IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Aug 10, 2019 11:35:01 GMT
The situation could become very dangerous very quickly and I don't mean economic recession that might occur according to project fear and many of those in the establishment with entrenched positions determined to ignore the results of a free and fair vote. I mean something far worse than that. I mentioned in a similar thread at the start of the year that a coup in this country was absolutely possible. It was seen as so alien that I was accused of being ridiculous, reckless and even trolling. p2pindependentforum.com/post/308348/threadYet now, our mainstream media are actively mentioning the word: e.g. www.thesun.co.uk/news/9677292/labours-john-mcdonnell-threatens-tell-queen-were-taking-over-boris-johnson-loses-no-confidence/Meanwhile, other mainstream media are conditioning us to think that ignoring a free and fair vote is acceptable . e.g.: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/07/stop-catastrophe-no-deal-brexit-revoke-article-50Those ardent remainers who are concerned for their own short term economic wellbeing need to consider this: If you continue to attack democracy and you win, then we will not be a democractic nation anymore and yes that means we will join the ranks of other countries that are ruled without regard to democratic mandate. (Most of them aren't doing very well by the way apart from those that have vast natural resources such as oil). If you think that is so far fetched please consider this as an example. What if there is a confidence vote that Johnson loses. He stays in No10 and calls an election for Nov 1. Then Corbyn rocks up at the Palace in his taxi with 100,000 supporters already there clamoring to get over the gates. What then? Its not a joke. Its much more serious than whether or not we leave the eu. We've had peace in this country for so long people take it for granted. It is at grave risk right now. Well, breaking electoral law during a vote isn't exactly fair. And saying one thing (we will only leave once we have a deal) and doing another (you knew you were voting for no deal) is I suppose par for the course in politics. But notwithstandng that, BJ's plan to ignore both the constitutional precedent (no major policies when an election has been called) and the intent of the Fixed Term Parliament Act (14 days for another government to be formed) is very problematic. Once that happens, we are going to need some quick action in the short term and most likely a proper written constitution in the longer term. I think Cummings knows what he is doing very well and would welcome a constitutional crisis. I think it would come at quite an inconvenient time, given that all hands would need to be on deck at that moment (food, medicines, etc)
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 10, 2019 11:54:52 GMT
Yes it is
To suggest that you know what is going to happen based on the deranged rantings of a left wing loony (somebody so extreme that even the odious Ken Livingstone sacked him) is pie in the sky. Hopefully if 100,000 left wingers turn up at Buck house the SAS will be ready to meet them.
There are plenty of MP's who have spent the last 12 months using every legal means possible (with assistance from the speaker) to stop us leaving. They can't complain if Boris now uses equally shady (but legal) means to force throgh Brexit.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Aug 10, 2019 12:35:28 GMT
Clear as mud. You must be listening to the BBC again. Shall we kick off another bout of obstructionist Remainer angst or can't you just get over it? We can all pull out examples to boost our arguments but the bottom line is that you have been instructed by democratic means to leave and now we will. Personally speaking my angst is no longer about Brexit (I'm resigned to it) or democracy (that's now been well broken) - my angst is that when we get a no deal Brexit not a single Brexiteer will take responsibility for what ensues and instead will blame everyone else including remainers, the EU, non-believers, deep state, elites, etc etc. Just own it when it happens. There's a whole crowd of you who are going to grizzle on about that for the rest of their ruined lives .Grow up and try harder.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Aug 10, 2019 13:30:33 GMT
Personally speaking my angst is no longer about Brexit (I'm resigned to it) or democracy (that's now been well broken) - my angst is that when we get a no deal Brexit not a single Brexiteer will take responsibility for what ensues and instead will blame everyone else including remainers, the EU, non-believers, deep state, elites, etc etc. Just own it when it happens. There's a whole crowd of you who are going to grizzle on about that for the rest of their ruined lives .Grow up and try harder. thanks for the grown up advice
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 10, 2019 20:58:28 GMT
my angst is that when we get a no deal Brexit not a single Brexiteer will take responsibility for what ensues Undoubtedly true, but not just applicble to politicians.
Many years ago I remember Seve Ballesteros eyeing up an approach shot and asking the caddy for a 7 iron. The caddy said you won't reach with a 7 you need a 6 iron. After a lengthly argument Ballesteros used the 7 iron and ended up 15 yards short of the green. He turned to the caddy and said that was your fault, you put doubt into my mind.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 10, 2019 21:04:47 GMT
But notwithstandng that, BJ's plan to ignore both the constitutional precedent (no major policies when an election has been called) and the intent of the Fixed Term Parliament Act (14 days for another government to be formed) is very problematic. Remainers (with the support of the speaker) have already driven a coach and horses through constitutional precedence, by allowing MP's to take control of parlimentary business.
