gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Nov 5, 2018 20:03:46 GMT
I think you may have misinterpreted the gustapher post. I'm sure they will confirm one way or the other. I would be interested in hearing ablrate give some context to what seems curious pricing. Oh, are we just talking about the new loans? Yeah sorry was just talking about the very recent ones that didn't fill. It was just idle speculation about who keeps releasing the new chunks at such big discounts. RE "Offers are shifting" I just mean of the 5 figure chunks that keep getting released they are being bought at a reasonable pace (so they are shifting/selling), but then more hits the SM soon after. 5K of 113 has gone in last few hours for example.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Nov 5, 2018 18:04:38 GMT
<Booooop> <Booooop> <Booooop> Sorry that's just me backing up the truck I think you need a bigger truck. Yeah - I'm already walking funny because I've been so busy filling my boots. I've got loans stuffed in my pockets, under my hat, now wondering how much I can fit down my pants. It does make me cautious, but people are buying - lots of people - and those offers are shifting. I wonder if Ablrate are underwriting themselves and are just taking a smaller fee on the remaining loan parts to get them off the books. They'd still turn a profit at these levels.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Nov 4, 2018 14:34:41 GMT
<Booooop> <Booooop> <Booooop> Sorry that's just me backing up the truck Yes, but are you loading or unloading? 113 @ 96% I prefer 111 of the two battery loans due to the longer length and the fact it is amortising but at 96% 113 was over 17% yield with 18 months on the clock. It means either someone knows something I don't (in which case I'll look like a mug) or it's a no-brainer buying opportunity. My view is unless something goes wrong with the borrower or ABL keep releasing new loans without waiting a bit for things to balance out then I think the current buyers market will be temporary, slowly correcting over the next few months. If not then I'm happy to gamble at that rate based on the borrowers track record to date. Taken a few small nibbles of 114 but at much smaller amounts. Even that was offering over 14.5% earlier and for all the hate about second hand car loans I'm happy to take a position for that return. The other second hand car loans have all made me good money so far at lower rates so although not investing heavily happy to grab the odd bargain. Note however my strategy is purely contrarian based on sentiment. I know only as much as everyone else so "backing up the truck" is possibly an exaggeration. I'm not all-in, just accumulating at prices I think will change over the next few months.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Nov 4, 2018 13:21:09 GMT
<Booooop> <Booooop> <Booooop> Sorry that's just me backing up the truck
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Oct 10, 2018 10:55:14 GMT
Hope they don't overload the SM with too many of these battery loans.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Sept 14, 2018 10:06:02 GMT
Most people only learn the hard way when it comes to investing. Worse is when they blame others for their mistakes (very common on this forum) as it means they will only repeat the mistakes in other markets or sectors. I say this from experience.
In my mid-20's I lost the entire deposit I'd saved for a house on (wait for it... this is so embarrassing) ethanol stocks. Yeah... I was all in - multiple stocks in one asset class in one sector that in hindsight made zero sense to begin with. At the time it was terrible but having just turned 40 with a lot more to lose now I try and view it more constructively as a learning experience. It still hurts even thinking about it - ouch!
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Sept 11, 2018 10:30:58 GMT
Really hard to assess the risk here... The only thing bugging me is the depreciation of the asset given the sharp reduction in lithium ion costs projected over next few years. My head hurts thinking about all the variables to consider. My gut says to go in but I'm not entirely sure why
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Sept 7, 2018 9:28:34 GMT
I regard the security on 108 as diaphanous, but the amount of cash lent provides ample working capital.
