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Post by bernythedolt on Jan 5, 2022 19:33:30 GMT
In general, the market dictates the price rather than any expert on a given event. There are a few exceptions, but you're usually not betting against the bookmakers expertise but rather against others staking bets in (often indirectly) opposite directions. The bookie adjusts odds to keep themselves unexposed to the actual outcome, and mostly make money from spread. So the odds (market-dictated value) need not represent reality at all, just as in any financial market (GME being an extreme example) Sorry about that, I described it very badly and you are right. I meant the voter sentiment that may then influence market sentiment. I completely agree that the markets are frequently wrong, even if just for a short space of time and that is what value gamblers and investor look for. Voter sentiment is huge in political betting and I think it is the reason that markets are often mispriced. I often lay a small wager against an England football win and get terrific value on the bet (on an exchange market, never with a bookie). The sheep so love to back their hero team at any cost (almost 'willing' their bet to influence the outcome) that it reduces their odds dramatically, thereby leaving the 'lay' an attractive option. It's the best type of bet.... either 'my team' wins or I win money, so I'm left smiling. As you say, sentiment gives an edge to the value gambler. Of course, the sophisticated gambling teams continuously run robotised software looking for just this angle, sniping the best odds whenever they show, and turning a small fortune in the process, so you always have to remember who you're up against. A couple of years ago, a TV program showed one of these mega-bucks computerised operations, with full-time employees monitoring banks of screens, and the owner saying how much profit he creamed off the betting market every day. Certainly opened my eyes.
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tallsuk
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Post by tallsuk on Jan 7, 2022 17:02:47 GMT
I have seen another bet in a similar vain. The market is 'Trump to become President before 2025' and I can not see how this would be possible any way apart from a coup/revolution. If there is that sort of revlution in the US I dont think I will be worry about a bet.
The problem is the return is only 10% and I cant see any way of justifying the cash being tied up until 2025.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 7, 2022 17:08:53 GMT
I have seen another bet in a similar vain. The market is 'Trump to become President before 2025' and I can not see how this would be possible any way apart from a coup/revolution. It's the US. They're hatstand enough to do it. Trump is streets ahead in polling for the Republican primaries to be the 2024 candidate - 53% of support, nearest challenger 17%... One poll gives him 67%... www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2024-republican-presidential-nomination/
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2022 17:37:39 GMT
Political betting suits those with a traders mentality. The odds can swing wildly based on gossip, rumour etc. Just look at the last by-election. The favourite ping-ponged between Tory and the Lib Dems multiple times up to and including election day. Brexit, Trump vs Clinton, May vs Corbyn... it's been an 'interesting' few years for unexpected political results In fact, even though Trump vs Biden ultimately went as 'expected', the swings on election night as results came in were huge. Johnson vs Corbyn was unusual for being so predictable... but even that had some very strange outcomes like the red wall falling.
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tallsuk
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Post by tallsuk on Jan 7, 2022 17:42:23 GMT
I have seen another bet in a similar vain. The market is 'Trump to become President before 2025' and I can not see how this would be possible any way apart from a coup/revolution. It's the US. They're hatstand enough to do it. Trump is streets ahead in polling for the Republican primaries to be the 2024 candidate - 53% of support, nearest challenger 17%... One poll gives him 67%... www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2024-republican-presidential-nomination/If he wins the next election he would take office in January 2025 which would be after the bet has closed. The fact he has such a good chance makes it even more likely he will not do anything to risk losing.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 7, 2022 17:44:20 GMT
If he wins the next election he would take office in January 2025 which would be after the bet has closed. The fact he has such a good chance makes it even more likely he will not do anything to risk losing. Ah, ISWYM. Are they going by inauguration, or by election result declaration? Definitely one for the smallprint...
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tallsuk
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Post by tallsuk on Jan 7, 2022 18:11:42 GMT
Political betting suits those with a traders mentality. The odds can swing wildly based on gossip, rumour etc. Just look at the last by-election. The favourite ping-ponged between Tory and the Lib Dems multiple times up to and including election day. Brexit, Trump vs Clinton, May vs Corbyn... it's been an 'interesting' few years for unexpected political results In fact, even though Trump vs Biden ultimately went as 'expected', the swings on election night as results came in were huge. Johnson vs Corbyn was unusual for being so predictable... but even that had some very strange outcomes like the red wall falling. I could not agree more, there have been some great results for value bettors. I think those results have meant many people got lucky based on their politics and are now encouraged to keep going. I think thats why there are so many wild swings and some great prices that make no sense. My favourite by-election this year was Amersham where the bookies had the Tories priced at 1/20 giving them a 95% chance. People gave the LDs no chance.
