travolta
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Post by travolta on Sept 17, 2019 12:34:11 GMT
Interesting fact is that Churchill considered that Britain's post war future was only sustainable within the context of a european community and made this point quite a few times. However he was a completely useless policy wonk despite being a gifted orator. You only have to read biographies to see how everyone made strenuous efforts to keep him out of the loop . Montgomery was one of his crass balls ups.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Sept 17, 2019 12:52:14 GMT
A better bet where you won't lose your whole stake is on FX rates. I (my company) has a 6 figure position in the pound, bought with Euros at 1.09. I'm not impartial when it comes to No Deal Brexits. Interested to know if any of you Brexiteers have similarly bet that if you get your wish, the pound goes down the s**tter? Interesting. I assume you're betting long on the £ then? Is there a time limit on that or is it open-ended?
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Post by captainconfident on Sept 17, 2019 13:17:01 GMT
A better bet where you won't lose your whole stake is on FX rates. I (my company) has a 6 figure position in the pound, bought with Euros at 1.09. I'm not impartial when it comes to No Deal Brexits. Interested to know if any of you Brexiteers have similarly bet that if you get your wish, the pound goes down the s**tter? Interesting. I assume you're betting long on the £ then? Is there a time limit on that or is it open-ended? It's pretty much open ended. If the pound crashes due and looks like staying crashed, I'll just have to learn to love my devalued pounds. But if all goes well, I'd crack from sheer joy and cash in at 1.2 or above. You see why I'm such a gung-ho remainer? I'm discounting the Sunny Uplands of Singapore, or whatever Dominic Raab believes in.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Sept 17, 2019 13:59:26 GMT
A better bet where you won't lose your whole stake is on FX rates. I (my company) has a 6 figure position in the pound, bought with Euros at 1.09. I'm not impartial when it comes to No Deal Brexits. Interested to know if any of you Brexiteers have similarly bet that if you get your wish, the pound goes down the s**tter? At least you wear your heart on your sleeve. Kudos for being honest about that.
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Post by bracknellboy on Sept 17, 2019 14:08:40 GMT
Interesting. I assume you're betting long on the £ then? Is there a time limit on that or is it open-ended? It's pretty much open ended. If the pound crashes due and looks like staying crashed, I'll just have to learn to love my devalued pounds. But if all goes well, I'd crack from sheer joy and cash in at 1.2 or above. You see why I'm such a gung-ho remainer? I'm discounting the Sunny Uplands of Singapore, or whatever Dominic Raab believes in. I'm guessing that Dominic Raab hadn't quite understood how reliant the Sunny Uplands will be on Singapore. To plagarise and butcher.
(Although clearly that other ardent supporter of Brexit James Dyson does, since he has re-headquarted the company and setup the auto manufacturing facility there, all since the masses took heed of his pronouncements and voted to cut us adrift from the Overcast Downlands of Europe)
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Post by dan1 on Sept 17, 2019 14:13:27 GMT
OK dan1 , but if this was a foreseen possible outcome, the commons with Gvt maj of -42 will not pass a WA. Therefore letter has to be sent = no no deal. I don't share your confidence captainconfident I could envisage a situation where Johnson brings an "improved" deal back to the house, one that's acceptable to the DUP. A deal with the hard line brexiteers (think Francois, Steve Baker & co) plus the support of the 18(?) pro-Brexit Labour MPs and perhaps the odd independent could see it voted through. You have to admire the irony that Johnson's best chance of no-deal is to agree a better deal with the EU
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Post by captainconfident on Sept 17, 2019 14:27:30 GMT
A better bet where you won't lose your whole stake is on FX rates. I (my company) has a 6 figure position in the pound, bought with Euros at 1.09. I'm not impartial when it comes to No Deal Brexits. Interested to know if any of you Brexiteers have similarly bet that if you get your wish, the pound goes down the s**tter? At least you wear your heart on your sleeve. Kudos for being honest about that. That's big hearted of you to say. I spotted that there was a chance of to gamble as a pay-off for studying this issue so closely. But it's not my base Remainer motivation! Although thinking about it, being involved in intra EU trade must have made me almost unthinkingly remainery. That seems to be the no.1 Remainer Reason. As a Leaver, michaelc, you have more empathy for me than I have for you! blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/05/04/leavers-have-a-better-understanding-of-remainers-motivations-than-vice-versa/
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Post by captainconfident on Sept 17, 2019 14:35:09 GMT
OK dan1 , but if this was a foreseen possible outcome, the commons with Gvt maj of -42 will not pass a WA. Therefore letter has to be sent = no no deal. I don't share your confidence captainconfident I could envisage a situation where Johnson brings an "improved" deal back to the house, one that's acceptable to the DUP. A deal with the hard line brexiteers (think Francois, Steve Baker & co) plus the support of the 18(?) pro-Brexit Labour MPs and perhaps the odd independent could see it voted through. You have to admire the irony that Johnson's best chance of no-deal is to agree a better deal with the EU Well, ahem, you might be right. Based on your info in this thread, the ERG would vote for any deal, even remaining, if they thought that by doing so a loophole in the law would actually cause a no-deal Brexit on the 31st. While the 22+ Tory rebels who support a deal would vote against a deal because they see the loophole. So those who don't want it would vote for it, and those who do want it would vote against. But those who don't want it or a No Deal on the 31st would also vote against it. So the outcome's obvious, er it's hmmmm Let me read that loophole theory again....
