keitha
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Post by keitha on Mar 26, 2022 22:28:04 GMT
Just come off the phone to a friend of mine who was on Benefits and he says that 60 hours work a week gets him £10 a week more than he got on benefits, so as he sees it he's working for< 20p an hour. Cobblers. 60hrs at minimum wage is £30k/year. 30K Less Tax and NI say £25K benefits £7,200 as a couple on UC extra £5,000 as daughter disabled £2,000 as they don't pay council tax on benefits £7,000 to pay Mortgage interest ( It's now a loan that has to be repaid when you start working ) free school transport etc etc he also got extra as his partner has a mental health condition
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 27, 2022 14:26:14 GMT
Have you read up much on Universal Basic Income? If not, the book that convinced me is Rutger Bregman's Utopia for Realists. I found I had that book on my Kindle, so gave the UBI chapter a quick skim. Didn't see any detail of how the scheme might work in the UK at a national level. Have you seen anybody run the numbers for specific scheme(s) in the UK showing it could work?
Some years ago I came across "Exploring the Distributional and Work Incentive Effects of Plausible Illustrative Basic Income Schemes, Dr Luke Martinelli IPR Research Associate, University of Bath" ( PDF) which ran the figures on various models (see P21) and concluded "Our main findings suggest that when we pay for a UBI by withdrawing a large number of benefits and increasing payroll taxes, large numbers of households will inevitably experience significant losses of income. More significantly, despite the generally progressive character of the schemes modelled here, these losses are not concentrated among richer groups; on the contrary, they are proportionally larger for the bottom three income quintiles."
That work references "Universal Basic Income: An idea whose time has come?, Howard Reed and Stewart Lansley" ( PDF) which concludes "One lesson from these simulations and other studies is that, in the context of existing tax and benefit arrangements, it is not possible to design a scheme that is revenue neutral, pays a decent sum and withdraws most means-tested benefits without significant numbers of losers. This is because the current benefits system, partly because of its complexity and reliance on means testing, is able to pay large sums to some groups. While the current system is buckling under the pressure of its own complexity, a simpler, flat-rate UBI scheme cannot compensate for the withdrawal of both personal tax allowance and most means-tested benefits without becoming expensive."
Also referenced in the IPR/University of Bath piece is "How might we implement a citizen's income, Malcolm Tory" ( PDF) which concludes "The first implementation method, introducing a large citizen’s income for all, would require substantial additional public funding, and so in the short term it is not feasible." (but does make more positive comments about other options)
Going back to the book Utopia for Realists, found this review by Will Hutton "My biggest beef is the idea that increasingly grips liberal thinkers desperate for anything radical – the concept of a universal income for all. Financially, behaviourally and organisationally bonkers, this idea is gaining traction on the bien pensant left. ... a universal basic income is no more likely to succeed than communism"
Edit: Just found "Modelling the Economic Impact of a Citizen’s Basic Income in Scotland" by Fraser of Allender Institute, Manchester Metropolitan University and IPPR Scotland ( PDF). Summary: "Introducing a substantial, permanent and unconditional CBI will require a massive fiscal effort by Scottish taxpayers, in exchange for a significant reduction in inequality. If a future government wished to consider introducing a CBI at scale, then to avoid any negative economic impact, it will need to ensure that society as a whole is ready for such an initiative, is fully supportive for what it is trying to achieve, and has people ready and willing to pay to see it happen."
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Mar 27, 2022 21:32:26 GMT
Labour are proposing a UBI test in Wales.
they say it's a representative trial but will only be open to care leavers and will pay them £1600 a month for 2 years from their 18th birthday.
for me it will give the recipients unrealistic expectations , after 2 years they will drop to £100 a week if still on benefits, and if they get a job then £19,200 a year take home is well above average for this area
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2022 8:18:58 GMT
I think care leavers suffer badly when they are turfed out of the care system, and this may offer a sensible way forward.
However, there are those who will benefit from this support and those who waste it. What worries me, always, is that those who waste opportunities become a burden on those who don't.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Mar 28, 2022 9:16:57 GMT
...and if they get a job then £19,200 a year take home is well above average for this area It's not even 40hr minimum wage.
