gustapher
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Post by gustapher on May 8, 2018 16:38:47 GMT
So... although the decision is not 100% made, on balance and when looking at the bigger picture and my entire portfolio of loans, there is a certain logic to funding the second charge over the first. I'll be happy to do my bit towards funding the second charge loan. I'll even consider doing substantially more than "my normal bit" if they incentivise it with cashback or a higher interest rate... However, that's all academic until or unless Lendy get some money flowing out of the other end of the pipeline in repayments, as lack of liquid funds on the platform is my current main obstacle (I'm already invested considerably in excess of my intended per-platform limit, and the only funds I can re-invest are those which get repaid by Lendy. If Lendy DARE to tell us off for not funding the new loan, I'll quite firmly put the ball right back in their court. I completely agree regarding telling us off on DFL019 that time. I pointed this out on my call to them. I think they have the message now loud and clear. As you say, they just need to get the recoveries/repayments going asap.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on May 8, 2018 15:34:06 GMT
Despite my general caution on Lendy I probably will pile into this second charge loan. To me this looks as good a bet as any on the platform as long as enough people fund it. Why when there's £217,000+ available on the secondary market in the first charge loan? I've bought some of the first charge from the SM already. I agree that logically it seems safer but the fact is all the first charge parts (including mine) are at increased risk unless the second charge gets funded. It is a dilemma. Do I buy the first charge and hope others buy the second charge (which increases net funding for the project by zero) or do I buy the second charge and increase the the chances of the entire project completing but risk lower recovery if it all goes pear-shaped? Ultimately the parts on the SM are all funded and they are just people looking to get out. With sentiment as it is even if I had 200k spare I'm sure there would be plenty of others lining up to sell. It achieves nothing. The project looks good to me so if it gets over the line then it would be a thumping win for Lendy even with the other problems. It could transform the platform and sentiment overnight. So... although the decision is not 100% made, on balance and when looking at the bigger picture and my entire portfolio of loans, there is a certain logic to funding the second charge over the first.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on May 8, 2018 14:50:18 GMT
Despite my general caution on Lendy I probably will pile into this second charge loan. To me this looks as good a bet as any on the platform as long as enough people fund it.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on May 8, 2018 11:13:22 GMT
i put a fairly large amount into this in early feb 2017 so am not happy to risk any more on this project. my question is this. my funds are in a first charge loan. this next one is a second charge are lendy going to role exsisting investors into this somehow. No, you will still be in the first charge loan. The second charge loan is just that - separate and ranking behind the first charge.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Apr 30, 2018 7:41:31 GMT
Sorry if a few think myself and a few others are being constantly neg re Lendy, just that I'm struggling to see and share the bulls enthusiasm. Looking at the shear amount for sale on the sm then I can only think the bullish contingent have loans in queues for sale on the sm? If anyone would like to explain reasons other than above for their sanguine outlook, then I'm all ears. It is nothing to do with having loans in queues on the SM. The problems with the constant negativity are: 1) Endless speculation adds no value. It is increasingly difficult to find useful DD posts to help with investment decisions. Therefore it lowers the value of the forum for everyone. 2) It affects investor sentiment and therefore liquidity. While not the initial catalyst, it will be a factor in the severity and length of the problems. 3) Now that Lendy are showing signs of engaging with investors and the forum you are actively discouraging it. 4) Where improvements are made they are likely to be missed or ignored by investors. 5) You increase platform risk and therefore investment risk for everyone. To be clear, nobody has any issue with posts that are negative or critical if they are based on fact. Warning investors of genuine risks is a good thing, but this is not what you are doing. The majority of these posts are just people making things up. The last two are perfect examples: "Looking at the shear amount for sale on the sm then I can only think the bullish contingent have loans in queues for sale on the sm?" - Speculation to discredit anyone who disagrees with you. What value does this add and what is your agenda? Don't say "to help investors" as you are clearly doing the opposite. "In my view LY management preferred to spend their time and money sponsoring cowes week rubbish whilst they trousered a hefty wedge." - As above, pointless negative speculation. This is not about being sanguine or bullish or anything else. It is about being objective.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Apr 28, 2018 18:47:54 GMT
Little point in engaging with Hazel as quite clearly Lendy numero uno cheerleader. Just trying to counterbalance what I see as overly negative and pessimistic comments which I think are unfair to Lendy. It is appreciated and I would try to help more but I find the endless negativity here draining. Easier to visit the forum less and focus on making money. So many people are blinded by their cognitive bias. They won't change their mind no matter how much Lendy improves.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Apr 19, 2018 20:18:46 GMT
The definitions are all very clumsy and patronising.