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tallsuk
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Post by tallsuk on Jan 7, 2022 18:12:46 GMT
If he wins the next election he would take office in January 2025 which would be after the bet has closed. The fact he has such a good chance makes it even more likely he will not do anything to risk losing. Ah, ISWYM. Are they going by inauguration, or by election result declaration? Definitely one for the smallprint... The rules actually state: If Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential election but is not inaugurated until the scheduled date in January 2025, this market will settle as No. However, the return is still not enough for three years.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jan 7, 2022 20:28:18 GMT
Ah, ISWYM. Are they going by inauguration, or by election result declaration? Definitely one for the smallprint... The rules actually state: If Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential election but is not inaugurated until the scheduled date in January 2025, this market will settle as No. However, the return is still not enough for three years. I wonder how many people are betting not realising this? Almost seems like a scam.
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Jan 7, 2022 22:51:35 GMT
Just Looked odds on next president
400/1 Meghan Markle 400/1 Oprah Winfrey 65/1 Dwayne ( the Rock ) Johnson 5/1 Joe Biden
25/1 any party other than Democrat or Republican to win
1/4 Democrats to get most votes, but 5/4 a Democrat President
2022 Elections
1/5 Republican Majority in house of Representatives 1/2 Republican Majority in Congress
therefore pretty much odds on that Biden will be a lame duck President for his last 2 years
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Jan 7, 2022 23:14:54 GMT
Another Silly
2022 French Presidential Election
to Win
1/2 Macron 7/2 Valerie Pecresse 11.5/1 Marine Le Pen
So Logic suggests
Macron Vs Pecresse in run off
Last 2 Betting
1/5 Macron 1/1 Le Pen 5/2 Pecresse
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 8, 2022 8:20:37 GMT
This is not changing my belief that the only way to win at betting is to be the bookie.
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tallsuk
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Post by tallsuk on Jan 8, 2022 12:00:38 GMT
The rules actually state: If Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential election but is not inaugurated until the scheduled date in January 2025, this market will settle as No. However, the return is still not enough for three years. I wonder how many people are betting not realising this? Almost seems like a scam. I can understand why it looks that way but these bets come from an exchange and not a bookie. They charge a commission on winnings and don’t benefit from losing bets. I think it is because the biggest exchange is reducing the amount of political betting markets they offer, whilst the young pretender is making a huge effort and offering lots of really interesting markets. Although most work well, one or two are very clumsy and I think this is one of the clumsy ones.
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tallsuk
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Post by tallsuk on Jan 8, 2022 12:14:11 GMT
Another Silly 2022 French Presidential Election to Win 1/2 Macron 7/2 Valerie Pecresse 11.5/1 Marine Le Pen So Logic suggests Macron Vs Pecresse in run off Last 2 Betting 1/5 Macron 1/1 Le Pen 5/2 Pecresse These bets do look strange, but it is because of the political structures they are based on. In the US, the electoral college system favours states with lower populations which are often the republican strongholds. States with large populations such as California and New York which are traditionally Democratic strongholds don’t have the same sway. This means that although the Democrats are more likely to win the popular vote the Republicans are more likely to win the presidency. It is even more skewed this way in the UK, with the winning party often getting a big majority with only 40% of the vote. The French system was designed in the late ‘40s, with a primary aim of not letting the Far Right into power. My largest bet ever was on Le Pen not winning last time round in 2017. I think she was heavily backed by Trump and Brexit supporters who fancied another upset without understanding the system. The traditional parties are really struggling in France right now and therefore Le Pen is still considered to be an option for finishing in the top two. A vote of 20% should secure a place in the final run off but then Le Pen is likely to struggle to get any new votes and is likely to lose the runoff no matter who she is up against and will probably lose 75-25. It looks as if the betting is strange, but it does make sense.
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tallsuk
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Post by tallsuk on Jan 8, 2022 12:25:54 GMT
This is not changing my belief that the only way to win at betting is to be the bookie. One of the best things about using betting exchanges is that punters can take on the role of the bookie which means that prices tend to be far fairer. My favourite bet to highlight how bad UK bookies actually are is the coin toss before a test match. Almost every UK book sees the probability as 45% heads, 45% tails with the remaining 10% disappearing into their pockets. That’s the reason it is impossible to beat the bookies as the odds are so heavily stacked against you.
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