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Post by captainconfident on May 27, 2019 10:56:30 GMT
Watch the UK index tracker and buy low. (PS I reckon Boris will duck it again because he is too thick to deal with a no deal hole....maybe we will end up with another female..PM…. Anne Widdecombe I thought you'd be laying into me for the last post, travolta. What do you mean by "No deal hole"? I thought you'd be correcting me about the future Boris once identified, the Sunny Uplands.
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on May 27, 2019 11:28:58 GMT
Gold is probably at fair value at the moment with more upside than down. The country faces a binary choice now. The EU are not going to step in with any more help. So the eventual result will be either 1) Stay in the EU, consequence: a lot of complaining that will always rumble away in the background but financial stability will be regained and the economy will rebound or 2) No deal Brexit, 10 - 50 years of economic disaster and political chaos. One or the other. Project Fear upgraded to Project Terror.
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Post by captainconfident on May 27, 2019 11:31:59 GMT
Gold is probably at fair value at the moment with more upside than down. The country faces a binary choice now. The EU are not going to step in with any more help. So the eventual result will be either 1) Stay in the EU, consequence: a lot of complaining that will always rumble away in the background but financial stability will be regained and the economy will rebound or 2) No deal Brexit, 10 - 50 years of economic disaster and political chaos. One or the other. Project Fear upgraded to Project Terror. Is that the best you could come up with?
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Post by captainconfident on May 27, 2019 12:01:18 GMT
I think Brexit is over now, and it's only a matter of time until it's buried forever. I don't think anyone really thinks that if "The Will of The People" was tested now that we can see the truth, that Brexit would pass with a majority and the politicians can't dodge the voters forever.
The Conservative party will collapse under any likely eventuality because its internal contradictions are too great, and the whole exercise has at root being about holding that party together. 32% of a 37% turnout is the high watermark of the WTO Brexit.
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jo
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Post by jo on May 27, 2019 12:14:26 GMT
Here's what you can authoritatively extrapolate from last night's results: .
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 27, 2019 12:21:14 GMT
If any of the other die hards win the PMship, all bets are off and I'd sell your sterling assets now while the pound still holds 75% of its pre 2016 referendum value. And buy what? I can't find an asset class that doesn't feel horribly toppy right now . Hard currency. Dollars, Euros, Yen, Swiss Francs and Aussie Dollars.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 27, 2019 12:32:04 GMT
registerme Scotland: 3 SNP, 1 Con, 1 Lib Dem, 1 Brexit
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 27, 2019 12:33:55 GMT
The Conservative party will collapse under any likely eventuality because its internal contradictions are too great, and the whole exercise has at root being about holding that party together. 32% of a 37% turnout is the high watermark of the WTO Brexit. Agree that seems likely. Say hello to Labour/SNP or Labour/LibDem or similar coalition at the next GE
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on May 27, 2019 12:43:49 GMT
Gold is probably at fair value at the moment with more upside than down. The country faces a binary choice now. The EU are not going to step in with any more help. So the eventual result will be either 1) Stay in the EU, consequence: a lot of complaining that will always rumble away in the background but financial stability will be regained and the economy will rebound or 2) No deal Brexit, 10 - 50 years of economic disaster and political chaos. One or the other. What route do you think we could take to actually arrive at No-Deal? If a leader is elected who actually follows through with their stated intent of going for No-Deal, then as I see it, they will stopped by Parliament either through the various amendments etc, or if they circumvent that then ultimately through a no confidence motion in the Government. Faced with the prospect of No-Deal, there are enough moderate Conservatives to make that happen and so there would be a General Election. If there is a General Election, then obviously it depends upon what manifestos parties campaign on, but the only way it seems to me for No-Deal to ever gain enough traction would be for some unholy Brexit Party / Conservative No-Deal alliance. Perhaps that could happen, although it still feels a long way off and through a twisted set of circumstances. I think the 3rd option is Revoke -> Restart . The process was so botched that it needs restarting, and doing so is the only way for politicians to actually in theory deliver Brexit as per the democratic mandate. I still think that process would probably ultimately collapse though, just as Brexit always done as soon as we move past the "Brexit means Brexit" level of detail.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on May 27, 2019 12:45:03 GMT
Even Gove will undulate his way out of this one. The EU parliament will be a 3 ring circus for the next few years. Maybe I will go buy a dacha in Georgia after all. Those poor fools still believe they might join this monkey house and get some good out of it. I'll send you food parcels. What was the name of that bank? The Georgia Food Bank?
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shimself
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Post by shimself on May 27, 2019 12:46:19 GMT
......surely the most important figures are the number of MEP's that you have? By my basic maths don't the Brexit party with 28 seats outnumber all the remainers put together? 29 MEPs out of 750?
But if you see the results as representing what people feel about brexit, and indicating how another referendum might go, then no, it's votes (%ages) that count.
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Post by captainconfident on May 27, 2019 12:54:54 GMT
With the choice of that wonderful word, my affection for you only magnifies! Ultimately Cameron was right about the threat of UKIP, but it is the Brexit Party that will destroy them. The First Past the Post system is merciless if two parties stand on similar platforms. Just add the Lib Dem and Green votes together in the last general election or indeed this last one to see a much different outcome. If the Brexit Party stands in a GE, the fracturing of that vote will see them robbing each other of votes in constituency after constituency and a Parliament will be elected with Lib Dem and Labour MPs who have got in through the gap and you will see a parliament with very little Brexit support at all. And another thing from these highly significant elections, the anti Brexit parties are not going to make the mistake of standing against each other again. And another other thing, the Brexit Party's flush will be busted as soon as the manifesto comes out and voters discover that it is run by far right free traders, just as the rump tory party will be. The Brexit vote is probably 50:50 split between "make it ourselves, trade barriers, back to the 50's" fans and total free for all unfettered Capitalism. And that is why the wheels will soon fall off. People keep kidding thin skinned Nige about where the Roubles are coming from. Rubbish! My party is run by top businessmen! It's not the Rouble trail you should be following, it's the Dollars. Nigel's real mates are not the ones he met down the pub. They are bosses and bankers.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on May 27, 2019 17:29:44 GMT
No matter how it happens if we were to stay in the EU there are still going to be at least another 28 eurosceptic MP,s to cause trouble.
If they join with others they can be quite a disruptive force.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 28, 2019 5:44:25 GMT
You can manipulate it how you wish... The Brexit Party candidates have the majority of EU MPs compared any other parties and so..... I don't think that word means what you think it does. 29 out of 73 UK seats is not a majority. It's less than 40%. And if you compare 2014 and 2019, of the votes shed by Labour/Tories plus the additional votes, less than a third of them went to UKIP + Brexit. Even here in Herefordshire, where 60% voted to Leave in 2016, St Nige of the Farridge got <40% of the votes, less than the three anti-Brexit parties.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 28, 2019 5:45:54 GMT
No matter how it happens if we were to stay in the EU there are still going to be at least another 28 eurosceptic MP,s to cause trouble. If they join with others they can be quite a disruptive force. If they're anything like the 2014 24 UKIP MEPs, they'll have difficulty remaining joined to each other - and, since they won't bother to do the job they've been elected for, they won't actually cause any trouble at all. Except to the people processing their expenses claims. And, if you include the Eurosceptic Tory MEPs with the kippers, there are actually fewer Eurosceptic UK MEPs than there were.
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