I know plenty of 'qualified' financial advisors and professional investors who don't know their a*se from their elbow. It always comes down to the same thing: "Oh it's all so complicated and boring. Best just give us everything and we'll deal with it for you for a small fee that will add up to a huge amount over 20 years... we won't however guarantee anything and will take the money regardless of performance - thanks xxx"
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Apr 17, 2018 11:22:06 GMT
I've been investing but pulled out of Ascot at the last minute. Not overwhelmed by the pipeline either but will assess each deal as it comes.
I haven't lost any money yet but the lack of SM keeps me from investing more. One for diversification and potentially to keep an eye on if they ever deliver on their promise of an SM with international exposure.
The problem they have is they claim their deals are superior (presumably in terms of risk/reward) to that of competitors but this is hard to assess based on the length of time they have been running and the amount of info provided in the deal room.
I can't, for example, see how Ascot is only 8%. It is a development loan with 56% GDV selling units into a market that is unproven. Given the shenanigans on other platforms with valuations I would be wanting 12%. I can't see how this deal is better/safer than a Lendy/MT development loan. That said I'm not an expert so maybe I missed something.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Apr 3, 2018 9:50:20 GMT
Quick someone start a new thread:
"Lendy interest run definitely bust this time Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme Chicken Little let's all toss ourselves into the abyss... Aaaaahhh"
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Mar 22, 2018 20:09:10 GMT
trying to invest some interest in this one and keep getting this "Unexpected error occurred: Transaction (Process ID 75) was deadlocked on lock resources with another process and has been chosen as the deadlock victim. Rerun the transaction." Same here... made a lot of attempts. Feel like I'm trying to get tickets to a festival.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Mar 14, 2018 8:53:29 GMT
As of now I'll be passing on this one too. My issues are: 1) Location. I know Cardiff well and it is too far from Cardiff University. I spoke to my business partner who is an architect in Cardiff and he said: - Location for University of South Wales is good but agreed it was no good for Cardiff Uni of the Metropolitan Uni.
- He said that whole area is ear-marked for redevelopment and some building work has already started
- There is a new massive uni building near the location and another one scheduled to be built
- "Word on the street" was that Cardiff purpose built student accommodation is nearing saturation point (he said DFL006 was ok because of lack of competition in that area)
- Even if they are unable to sell as student accommodation, as long as build completes there will be long-term demand in the area for that property - almost certainly as a change of use to a hotel which he felt was the next potential "bubble" in construction in the area.
Not as bad as my first instinct but definitely worse than DFL006 on paper at least. Bottom line is there are lots of much better locations for purpose built student blocks already being developed so this relies on continued overseas demand.
2) Valuation. Mentions an undersupply of student accommodation but I disagree with method used to calculate this. - It states "Cardiff has an undersupply of Student accommodation with only 21% provision of bed spaces to full time students."
- It rationalises this statistic by saying there are 51,000 full time students, 14000 purpose built student accommodation beds and only 3000 more in the pipeline.
- This makes the false assumption that all full time students will want to live in purpose built accommodation - some will live at home, some will prefer houses.
- As per posts on DFL006 the rents payable at £600-£800 pcm compare with £300-£350 in an HMO house. The students paying these rates are mainly going to be from overseas.
- There is no way when there is alternative accommodation of comparable quality at half price that all students will want to live in these blocks.
- Already we have seen student developments in Cardiff in poor locations change use due to lack of demand.
- More importantly some of the comparable yields mentioned on similar blocks are based on "guaranteed yields" and are therefore not reflective of exposure to true market forces.
I don't think this is deliberately misleading just highly positive spin - this is a sales pitch essentially. The whole thing is reliant on overseas demand both in terms of students using the blocks and investors buying them. I'm not convinced it is a "mainstream asset class" amongst UK investors but I could be wrong. If you are comfortable buying and holding to term it may be worth a punt, but for me there are plenty of other better opportunities currently on the SM. Don't invest based purely on 2% cashback and nothing else.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Mar 9, 2018 22:42:34 GMT
I go down the self-select ISA/SIPP route. I prefer not to use funds because of the fees but I agree it is very difficult to time the market. While I actively manage my accounts I try to resist the urge to look at it frequently and over trade. Typically I buy and hold with a 1-5 year time horizon and so trading is infrequent. This gets around the problem of trying to compete with pro investors/algos. Buy to invest and not trade. Passive funds have worked well over the last 10 years but that may not hold true going forward. I view active management/investment skills as the same as any other area of personal development - something to work on and improve slowly over time.
