starfished
Member of DD Central
Posts: 296
Likes: 216
|
Post by starfished on Jun 18, 2021 12:32:42 GMT
Potentially should be part of the Brexit thread but curious on views.... ... proof Starmer is destroying what is left of the Labour party and is doomed or ... proof Boris is destroying moderate Tories goodwill for the Conservative party and is doomed?
Both or Neither?!
|
|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Jun 18, 2021 14:23:35 GMT
Potentially should be part of the Brexit thread but curious on views.... ... proof Starmer is destroying what is left of the Labour party and is doomed or ... proof Boris is destroying moderate Tories goodwill for the Conservative party and is doomed? Both or Neither?! Probably neither (proof wise). HS2 and risk to planning laws (loosening of, removing local control) were probably hugely influencing factors (with the Lib Dem candidate being against HS2 even though her party is for it). And I doubt even the outraged nimbys good citizens of Chesham and Asherham would have dared vote anything other than true blue if the party in power weren't holding an 80 seat majority.
|
|
keitha
Member of DD Central
2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
Posts: 3,875
Likes: 2,314
|
Post by keitha on Jun 18, 2021 14:57:45 GMT
In my opinion some tactical voting by Labour who saw the possibility of bashing Boris.
Apparently some Tories don't like the fact the Boris is popular with Northern voters !
and obviously some NIMBYism with regard to HS2 and planning
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,014
Likes: 4,825
|
Post by adrianc on Jun 18, 2021 16:09:30 GMT
I fear it's actually far simpler than that...
2017 - LD+Lab = 18,500 (11k Lab + 7,5k LD), Con = 33,500, turnout 55,000 2019 - LD+Lab = 21,700 (14.5k LD, 7.2k Lab), Con = 30,800, turnout 56,000 2021 - LD+Lab = 22,000 (21.5k LD, one man and a Lab), Con = 13,500, turnout 38,000
No real difference in the LD+Lab vote - the Tory voters just stayed at home in their droves.
It's just round the corner from where I used to live. A Corbynite of my acquaintance is trying to pitch it as "Corbyn would have won it, it's all Starmer's fault". Cobblers. There are next-to-no staunch lefties round there...
Mind you, said Corbynite seems to be regarding it as a bad thing that Starmer's a loser, rather than a good thing that there's one less Tory MP...
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 4,895
Likes: 2,768
|
Post by michaelc on Jun 18, 2021 16:21:01 GMT
Of course the planning issues - i.e. building more and more houses - applies to much of the Tory SE. I hope this serves as a polite notice from the residents from Chesham and Amersham that the Tory Chairman can't take their votes for granted and will relook at the policy to build more and more houses.
|
|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Jun 18, 2021 17:39:01 GMT
I fear it's actually far simpler than that... 2017 - LD+Lab = 18,500 (11k Lab + 7,5k LD), Con = 33,500, turnout 55,000 2019 - LD+Lab = 21,700 (14.5k LD, 7.2k Lab), Con = 30,800, turnout 56,000 2021 - LD+Lab = 22,000 (21.5k LD, one man and a Lab), Con = 13,500, turnout 38,000 No real difference in the LD+Lab vote - the Tory voters just stayed at home in their droves. It's just round the corner from where I used to live. A Corbynite of my acquaintance is trying to pitch it as "Corbyn would have won it, it's all Starmer's fault". Cobblers. There are next-to-no staunch lefties round there... Mind you, said Corbynite seems to be regarding it as a bad thing that Starmer's a loser, rather than a good thing that there's one less Tory MP... Corbyn would have won it for Chesham and Amersham I can only assume he has not spent much time there, or even driving through the area.
|
|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Jun 18, 2021 17:41:37 GMT
Of course the planning issues - i.e. building more and more houses - applies to much of the Tory SE. I hope this serves as a polite notice from the residents from Chesham and Amersham that the Tory Chairman can't take their votes for granted and will relook at the policy to build more and more houses. I think that message will be ringing loud and clear in the cabinet and in the 1922 committee. Pity its a bit late to impact HS2 though.
