War in Ukraine (Previously - Will there be War?)

I don't think "we" will go to war with Russia.  But I am unsure as to whether or not Russia will invade Ukraine.

I find it surprising that there's been no Russian media banging of the patriotic war drums to prepare the population in advance of any invasion.  So I am hoping that it's just Putin waving his wang around making mischief as per normal.  But... I could be wrong .

Of course if he decides to mess with the Baltic States things will get a lot, lot more dangerous.

And if the balloon does go up in Europe I think the chances of China taking advantage of it and opportunistically having a go at Taiwan go up considerably.

There's good reason to be nervous.

"We" as in any western power will certainly not go to war with Russia - not physically. Peer on Peer conflict with Russia as a nuclear power is simply not going to happen as a result of aggression against a non-Nato member. It will be avoided at all costs.

Economic warfare and potentially cyber warfare, plus supply of material is another issue. I suspect the former will happen and will be meaningful and severe. Cyber warfare: possibly, but there is a significant risk of severe cyber counter attack so this may be avoided. And I suspect that supply of material post actual start of conflict may be redundant. I would have thought it odds on that the might of the Russian military will mean a very rapid overrun of Ukrainian positions. If of course they stop after a partial land grab, then supply of material might well continue. But so far I fear we have done too little too late to change an outcome. The optimist in me though says perhaps what has been done is enough to provide a very bloody nose and a consequent halt to proceedings relatively early. 

Germany's lack of spine in not even allowing overflights from friendly nations that have taken up the baton of supplying material to Ukraine is particularly disgraceful. 

All nation's lack of spine in responding to the Crimean grab is equally disgraceful, and that particular chicken has come home to roost.

Someone said to me that warm weather (and therefore insufficiently frozen terra firma) has held up the green light being given to Russian forces: I have no idea whether that is true, but if it is then still an outside possibility that Putin will not go ahead. 

On the China/Taiwan angle:
China flies 39 warplanes towards Taiwan as tensions with island rise

Has Italy surrendered yet ?

When can we invade France

Stock Markets seem very Jittery

One view would be that it is about internal distraction, banging the nationalistic drum to detract from internal discord. It is not the first time that Putin would have played that card. However, it probably isn't that simplistic. Putin genuinely wants to regain the Soviet 'sphere of influence', and wants to leave a legacy. This is not new:

 In his 2005 state of the nation address, Russian President Vladimir Putin, the former KGB officer who had been on the front lines of Moscow’s covert efforts against NATO during the 1980s, described the collapse of the Soviet Union as the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century.

I had a discussion on Saturday with someone who was explaining how Russia has always been obsessed with its Western borders due to their being no natural defences in its territory to the west. Instead it is dominated by open plains. See Napolean and Hitler for how that affects the Russian geo-political psyche. On that level, creating buffer zones/sphere of influence in that direction as an insurance policy against emergence of a future western European aggressor is entirely rational. Especially if you want to 'leave a legacy'.

I just found this article which looks semi-interesting, if a bit long. I've read parts, (from which the above quote is lifted) not all of it.

Russia’s Clash With the West Is About Geography, Not Ideology

Very well put IMO.

Although it is of course extremely aggressive to put your troops at the border. Arming Ukraine as you say is also aggressive.

I don't know what the UK were playing at naming an individual who Russia "plans" to install in Ukraine given that this individual is someone not liked by the russians. All very odd and I assume part of a propoganda machine going to overdrive (on both sides no doubt). From this story, it would seem our government is not as well practiced as theirs...

I left yesterday and there were zero signs of panic there although my plane out to Austria was full in both classes. I don't think Ukranians need visas for Schengen countries but they do for the UK.

I think if Putin does move on Kyiv the Ukranians will just say "ok...we surrender...install your russian puppet and lets get on with how things have always been...". Of course there IS a risk that the western media is correct and that the Ukranians will fight to the death but I really doubt that very much. There are a few Ukranian nationalist types who may well do that but the majority will not care much as long as there is no fighting. Neither side is fanatical IMO. That said, I can't take risks with my family so we're getting out for now.

The best result would be for an agreement trhat the US/UK stop arming the Ukranians and the Bear skulks home.

Does anyone have any military knowledge? I was wondering what are the costs involved in having such large armies out of barracks? How long could russia sustain it? And also what of this talk of them needing to invade in the next 2 months as "the ground is frozen making it easier for tanks". Why can't they use the roads all year round? Any thoughts on this anyone?