tallsuk
Member of DD Central
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Post by tallsuk on Jan 25, 2022 11:25:22 GMT
I am new to P2P but I have been gambling a long time and I think the principals are very similar. Everything is about value, risk and reward that can be worked out in very similar ways. I have bet on many different things but my key area is politics and economics and I do quite well. Unlike the big markets, football, racing, golf etc I tend to find these markets can be quite soft as they are not quite big enough to attract the big boys who know exactly what they are doing. I don’t know if anyone is interested, or if here is the right place, but every so often I find a market that I think can be classified as an investment opportunity. Importantly, they are often around important political events that many people here discuss and therefore might be interesting even for people who have no interest in gambling. Currently the betting market thinks that there is only a 70% chance that Joe Biden will see out his first term. If he dies, then the market is void. I think this hugely undervalues the actual chances. To not finish his term he will have to either be impeached, resign or fall seriously ill. Impeachment requires a two thirds majority in the Senate and therefore is almost impossible. Voluntary resignation from a career politician who has spent his who life wanting this job is unlikely and involuntary resignation would require the sort of scandal that a politician like him has been avoiding his whole career. This means that the mostly likely reason he would not finish his term is illness. This is the biggest worry as he is 79. At that age, when working in an incredibly difficult job, the risk of serious and incapacitating illness must be well above average. However, as President of a country where the rich get the very best medical treatment in the world and who I suspect undergoes very regular medical examinations with no expense spared. If you think the chances of him reaching 2025 still employed are greater than 75%, then this is a good bet. The biggest issue is that it will take 3 years for the pay off and the amount available is limited and if it goes wrong, you lose all your capital, but gambling winnings are tax free. So is a 43% return for tying up capital justify the risk? I am interested to hear what P2Pers think?? I have kept on digging into this and I think the only reason for the great odds is that Turmp keeps on telling his support that Biden is mentally unfit and therefore they keep on putting money on him leaving the job early. There is of course no evidence what so ever and this is basically trump trying to do as much as possible to support his 2024 presidential run. To me that just reinforces what a great value bet it is.
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Mar 11, 2022 14:31:37 GMT
Interesting shorter term political bet 6/4 Ukraine to win Eurovision
Italy second favourite at 3/1
Sweden third at 14/1
UK 4th at 33/2
Given that the judges have 1/2 the marks and are supposed to be impartial that's very low on Ukraine, and having heard the UK song ours is ridiculously low too.
US Election 2024
Trump is 6/1 to get most votes, Biden at just under 5/1
Trump is 4/1 to win Biden is 11/2
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adrianc
Member of DD Central
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Post by adrianc on Mar 11, 2022 14:52:38 GMT
Interesting shorter term political bet 6/4 Ukraine to win Eurovision Italy second favourite at 3/1 Sweden third at 14/1 UK 4th at 33/2 Given that the judges have 1/2 the marks and are supposed to be impartial that's very low on Ukraine, and having heard the UK song ours is ridiculously low too. Having heard the vapid whimper we're entering, I'll have a fiver on nul points again. Are we actually trying to come last? Half the reason we often seem to do badly is that as one of the "big five" countries, we get a pass through all the qualifications, straight into the finals. Doesn't matter how slim our chance, how awful our entry. We just get to be humiliated big-time, rather than slinking off quietly after the semis.
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Mar 11, 2022 14:57:28 GMT
I'd agree on that one
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 12, 2022 13:02:03 GMT
(Then why not signal your agreement by an uptick on his post?)
Let's face it, Ukraine has already won Eurovision, before even singing a note.
It morphed from singing competition to popularity contest long ago. Greece votes for Cyprus, Cyprus votes for Greece, and so on. Someone pass the bucket...
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Mar 12, 2022 16:04:11 GMT
It morphed from singing competition to popularity contest long ago. Greece votes for Cyprus, Cyprus votes for Greece, and so on. Someone pass the bucket... If that were true, how come it's regularly won by different countries? Last 10 years, 9 different winners. Top 3 positions, 18 countries, just five repeats - 2 x 4 times, 1 x 3 times, 2 x twice. Are Italy and Russia somehow the most popular countries? 2021 - Italy winners, France 2nd, Switzerland 3rd. 2019 - NL, Italy, Russia 2018 - Israel, Cyprus, Austria 2017 - Portugal, Bulgaria, Moldova 2016 - Ukraine, Australia, Russia 2015 - Sweden, Russia, Italy 2014 - Austria, NL, Sweden 2013 - Denmark, Azerbaijan, Ukraine 2012 - Sweden, Russia, Serbia 2011 - Azerbaijan, Italy, Sweden
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 12, 2022 17:49:17 GMT
Even popularity contests find different winners. Come on, it's SO partisan. Sweden votes a chunk for Norway, Norway --> Finland, Finland --> Sweden, and all vote handsomely for Iceland and Denmark, etc, etc. Then there's Greece <--> Cyprus. Maximum points in both directions!