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,014
Likes: 4,825
|
Post by adrianc on Jun 19, 2021 7:37:30 GMT
I fear it's actually far simpler than that... 2017 - LD+Lab = 18,500 (11k Lab + 7,5k LD), Con = 33,500, turnout 55,000 2019 - LD+Lab = 21,700 (14.5k LD, 7.2k Lab), Con = 30,800, turnout 56,000 2021 - LD+Lab = 22,000 (21.5k LD, one man and a Lab), Con = 13,500, turnout 38,000 No real difference in the LD+Lab vote - the Tory voters just stayed at home in their droves. It's just round the corner from where I used to live. A Corbynite of my acquaintance is trying to pitch it as "Corbyn would have won it, it's all Starmer's fault". Cobblers. There are next-to-no staunch lefties round there... Mind you, said Corbynite seems to be regarding it as a bad thing that Starmer's a loser, rather than a good thing that there's one less Tory MP... Corbyn would have won it for Chesham and Amersham I can only assume he has not spent much time there, or even driving through the area. Well, quite... But, then, those who are still staunch Corbynites aren't renowned for their prioritisation of reality over dogma.
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,625
Likes: 4,195
|
Post by agent69 on Jun 19, 2021 8:56:48 GMT
Corbyn would have won it for Chesham and Amersham I can only assume he has not spent much time there, or even driving through the area. Well, quite... But, then, those who are still staunch Corbynites aren't renowned for their prioritisation of reality over dogma. I'm not particularly politically motivated, but I do wonder why such a large section of the Labour party can't understand that the only time they were electable over the last 40 years is when they were led by a man who's policies they all detest.
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,014
Likes: 4,825
|
Post by adrianc on Jun 19, 2021 11:16:19 GMT
Well, quite... But, then, those who are still staunch Corbynites aren't renowned for their prioritisation of reality over dogma. I'm not particularly politically motivated, but I do wonder why such a large section of the Labour party can't understand that the only time they were electable over the last 40 years is when they were led by a man who's policies they all detest. They really do seem to see Starmer as the enemy. He's a lot of things (mostly a bit of a disappointment), but you'd think they'd be seeing Johnson's Tories as the enemy... When did we last have a functional opposition in this country?
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,212
Likes: 6,021
|
Post by registerme on Jun 19, 2021 11:29:28 GMT
When did we last have a functional opposition in this country? When did we last have a functional government?
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 4,895
Likes: 2,768
|
Post by michaelc on Jun 19, 2021 12:26:07 GMT
Well, quite... But, then, those who are still staunch Corbynites aren't renowned for their prioritisation of reality over dogma. I'm not particularly politically motivated, but I do wonder why such a large section of the Labour party can't understand that the only time they were electable over the last 40 years is when they were led by a man who's policies they all detest. Actually not quite true IMO. Blair was reasonably socially responsible. He could almost have sat in any of the 3 biggest parties. Other than his blind fondness for following the americans at every turn, I'd rather him than Cameron any day.
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,014
Likes: 4,825
|
Post by adrianc on Jun 19, 2021 15:37:06 GMT
When did we last have a functional opposition in this country? When did we last have a functional government? Which is precisely why we need a functional opposition as much as, if not more than, ever...
|
|
|
Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Jun 19, 2021 19:51:23 GMT
I fear it's actually far simpler than that... 2017 - LD+Lab = 18,500 (11k Lab + 7,5k LD), Con = 33,500, turnout 55,000 2019 - LD+Lab = 21,700 (14.5k LD, 7.2k Lab), Con = 30,800, turnout 56,000 2021 - LD+Lab = 22,000 (21.5k LD, one man and a Lab), Con = 13,500, turnout 38,000 No real difference in the LD+Lab vote - the Tory voters just stayed at home in their droves. It's just round the corner from where I used to live. A Corbynite of my acquaintance is trying to pitch it as "Corbyn would have won it, it's all Starmer's fault". Cobblers. There are next-to-no staunch lefties round there... Mind you, said Corbynite seems to be regarding it as a bad thing that Starmer's a loser, rather than a good thing that there's one less Tory MP...
Thanks for this analysis ... I'm wondering why I've not heard this sort of breakdown of the facts in the media. Everyone's just saying what a shock it is. That's not to say that I'm questioning your figures and analysis, it sounds highly likely! I wonder if the media will tell us this on Sunday. Does that sound too cynical?
|
|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Jun 19, 2021 20:36:58 GMT
I'm not particularly politically motivated, but I do wonder why such a large section of the Labour party can't understand that the only time they were electable over the last 40 years is when they were led by a man who's policies they all detest. Actually not quite true IMO. Blair was reasonably socially responsible. He could almost have sat in any of the 3 biggest parties. ... Isn't that what agent69 was saying ? The 'they' refers to the core, or at least current' labour party membership. Who mostly hate Blair with a vengenance. Labour is naturally the perennial party of opposition: that core prize idealistic purity over electability.
|
|