Props for teaching me a new word - "diaphanous" - love it.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Sept 6, 2018 17:34:50 GMT
My view also. Plus, with c. £4m of loans “due” to repay by the end of the year, that could further boost SM demand. Exactly! ABL is not likely to be a subject to mass exodus in near future. Out of platforms I use, ABL is the most stable in 10%+ club. Time will tell but I don't think trusting ABL's DD or the above thinking is wise. I do like ABL and have been in way before the recent surge but just remember: - Everyone was saying the exact same thing about MT before that blew up. - One bad default anywhere on the platform and that sentiment will evaporate in an instant. - SM Premiums have been dropping over recent weeks. - Assets are not sufficient to cover this loan if the business goes under (you'd be looking at losing at least 60% of capital based on worst case valuation) and as we have seen elsewhere doing DD like reading accounts and going on CH is of limited value if a director is adept at playing games. Personally I'm with registerme on this one. I'll admit I'm not being scientific or rational about this but care homes have been on my avoid list ever since my early days on FC. Care homes, lawyers, architects... all sound businesses on paper that just went *poof* in the night. I'm sitting out based purely on that but good luck to all who invest.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Aug 13, 2018 5:37:02 GMT
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gustapher
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Likes: 267
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Post by gustapher on Aug 1, 2018 10:39:52 GMT
We have looked a solution that has stage bid limits (£100 for an hour, £500 for an hour, £3,000 for an hour and then no bid limits - obviously depending on the loan size) and are discussing whether that is viable. Sounds horrible. Ignore the noise Ablrate. Keep doing what you do best and don't change things fundamentally because of a vocal few.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Jul 26, 2018 15:58:10 GMT
They are going with option 2.
Don't agree with it personally but let's see what happens.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Jul 18, 2018 21:09:26 GMT
I don't get the enthusiasm, with all the current complaints about quality of security across platforms a loan mainly secured by a pending (ie, not yet and may never be in place) patent seems exceedingly weak. As a small punt the company doesn't seem too bad, although a lot of hype, and little substance. Yeah, I'd love to understand the perceptions of people who are investing in this. Note, it's not that I think any of you are necessarily wrong, it's just that we are looking at things differently (perhaps for different reasons). Even if I don't change my mind about this loan I might learn something in the process..... I reckon many are speculating on making money on the SM by holding a few months and then flipping. With so many P2P sites looking completely bombed out right now, the hot money has to go somewhere. Ablrate is one of the few platforms that still looks solid. The fact nearly all loans on the SM can be sold profitably right now without even making an offer makes it a great environment for doing this. The SM shows money is flowing in. Personally I'm going to pass because of the security. I can't really quantify it and because of this I'd be worried about facing total wipeout rather than a haircut if the loan went south. If the security were better or at least more tangible I'd buy-to-flip myself, but with the downside potentially being unlimited the risk/reward feels a little out of whack.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Jun 5, 2018 10:38:10 GMT
Why would anyone buy the 2nd charge loan at 12% when there’s plenty of the 1st charge loan available at 12%. Why would Lendy launch the 2nd charge under those circumstances, taking us for mugs, yet again. There’s not a snowball’s chance in hell they’re going to get the 1.7m they’re looking for. Lendy la la land. Agreed, also correct me if I'm wrong & apologies if it's been mentioned before but first charge loan holders are getting 12.5% with bonus accrual. So first charge loan has got to go first surely. You are all using too much logic. A quick look at the investor activity tab of each loan shows this is not the case. Hardly anything for the 1st charge and plenty of activity on the 2nd charge. Why? 1) The second charge is at the top of the page (this is anecdotal but I'm convinced many people don't scroll down. When DFL006 was extended to 365 days recently it moved more slowly than the other 300+ day loans nearer the top. You could argue it is the loan details causing this but I'm not so sure.) 2) The first charge is listed as negative days remaining and the second charge positive 200+ days 3) Existing lenders with lots in the first charge know that buying more of the first charge doesn't help the job complete. Personally I think either the first or second charge loan look decent but I know I'm in the minority.
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gustapher
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Lendy (L) in Administration
Podcast
May 27, 2018 11:22:53 GMT
Post by gustapher on May 27, 2018 11:22:53 GMT
As someone who makes videos professionally I lament when I see stuff like this. For the sake of spending a bit of money and producing something proper that sends out the right message they have put out something amateur that has the opposite effect.
I see this all the time, even from FTSE100 companies. Let's do it ourselves in-house for free - it's fine we have no microphones because, y'know, 'Youtube'. These people are morons. They are wasting their time putting out any content when it is as badly made as this.
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