adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 30, 2019 13:00:32 GMT
just checked the FS INDEX - All active and past loans post - huge amount of red text - can't see many that look good to me - hopefully West Bromwich, Welsh church, Ladybank, the 2 related NI properties and a few others...
Happy New Year to all - excepting the FS directors!
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 29, 2019 18:46:13 GMT
So I did as I expect a lot of us did - but this p2p company is called Funding Secure....
Anybody with £40m cash is welcome to buy this loan book and return 50% of my holding!
As stated I just feel the total realised is going to be extremely poor and praise the day I sold out what loans I could and I still feel like slapping myself for investing with these characters in the first place and trusting them to inform us when loans were linked - what a Muppet I was!
not in my experience! 25% of them at best - many are a complete joke e.g. Formby , Barnoldswick, list of property in NI etc etc
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 28, 2019 17:55:24 GMT
very true although not missed as I really can't see what difference it makes - the loan book is a pile of pants however you cut it - true a small percent are coming good but there are MANY big ones which have zero chance of doing this and plenty of others that have a very good chance of realising nothing precisely nothing e.g. art loans,Barnoldswich cottage etc
nobody here (as far as I can see) has an agenda to scare anybody - hardly as if any of us are going to bid on the loan book is it! The loan book is rubbish, the business model was rubbish, the "management" was rubbish, the FCA were rubbish, dubious claims of trading plans making 15%+ or whatever were rubbish - only sound advice was offered by several of us viz - get the hell out of FS!
FS has gone the way of the Labour Party , the Lib-Dems and the remoaners - stuffed good and proper not that some people are refusing to accept this fact.
Nobody will be happier than I if we get a recovery of over 50% but I really can't see it which is not the same as any of us scaring anybody...
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 28, 2019 17:34:34 GMT
very true and although pleased I am surprised the service station loans came good - that said such loans are going to be less and less and the months go by - at the same time the percentage of duff loans in the loan book is going to be more and more. If we take the series of 4 indexed loans that alone is a total of over £17m which are highly problematic so say a generous £10m loss there - speedboats another £1m (and that is excluding the endurance boat) art loans a possible £3m loss so that is already a very quick possible £14m loss. We have numerous other farces e.g Welsh hotel , Barnoldswick Lennymuir all expected to be mega losses throw in administrator and recovery costs and yes I can easily foresee a 50% loss!
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 28, 2019 14:57:54 GMT
Is that from a 'quickie' sale of the whole book; or as a total of returns from individual redemption?
good question - I estimate 50% from individual redemption - I agree with the points made about having to reduce this sum realised if the loan book is ditched - looking at the poll for estimated losses I thought some of the 60% loss results were a bit pessimistic but after such useful comments from people with relevant experience I am not so sure these mega losses are not going to happen! Valid though my original concerns were about the viability of many loans as per my top 40 I think my original logic was poor as I failed to realise just what an almighty shambles this p2p platform was from start to finish - I am also extremely concerned about just what role the directors played and why they bought this platform in the first place.
Guess we will just have to wait until the New Year to hear what the next stage will be...
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 27, 2019 17:01:56 GMT
quite possibly but I wonder if this would be cost-effective - well at least we are all agreed this is a complete and utter Horlicks. As I said I would like the administrators to start updating us with plans for individual loans e.g. the tower block in Formby which must be costing a fortune with maintenance, security etc
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 27, 2019 12:21:18 GMT
I with with Pip - as a rough figure I can see us losing 50% ish of the loan book - whatever the final percentage the point I am making is that the final figure will be very poor and hence worth discussing just ditching the loan book and cutting out losses before we move on
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 26, 2019 16:33:52 GMT
course they will - once interest rates go up there will be a jump in bad debts, the crisis in P2P will grow (Funding Secure is the latest one to go under) and the whole industry will take a hammering. At this point the FCA may actually do something so the market can recover on a sound footing.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 26, 2019 16:29:25 GMT
Clearly that would be the moral thing to do but no chance of that as some of them have already cleaned-up and moved on. What I would say to FC is don't get too smug your money is not clean and I believe in karma so don't laugh too much as you don't know what is around the corner...
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 26, 2019 16:26:12 GMT
I always said this one would be a disaster - I am pleased there has been some recovery (bit still feel for all investors) - can anybody tell me what has actually happened here as being in this business I would be very interested to know.
Hopefully after seeing the episode some developer with deep pockets took it off FC's hands?
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 26, 2019 16:14:30 GMT
exactly- and we all know how administration and disbursement costs can be disputed!
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 26, 2019 16:11:19 GMT
Clearly the loan book is going to be sold off either in its entirety or in individual pieces. As I see it - it is worth ,at least, comparing what we would get for a quick total sale with minimum fees and a quick return as opposed to individual sales with higher fees and a longer waiting period.
Believe me all the property developments will be known to local developers and marked as a lemon. Being in this business I have met some very dodgy and not very nice people some of whom are highly intelligent and I wonder just how safe our security is or to put another way I wonder if some of these loans simply aren't worth pursuing - due entirely to FS being so grossly incompetent. What a complete and utter Horlicks all round.
Interested to hear opinions from people who know the administration business but what worries me ,whether justified or not is that the administrators hold too many cards and if some of these loans cost £100K+ to settle we could end-up with a multi million pound settlement being taken out of our recovery. Of course if the FCA had done their job properly we would not be in this mess.
What do I think we could get for the entire loan book - 50% if we are lucky
Ref *otary - I never said all of them were into back-handers- won't say what a few of them were into but here are 2 clues - car-keys and private video showings!
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 24, 2019 18:54:46 GMT
very true - sorry you have so much invested and I hope you get a reasonable amount returned - I just hope others with similar sums can afford to play the long game.
As a general point I am still a bit confused as to what the actual position is - hopefully the administrators fee is fixed as mentioned?
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 24, 2019 18:20:57 GMT
this is true but highly insulting if not silly when applied to me - and here's why - I have only built one house and that was about 30 years ago - since then I concentrate on old and historic buildings as I am a property nut - in fact I have often restored when demolition would have been cheaper - my current projects include: a 16th century cottage - under restoration, a large early 19C shop under renovation - my architect said to rip out the original stairs and convert to 6 flats but I refused to do this, a 17/18th C shop which I restored with wooden frontage despite plastic being cheaper and am selling to a local charity at a loss, a large 19c house which again I was advised to convert into flats but refused ...easy to make cheap jibes isn't it?
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 24, 2019 12:52:13 GMT
I am with Pip 100% although happy to go with the majority (it's not like Brexit)
the below is from a fintech article in 2017
I am not convinced this is the case so if not why the hell not ?
I think it is imperative we stop the administrators holding the purse strings and effect a system which ensure they are motivated to return our money rather then collect it for their back pocket - having been a member of *otary I have seen far too many cosy friendships with backhanders all over the place.
I would say ditch the loan book and give the lenders a pro-rata return e.g. have a pot - take out the administrators fee and give good loan holders back a greater % than bad loan holders.
I see no point in winning a pyrrhic victory here - just get what we can out of this horlicks and move on - just my opinion
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