I'm no expert but my tips would be:
1) Position size. Maintain discipline regarding the amount of a single stock/fund you own and the total amount invested in stocks relative to other asset classes. If the market crashes other investment classes often compensate which helps me to sleep easy.
2) Treat "cash" as a valuable asset class/investment position in its own right. Always have 10-20% cash as "dry powder". While it gets eroded by inflation stock markets will generally correct at least 10% once a year and every 7-10 years potentially more i.e. 20-40%. As these sell-offs happen invest the cash. When the market recovers or is doing well ensure you build the cash position back up. This reduces the skill required in stock picking as everything you buy will generally be better value.
3) This is the hardest part - a contrarian mindset. Buy when there is fear and sell when there is complacency. Easier said than done but the 20% cash position tip really helps with this. Generally there will always be a reversion to the mean so invest with that in mind. A good example would be Brexit. I invested my entire cash position in the days after the referendum because despite all the Chicken Little's running around in the media I knew that the world would keep turning and Britain would almost certainly be ok long term. Nearly all those purchases are up between 20% and 50%. As the market has risen I trimmed those positions and saved more cash to get myself back to 20%. I have made a few further investments during the recent 10% drop but still have plenty of cash left if it drops even further.
I think all these points are relevant to P2P. For example:
Tip 1 - In P2P you want to have similar discipline in terms of individual loan size and overall P2P investment levels vs other asset classes. This is the easiest way to sleep easy at night. Tip 2 - Forget "cash drag" and see it as a valid investment position. Keep dry powder for when everyone freaks out and good loan opportunities present themselves. Tip 3 - Be contrarian and try to be objective. For example I think the negativity towards Lendy is overdone and there are opportunities there. I think people who invest in MT simply because of "good communications" and because they "like them" are now paying for this mistake. Use the overly emotional people as barometers of investor sentiment and try to do the opposite without contravening tip 1.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Mar 9, 2018 21:39:47 GMT
Can someone confirm where Property Crowd rank as regards to the security...it talks about the bond issuer having first charge ...but then states the main lender having first charge. I note that in the case of default we are in the hands of the principal lender as regards to control and direction. Anyone else interested in this one? I'm in for a moderate amount. Property Crowd are equal 1st charge with the main lender (RF). If you go into the Dashboard and go to the section on "Underlying Loan Facilty" there is a bullet covering the deal structure and capital structure which you can click on to see how it works. Our bonds are held in an SPV which is independently controlled by the people behind PC. Our bonds rank equally with the main lender/RF bonds which means in a default event we are treated equally. If that happened, you are correct RF would have control and direction of the recovery process but as our interests are aligned and the SPV is independently controlled it should be ok. As a general rule I'm investing smallish amounts in PC on a regular basis (£2k-£3k per issue with a some variation based on the rate/proposition). I will increase this amount based on: - Development of a working secondary market - Improvements to website/platform functionality over time - Record of repayment/handling of defaults.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Mar 1, 2018 17:19:49 GMT
gustapher information and timelines on moving to full authorisation isn't You are correct they don't provide a timeline but it says they are working proactively to achieve full authorisation. Numerous updates have referenced changes to the platform related to this process. You can read these updates on the website. It also provides the relevant information and numbers on their interim permissions which you can check in a few seconds on google. They are active. This is totally different to Collateral where the permissions lapsed ages ago. I get that everyone is fed up but I don't see what information Lendy are likely to be able to put here on a public forum, particularly when they are still going through the process. You'd have more luck on the phone or emailing them direct.
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gustapher
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Post by gustapher on Mar 1, 2018 16:41:22 GMT
I'm sure that most are aware of the apparent collapse of another platform who apparently had interim authorisation but then didn't / had it withdrawn. A number of other platforms including MT and ABL have tried to give investors some confidence about their stability and living will arrangements yet we don't seem to have anything from LY. Given that they are AFAIK the only major platform operating with interim permission it would be helpful if Lendy Support Paul64 could provide an update and timelines for moving to full FCA authorisation and reconfirm their living will arrangements. I know everyone is a bit tense but all this information is on their website in great detail.
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