hypersonic-weapons/
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 12, 2024 20:04:05 GMT
I had a quick look for a Trump Bible for michaelc , and they are mainly available to preorder on Ebay.com. Or dot con as I accidentally just wrote. The seller of the Bible you might eventually get had more negative feedback than usual, lets take a look. www.ebay.com/fdbk/feedback_profile/jb_collectables_store?commentType=NEGATIVE&user_context=BUYEROf amusement here is the third negative feedback halfway down the page, Ripped off the dybbuk boxWhat's this, you ask?. Well, click the number of the item at the end of the negative comment and look at the item. Scroll down a bit you can see what this seller bought for 65 bucks. Even more amazing, in the positive feedback, countless satisfied purchasers of such wonders.
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