What's good for the goose .......
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 11, 2019 0:30:46 GMT
Hopefully if 100,000 left wingers turn up at Buck house the SAS will be ready to meet them. Thankfully one of the things they look for in "Selection" is the ability to think for yourself.
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jaswells
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Post by jaswells on Aug 11, 2019 2:21:45 GMT
my angst is that when we get a no deal Brexit not a single Brexiteer will take responsibility for what ensues Undoubtedly true, but not just applicble to politicians.
Many years ago I remember Seve Ballesteros eyeing up an approach shot and asking the caddy for a 7 iron. The caddy said you won't reach with a 7 you need a 6 iron. After a lengthly argument Ballesteros used the 7 iron and ended up 15 yards short of the green. He turned to the caddy and said that was your fault, you put doubt into my mind.
However, such is the complexity of behavioral economics that up to a point Seve is is possibly correct. IMO,there is no doubt that the most significant cause for a Brexit recession is the negative spin delivered by remainers. The need for mankind to follow a group narrative is too strong to resist. Hence the term depression which by no coincidence is as much a state of mind as the economic reality. Brexit recession is assured but if and only if the MSM get behind a narrative of recovery and opportunity will the recovery begin.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 11, 2019 2:41:33 GMT
There is no doubt that the most significant cause for a Brexit recession is the negative spin delivered by remainers. Care to supply any supporting evidence for that assertion?
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jaswells
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Post by jaswells on Aug 11, 2019 2:56:26 GMT
There is no doubt that the most significant cause for a Brexit recession is the negative spin delivered by remainers. Care to supply any supporting evidence for that assertion? Edited, IMO. The forefront of Economic research is only now coming to grips with some of the more complex aspects of human psychology when trying to make sense of macro models. Traditional Economics has been heavily criticized, rightly so, for its inability to deal with often irrational response by economic agents. IMO prominent in this is the way individuals follow a narrative, which may make absolutely no sense to their personal well being. A good example of this is the health and fitness revolution which has seemingly resulted in huge amounts of resources diverted into supplements and health foods/ ingredients, most of which provide no real tangible benefits to ones well being. In business decision makers will follow the Brexit gloom and delay recruiting or investment, people will put off house purchases etc. This emotional response to negative reporting is the main reason for Economic stagnation, not necessarily any particular policies relating to Brexit itself.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Aug 11, 2019 8:09:35 GMT
Care to supply any supporting evidence for that assertion? Edited, IMO. The forefront of Economic research is only now coming to grips with some of the more complex aspects of human psychology when trying to make sense of macro models. Traditional Economics has been heavily criticized, rightly so, for its inability to deal with often irrational response by economic agents. IMO prominent in this is the way individuals follow a narrative, which may make absolutely no sense to their personal well being. A good example of this is the health and fitness revolution which has seemingly resulted in huge amounts of resources diverted into supplements and health foods/ ingredients, most of which provide no real tangible benefits to ones well being. In business decision makers will follow the Brexit gloom and delay recruiting or investment, people will put off house purchases etc. This emotional response to negative reporting is the main reason for Economic stagnation, not necessarily any particular policies relating to Brexit itself. Yes, exactly. For example, if those sheep farmers who become subject to a 40% tariff for their EU exports could just pull themselves together and drop their negative groupthink attitude, then I'm sure their continental customers will be more than happy to pay their price, even if it is substantially more than their EU rivals. I mean, I'm assuming that lorries to deliver the meat can get across the border. Which they will of course, providing the freight companies also don't get infected by that loser attitude as well, urging them not to send their lorries without adequate licensing into a multi-day tailback to get to the border. Naturally, the thousands of trained border custom agents we're missing seriously need to adopt a 'Positive Mental Attitude' too and thereby ensure they complete their own recruitment and specialised training in about a quarter of the time as usual. So, you see, the inevitable recession that would occur is really just all in the mind. Facts are just totally overrated IMHO. Amirite? edit...look, yes, negative attitudes can become a self-fulfilling prophecy as business uncertainty breeds business uncertainty. But that's somewhat by the by when faced with the very actual and real logistical and fiscal 'challenges' that doing something as monumentally ill conceived as No-Deal brexit would bring.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Aug 11, 2019 8:20:41 GMT
Only 12% -15% of our GDP go to EU exports. This is portrayed as being far more significant than it is. We will all see very very soon.
We will exit before November and have a Majority Tory government by December.
If the Brexit party brings out a manifesto made up of the best policies of all the other parties and try’s to be a new centralist party it might even become the official opposition.