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Post by dan1 on Sept 17, 2019 14:37:51 GMT
OK dan1 , but if this was a foreseen possible outcome, the commons with Gvt maj of -42 will not pass a WA. Therefore letter has to be sent = no no deal. True, but there's also just the 'unknown unknown' factors i.e. what 4D chess move will Mr. Cummings come up with next?The fact that a clearly stated position of the Government (31st Oct come what may) is considered a long shot by those willing to bet actual money on it is an astonishing state of affairs isn't it. I find the Cummings backstory to Johnson's leadership more fascinating than Johnson himself. When Gove was at the Education dept in Cameron's coalition govt Cummings was his spad. Irrespective of whether you agree with his policies the fact is that Gove pushed through several reforms with Cummings' help. But in the process Gove became very unpopular and was subsequently demoted to Chief Whip. Johnson's premiership can't go the same way if he wants to achieve a decent majority to implement his "liberal Conservative" policies (no, I don't believe it either!), he has to reach out to those who voted remain. I can understand the current division politics in an attempt to achieve Brexit but he can't fight an election campaign on the same ticket. How long will Cummings stick around for (he has a toddler I understand), and who will lead Johnson's election campaign, him or Lynton Crosby, the man who ran his successful Mayoral election campaigns?
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Post by captainconfident on Sept 17, 2019 15:01:51 GMT
£ just went over 1.13. Go Pound!
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 17, 2019 16:45:07 GMT
£ just went over 1.13. Go Pound! Someone went long on the pound... EDIT: now read earlier posts confirming exatly this! I of course am short as a hedge, having exchanged pounds into Euros, Dollars, Yen, Francs and Aussie Dollars at rates that are (on average) already uncomfortably low. Since the majority my future earnings and income are in pounds, I still "win" if the pound recovers, just a bit less of a win than it might otherwise be, and the hard currency means I lose just a bit less if the pound falls further. That's how I am selling it to myself anyway. I should also say that using Revolut over several months means that I have incurred virtually no forex fees for an upper 5 figures amount.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Sept 17, 2019 17:41:24 GMT
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Post by captainconfident on Sept 17, 2019 18:42:02 GMT
adrianc mate, we're supposed to be showing more empathy. blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/05/04/leavers-have-a-better-understanding-of-remainers-motivations-than-vice-versa/ Simply blasting the others with economic doom messages and cartoons like this probably isn't going to cut through. Try a bit more mindfulness. Ha ha! You snowflake! Ya can't win, can ya.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Sept 17, 2019 21:55:52 GMT
adrianc mate, we're supposed to be showing more empathy. blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/05/04/leavers-have-a-better-understanding-of-remainers-motivations-than-vice-versa/ Simply blasting the others with economic doom messages and cartoons like this probably isn't going to cut through. Try a bit more mindfulness. Ha ha! You snowflake! Ya can't win, can ya. I thought it was a documentary of this thread, tbh.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Sept 18, 2019 20:23:23 GMT
Looking at the No-Deal Brexit possibility, the Benn Act was confirmed by a last year retired Supreme Court Judge on Newsnight yesterday to be expertly drafted, and he confirmed what I said earlier, that even if it was not, if any contention about obeying this law came to court, the court would consider "the intention of Parliament" in the law, thus a legal challenge not be upheld. Others are saying this is not the case.
A man on Sky news was suggesting that one way around this was to re-introduce a slightly tweeked version of TM's deal that the ERG would support (so could get through parliment). This would satisfy the Benn Act, but there wouldn't be time to get the revised deal approved by the EU, so we would end up with no deal.
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