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Mar 28, 2022 9:28:49 GMT
...and if they get a job then £19,200 a year take home is well above average for this area It's not even 40hr minimum wage. No, its well over. Current minimum wage is £8.91 x 2080 =18532.80 minus tax, pension, etc deductions for actual take home.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Mar 28, 2022 9:30:31 GMT
It's not even 40hr minimum wage. No, its well over. Current minimum wage is £8.91 x 2080 =18532.80 minus tax, pension, etc deductions for actual take home. Until this Friday, when it goes to £9.50. I will grant you I missed "take home".
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Mar 28, 2022 9:57:00 GMT
Back to inflation
Council tax bill just arrived BG council trumpeting no increase, Given a 8.4% increase in grant from Welsh Government it would be hard to justify and still leaves us with one of if not the highest precept in the UK. However the Police precept up 6% and the town council is up 50%
yes the final increase is only £24 a year but when budgets are tight ..
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2022 10:08:12 GMT
just a thought
"take home"
sorry missed the other comments above
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corto
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Post by corto on Mar 28, 2022 10:11:02 GMT
Most jobs have you work less than 52 weeks; more like <1700hours pa
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Mar 28, 2022 10:41:46 GMT
UBI in Wales the suggested rates are :-
£213 per week for adults 18-64 £120 per week for Children £195 per week for those aged over 64
So a couple with 2 children would get £656 a week or £2,840 a month
for me it raises the question how is it paid for.
Obviously if you give someone on a state pension of £800 a month an extra £850 then instead of £0 in tax they would pay £1400 a year of in tax , Of course for those with even a small pension that pays tax they'd end up paying £2000 a year in extra tax
one of the ironies of something like this is that I as an example would have £650 a month extra, I would probably end up investing some and giving some to my grand children or potentially buying a bigger better house
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Mar 28, 2022 11:23:56 GMT
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 28, 2022 11:32:01 GMT
UBI in Wales the suggested rates are :- £213 per week for adults 18-64 £120 per week for Children £195 per week for those aged over 64 So a couple with 2 children would get £656 a week or £2,840 a month for me it raises the question how is it paid for. Obviously if you give someone on a state pension of £800 a month an extra £850 then instead of £0 in tax they would pay £1400 a year of in tax , Of course for those with even a small pension that pays tax they'd end up paying £2000 a year in extra tax one of the ironies of something like this is that I as an example would have £650 a month extra, I would probably end up investing some and giving some to my grand children or potentially buying a bigger better house re "for me it raises the question how is it paid for."
BBC article "Every 18-year-old leaving care will be offered £1,600 a month for two years under a Welsh government basic income pilot. It is expected about 500 people will be eligible to join the scheme, which could cost up to £20m. ... But the Welsh government is no longer calling the plans a pilot of Universal Basic Income (UBI), where every individual is given a sum of money. ... Asked why it was not a trial of UBI, Social Justice Minister Jane Hutt told BBC Wales that the government needed "to be realistic". and the pilot needed to be "meaningful in terms of the funding"."
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Mar 28, 2022 11:42:02 GMT
Good employers give 28 days plus bank holidays as a minimum bad employers count the bank holidays in
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jlend
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Post by jlend on Mar 28, 2022 11:44:14 GMT
Most jobs have you work less than 52 weeks; more like <1700hours pa Workers are entitled to paid statutory holidays, even causal workers. If you work full time you get at least 28 days paid holiday, some employers offer more. The average, seasonally adjusted, hours for full time work fell during covid but is recovering. Pre covid it was between 37 and 38 hours a week. I don't know what the profile of people on or close the minimum wage looks like. I suspect a relatively high proportion of insecure and casual work vs other cohorts. 2080 hours based on a 40 hour week for 52 weeks (including paid holiday) will be towards the top end, but is not an unreasonable upper quartile proxy, it is what i would have used as a proxy. A 37 hour week for 52 weeks would be 1924 hours. For full time work 1700 paid hours would be low.
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