At least this time around, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Bulgaria will have to put a little more effort into who they want to butter up, given Russia's expulsion. The UK could yet scrape a point...
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adrianc
Member of DD Central
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Post by adrianc on Mar 12, 2022 18:24:51 GMT
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 12, 2022 18:44:17 GMT
I guess it was to be expected after Brexit. It didn't help our cause that our entry last year was dire though.
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Mar 12, 2022 22:04:03 GMT
I half feel that the lack of Uk success is mostly irrelevant almost a backhanded compliment. Most seem to sing in English anyway. I have very rarely watched it (and never more than half an hours worth), and feel it has passed its sell by date as 'popular' entertainment by any sensible measure, and long ago its founding purpose. However there does seem to be a considerable hard core of devotees to the strange nonsense, I would not wish to make them suffer by my wonderous indifference. Stick it on pay TV and let those who care subsidise it and gain the right to vote on a winner.
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 13, 2022 0:59:08 GMT
I half feel that the lack of Uk success is mostly irrelevant almost a backhanded compliment. Most seem to sing in English anyway. I have very rarely watched it (and never more than half an hours worth), and feel it has passed its sell by date as 'popular' entertainment by any sensible measure, and long ago its founding purpose. However there does seem to be a considerable hard core of devotees to the strange nonsense, I would not wish to make them suffer by my wonderous indifference. Stick it on pay TV and let those who care subsidise it and gain the right to vote on a winner. To even know this, you could be in denial of rather more addictive viewing time than you care to admit. Ask yourself, can you watch alone, without bingeing? Do you know when you've had enough and then tell yourself to stop? For anyone affected by the issues raised in this thread, there will be a helpline available at the end.
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keitha
Member of DD Central
2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Mar 13, 2022 10:45:17 GMT
I guess it was to be expected after Brexit. It didn't help our cause that our entry last year was dire though. I felt it was more down to an attitude of "this will launch my career", although the song wasn't great I pretty sure though even if we had a band with Paul McCartney on Guitar, Elton John on Piano, and Robbie Williams and Adele on vocals wed still finish in the bottom half. our TikTok star has to realise that if this goes wrong half way through he can't stop the recording and start again. One way to win is a catchy song or a singer or band that is very left field Lordi Manneskin Netta Conchita Wurst I mean many of us can name UK entries going back years , but the last 20 years or so are only memorable for being so forgettable
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Mar 13, 2022 11:12:02 GMT
I pretty sure though even if we had a band with Paul McCartney on Guitar, Elton John on Piano, and Robbie Williams and Adele on vocals wed still finish in the bottom half. ...and I'm sure that would be very well deserved. Sounds like an absolutely awful cod-retro lash-up based only on "Just look at the NAMES!". Back in the late 90s, at the height of "Cool Britannia"'s British music was leading the world, we came first and second in consecutive years. But that wasn't with the likes of Oasis and Blur... No, it was Gina G's "Ooh, ah, just a little bit" and an American band who'd been successful in the 80s... In 2002, we came 3rd, our last-but-one single-digit finish (2009, 5th, with a former Sugababe). The following year... Nul points. If it's all political, how did we lose all those friends in just a year?
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Mar 13, 2022 11:24:01 GMT
IMHO the public vote is usually less biased than the Juries.
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 13, 2022 11:41:54 GMT
I pretty sure though even if we had a band with Paul McCartney on Guitar, Elton John on Piano, and Robbie Williams and Adele on vocals wed still finish in the bottom half. ...and I'm sure that would be very well deserved. Sounds like an absolutely awful cod-retro lash-up based only on "Just look at the NAMES!". Back in the late 90s, at the height of "Cool Britannia"'s British music was leading the world, we came first and second in consecutive years. But that wasn't with the likes of Oasis and Blur... No, it was Gina G's "Ooh, ah, just a little bit" and an American band who'd been successful in the 80s... In 2002, we came 3rd, our last-but-one single-digit finish (2009, 5th, with a former Sugababe). The following year... Nul points. If it's all political, how did we lose all those friends in just a year?You could equally well ask, how did we lose all that singing prowess in just a year? Such a sudden sea change is more likely to be politically-rooted than artistically.
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