There will be too many wound licking remaining parties for any to get a significant number of MPs to cause any problems.
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jaswells
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Post by jaswells on Aug 11, 2019 8:46:02 GMT
Edited, IMO. The forefront of Economic research is only now coming to grips with some of the more complex aspects of human psychology when trying to make sense of macro models. Traditional Economics has been heavily criticized, rightly so, for its inability to deal with often irrational response by economic agents. IMO prominent in this is the way individuals follow a narrative, which may make absolutely no sense to their personal well being. A good example of this is the health and fitness revolution which has seemingly resulted in huge amounts of resources diverted into supplements and health foods/ ingredients, most of which provide no real tangible benefits to ones well being. In business decision makers will follow the Brexit gloom and delay recruiting or investment, people will put off house purchases etc. This emotional response to negative reporting is the main reason for Economic stagnation, not necessarily any particular policies relating to Brexit itself. Yes, exactly. For example, if those sheep farmers who become subject to a 40% tariff for their EU exports could just pull themselves together and drop their negative groupthink attitude, then I'm sure their continental customers will be more than happy to pay their price, even if it is substantially more than their EU rivals. I mean, I'm assuming that lorries to deliver the meat can get across the border. Which they will of course, providing the freight companies also don't get infected by that loser attitude as well, urging them not to send their lorries without adequate licensing into a multi-day tailback to get to the border. Naturally, the thousands of trained border custom agents we're missing seriously need to adopt a 'Positive Mental Attitude' too and thereby ensure they complete their own recruitment and specialised training in about a quarter of the time as usual. So, you see, the inevitable recession that would occur is really just all in the mind. Facts are just totally overrated IMHO. Amirite? edit...look, yes, negative attitudes can become a self-fulfilling prophecy as business uncertainty breeds business uncertainty. But that's somewhat by the by when faced with the very actual and real logistical and fiscal 'challenges' that doing something as monumentally ill conceived as No-Deal brexit would bring. I dont think anyone is disputing that there will be winners and losers and short term difficulties will certainly exist in pockets of the economy that have to deal with transition. However, there are winners and losers all the time in an economy, just look at the collapse of the high street retailers. Does that mean we should prevent online commerce?unlikely. My point is that the economy of UK, EU etc will still largely consist of the same number of people demanding the same number of goods and services, only a completely irrational sense of demise and unsolvable problems would make things materially worse off. This is the psychology some parts of the MSM may foster and IMO could be the prime cause for Economic decline.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Aug 11, 2019 9:21:51 GMT
I dont think anyone is disputing that there will be winners and losers and short term difficulties will certainly exist in pockets of the economy that have to deal with transition. However, there are winners and losers all the time in an economy, just look at the collapse of the high street retailers. Does that mean we should prevent online commerce?unlikely. My point is that the economy of UK, EU etc will still largely consist of the same number of people demanding the same number of goods and services, only a completely irrational sense of demise and unsolvable problems would make things materially worse off. This is the psychology some parts of the MSM may foster and IMO could be the prime cause for Economic decline. The winners and losers generated from online commerce cannot be compared in any way with the winners and losers from a No-deal Brexit. The former is the product of technology paradigms progressing from stage to stage resulting in inevitable individual casualties e.g. We all can benefit from online streaming rather than going to a video rental shop. Overall, the benefit of this progression for society as a whole heavily outweighs those few affected directly by the demise of Blockbuster Video. The corresponding 'winners and losers' from No-Deal Brexit would be akin to having a successful UK online video streaming platform suddenly put at a 40% tariff disadvantage to its EU rivals and going out of business or needing to be heavily subsidised to survive. Then that repeated across various industries and applied equally to all firms within them. In short you are attempting to make equivalent the impact of technological progress with a highly disadvantageous tariff regime introduced at short notice. They're just nothing like each other at all. Re: demand, as well as the 'irrational sense of demise', I would argue that a sharp increase in price for essential and non-essential imported products due to the weakness of our currency is going to dampen demand in a very rational way. Despite what you say, when people have less money (in real terms) they will generally spend less (less demand) on various products and services, in an attempt to keep afloat. Would you disagree with that? (on this bombshell, I'm going kayaking..)
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 11, 2019 9:47:51 GMT
We will exit before November and have a Majority Tory government by December. Steady on old boy, me thinks you have been out in the sun too long.
Having seen the tatics in the recent by-election (Plaid Cymru didn't put up a candidate, but instead supported the Lib Dems), I wonder what part tatical voting would play in a GE. I could well understand the Brexit party agreeing not to stand where the tory candidate was expected to do well (even campaign on their behalf), but I don't think a reciprocal deal would go down well with many at Tory HQ.
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