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Post by captainconfident on Jun 7, 2019 13:45:32 GMT
Peterborough by-election will be an interesting test of the first past the post system. It's a Labour seat with Tories as runners up. You'd expect a Brexit Party win as there were 61% leave voters in 2016. And the Greens are standing to knacker the LD's chances. But the Brexit and Conservatives will also split their potential vote. So this is impossible to predict, and Labour might retain this seat as nobody is competing with their "I'm in a muddle" position. What's also likely with wonderful FPTP is that the winning party gets less than 25% of the people who bother to vote. Crazy. I'm back! And I claim to have predicted the FPTP result at Peterborough nearly correctly! Well, they got an MP supported by 30% of the people. A GE is just as likely to be returning MPs not wanted by 2/3rds of their constituents. Not good enough. Bring on AV at least (The Tories will be pleading while failing to see the irony), as they meet with their other 70 MPs.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jun 7, 2019 13:47:02 GMT
Labour have such a nice class of MPs.
BBC article here "... Labour MP Margaret Hodge said she had "raised concerns" about Ms Forbes' comments with the party's leadership, while fellow Labour MP Jess Phillips said Ms Forbes had "endorsed and ignored anti-Semitic things".
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jun 7, 2019 14:09:40 GMT
Peterborough by-election will be an interesting test of the first past the post system. It's a Labour seat with Tories as runners up. You'd expect a Brexit Party win as there were 61% leave voters in 2016. And the Greens are standing to knacker the LD's chances. But the Brexit and Conservatives will also split their potential vote. So this is impossible to predict, and Labour might retain this seat as nobody is competing with their "I'm in a muddle" position. What's also likely with wonderful FPTP is that the winning party gets less than 25% of the people who bother to vote. Crazy. I'm back! And I claim to have predicted the FPTP result at Peterborough nearly correctly! Well, they got an MP supported by 30% of the people. A GE is just as likely to be returning MPs not wanted by 2/3rds of their constituents. Not good enough. Bring on AV at least (The Tories will be pleading while failing to see the irony), as they meet with their other 70 MPs. Good call!
Interesting to see that the Brexit/Tory share of the vote is up 4%, whilst Labour/LibDem/Green/etc. is down by 4%
AV - simply a different way to suppress minority parties.
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JamesFrance
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Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Jun 7, 2019 14:15:23 GMT
With all the claims after the Euro election that the remainers were in the majority, it is interesting that here the leave parties had double the votes of the remainers but the fence sitter actually won. Quite inconclusive apart from being obvious that the Conservatives would have to win back their ex voters to have any chance at the next general election.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jun 7, 2019 14:51:39 GMT
And the poor luvie that brought the case is complaining about how much he has lost on top of the £300k that he conned out of gulible crowd funders.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jun 7, 2019 15:01:13 GMT
And the poor luvie that brought the case is complaining about how much he has lost on top of the £300k that he conned out of gulible crowd funders.
"Speaking outside court, Mr Ball said he had spent more than the £300,000 he raised on the case, leaving him in "massive debt".
He added: "We have to wait and see the reasons for [the judges'] decision. When we have those reasons I'm going to make a decision as to what to do next.
---
The phrase "if you find yourself in a hole, stop digging" comes to mind
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jun 7, 2019 15:07:04 GMT
Betting on election results is quite fun I find although no doubt there will be some calling for a ban on such "dangerous" activity to protect people like me from ourselves. At least more regulation..... No betting more than 1% of ones monthly income! No betting when drunk! No drinking at all actually....
Anyway,.... the odds were for quite a while around 5/1 for Labour. My twitter feed from folk at the count, then started to mutter about people in Labour being increasingly happy at the count. The odds remained at around 5/1. I thought surely it has to be at least 50:50 so why not bung a bit into a 5/1 with perhaps 50% chance? The "odds" then started doing all sorts of crazy things - I'm sure there was much more opportunity than I took. The downside? Well, I didn't of course want who I'd bet on to win !
Far more fun and dare I say profitable than betting on the horses....!
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Jun 7, 2019 16:16:52 GMT
D'you reckon he's been touched by God? I'm sure the BBC reckoned they had him cold.(Boris, that is..)
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Post by captainconfident on Jun 12, 2019 10:49:42 GMT
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Jun 12, 2019 17:49:10 GMT
I'm buying even more hard currency (or investments denominated in hard currency) now. Parliament has voted to deny itself the capacity to block a no-deal Brexit, and BJ and co have or will have painted themselves into the inevitability of no-deal Brexit or broke scenario. A no deal Brexit will hammer Sterling (even more than it already has been). Sterling more likely overpriced at the moment in my evaluation. I might buy some when it reaches parity with the Euro and then the Dollar. EDIT: of course I don't need to buy any as I am bleeding well paid in the worthless pieces of paper every month. I just need to stop converting it to real money at some point once it has some notion of value reattached to it.
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Post by captainconfident on Jun 12, 2019 18:09:53 GMT
I agree entirely, but am betting entirely the other way to you. I suppose I might be in denial. It's so obvious to me that leaving the EU would be an economic disaster, such that I couldn't believe that anybody in their right mind would actually go through with it. I correspond with people on this board who do believe it, and I remain polite and nice as one would with anyone you met who you think might be suffering from some kind of affliction.
It's the same kind of wonderland that the candidates in Tory Game of Thrones are proposing. First we leave the EU, then it's tax cuts and increased spending on stuff. As if leaving the EU won't see a collapse of the public finances and rising unemployment coupled with soaring inflation and a collapse of sterling.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Jun 12, 2019 18:27:21 GMT
I agree entirely, but am betting entirely the other way to you. I suppose I might be in denial. It's so obvious to me that leaving the EU would be an economic disaster, such that I couldn't believe that anybody in their right mind would actually go through with it. I correspond with people on this board who do believe it, and I remain polite and nice as one would with anyone you met who you think might be suffering from some kind of affliction. It's the same kind of wonderland that the candidates in Tory Game of Thrones are proposing. First we leave the EU, then it's tax cuts and increased spending on stuff. As if leaving the EU won't see a collapse of the public finances and rising unemployment coupled with soaring inflation and a collapse of sterling. I suppose since I am already "in bed" heavily with Sterling (salary, housing, pension pot), I'm hedging by getting as much non-Sterling as possible to mitigate the downside. If Sterling rises I'm probably in a better position even with the hedges going the wrong way. And I'm definitely not brave enough to go "all in" the other way! (I do maintain some FTSE-100/250/All-share exposure just in case it catches up with the ROW, and it is yielding over 5% even while moving sideways)
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jul 3, 2019 10:14:04 GMT
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jul 3, 2019 22:54:36 GMT
Just Life if we all kept our promises there would be no divorce as Uk currently has 43% rate then probably more than 60% of population don't keep their promises
as not just married people lie. Why should we expect anything more from anyone in public office they are human after all..
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Post by charlata on Jul 4, 2019 8:26:54 GMT
Just Life if we all kept our promises there would be no divorce as Uk currently has 43% rate then probably more than 60% of population don't keep their promises
as not just married people lie. Why should we expect anything more from anyone in public office they are human after all..
A very good analogy. Do you think the leave voters will divorce the leave politicians any time soon? I do hope so.
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