fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 1, 2017 14:43:27 GMT
A few brave souls have just started buying into the Panic of the Day.
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 1, 2017 13:32:59 GMT
Now a clearly established Panic of the Day soaring towards the top of the availability chart. Anyone wishing to sell now will certainly have to wait some time. But this is the purpose of consultations and it remains to be seen how serious these issues really are and whether the current selling response is proportionate.
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Sept 30, 2017 14:18:10 GMT
Although I have a holding in this loan, I have taken my eye off the ball and haven't checked progress for a while. So I was rather surprised to see over 50k on the SM when I finally checked today. I thought this was a pretty solid offering and am tempted to pick up some more. But before I do, I was just wondering if anyone is aware of any particular reason why there should be a sizeable chunk available on the SM just now ? Thanks. When this loan recently started jumping up the availability chart, the amount on offer quickly jumped from around 20k to 36k and then to 62k, at which point the sales dropped off markedly. Shortly after that the availability dropped to around 55k without any corresponding sales reported under recent investments. As subsequent sales slowly reduced the amount to around 50k, more sales were added to take the availability back to around 55k for some time. This all points to a single seller. This loan has a history of BH sales with very large amounts suddenly appearing on the SM, thus fuelling concerns as to what is happening. On the initial offering it appeared that one investor had bought around 76k just before the loan sold out. Eventually the SM is absorbing everything on offer, as it always has done before. Investors are always keen to buy small amounts when they appear, but sudden large amounts always cause concern and tend to reduce the sales rate, so this is probably why the seller backed off from the 60k plus.
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Sept 22, 2017 10:59:05 GMT
Just fell into the old "try to put your holding up for sale but click the wrong button end up buying more instead" trap! Ah well, at least still earning a little more interest in the sales queue. Well perhaps your subconscious and sensible intuition led you to press the right button !
Lots of negative sentiment out there now following the supercars default ... Means lots of good stuff coming online for you to feast on Looks like someone ate a good chunk of Lancs Park for breakfast this morning ! Wigan is becoming universally popular too ... as for MH ... well take your pick there's no need to hurry there as none of it is shifting much at all now ! Liverpool is still flying out the door as if there's no tomorrow so you will have to be quick for that still ... and of course Manchester Road is no slouch at the moment ! Solihull doesn't hang around much either even Porsche and that Merc pop up for a second or two and then fly away So is it even slowly turning into a buyer's market now ?
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Sept 19, 2017 16:56:45 GMT
I sold all my supercar loans just a few days ago, ironically this was because the MH sales queues had become too long and I wanted to buy some other loans on the SM. My supercar loans just flew out and were no problem selling at all, so I was able to buy the loans I had in mind before they went. So although I now have no personal interest in these defaulted loans the problem will be that the SM sentiment will become even more negative and other loans such as MH will become even harder to sell. Everyone will be wondering what will be next so they will be rather unwilling to increase their holdings in anything else for the time being.
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Sept 18, 2017 23:46:20 GMT
Update on the site Summary "there is no update until next week" Suspect they are waiting on some sort of decision from the borrower Well this seems to be the fundamental problem here in that making any firm decision is proving very difficult indeed. All borrowers here should provide a Mission Statement ....
" A one-sentence statement describing the reason for their loan, used to guide decisions, priorities, and actions "
Sometimes it seems that the reason is just to make a profit in the quickest and most easy way ... whatever that appears to be at any instant in time ... and of course this changes as time goes by ..
Meanwhile 1579 availability soars to a new record high of well over 100k ....
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Sept 18, 2017 19:31:49 GMT
Investors have been moving out of MH for some time now, much as they did for AE and for similar reasons. There were small queues every day last week but these had cleared quickly the following day. So each day investors sold small amounts and the SM was easily able to absorb them on a regular basis.
The situation changed on the 15th and 16th and an inspection of the recent investment figures shows this to be the case for nearly all the MH drawdowns. The previous buying interests dropped significantly with the result that the steady sales demand could not be met and the queues slowly extended as a consequence.
So the question is what happened on the 15th and 16th to change the SM sentiment ? The SM responds as much to sentiment as it does reason and in some cases even more so. In this way it is easy to see how sentiment is changing over time, especially when there is no obvious logical reason for the changes.
Looking at the updates at this time there are clearly two which could easily have affected market sentiment. The exits for prestby and the supercars were starting to look even more uncertain and therefore imposed a more negative overall outlook, which may have led investors to take a more cautious view of buying into a steadily increasing position within MH (and also brundle).
The supercars situation may resolve itself shorty but it is uncertain how long prestby will take. The berk territory at the high availability end of the SM is not just an indication of the size of loans being placed for sale, it is also becoming identified as a sign of loans with a very uncertain future. So as loans drift into this region for one reason or another they become less attractive to potential buyers unless some positive news turns up in the updates. Even this is now questionable as sometime positive updates are quickly followed by negative ones, in which case intense confusion arises and the overall sentiment becomes even worse.
There seems to be no logical reason why MH should be seen as an increasing risk, so the most likely scenario is that reason will eventually prevail and the buying patterns will eventually revert to those previously seen and the existing queues will slowly shorten.
Negative sentiment cannot prevail indefinitely without good reason .
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Sept 17, 2017 13:47:36 GMT
Starting to clog up with brundle and MH so that they are now both wandering into berk territory. Maybe related to the recent growing concerns over some potential exit problems. It is definitely not the strong sellers market that it was just a week ago and buyers are becoming very selective indeed.
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Sept 15, 2017 21:44:34 GMT
There seems to be less than 1k invested today. If it carries on at this rate it will never fly. Perhaps most of the ready money is going into the new higher rate loans at the moment and these look as if they will take some time to fill too ...
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Sept 15, 2017 21:26:06 GMT
Are many people here using this new option ?
How are the fees calculated and applied to this option ? In the standard daily returns statement the fees are applied to the sum of the paid and accrued interest in order to calculate the net return.
Is a new statement format used for this option to show the Balance and Returns at the end of each month ?
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fogey
Posts: 171
Likes: 104
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Post by fogey on Sept 14, 2017 17:39:02 GMT
Some fish n chips popped up this afternoon to relieve the boredom of the endless MH offerings
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fogey
Posts: 171
Likes: 104
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Post by fogey on Sept 10, 2017 0:43:25 GMT
flip flop flip flop.a fickle minded investor should not take up a 2million loan. sounds like a bistable to me .... or should it be bipolar ?
well at least a computer always knows what state it is in !
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fogey
Posts: 171
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Post by fogey on Sept 9, 2017 18:06:13 GMT
The borrower has been very unlucky. This is the second time a potential purchaser has dropped out after negotiations were well advanced. I was lucky and sold out yesterday as I had already become very dizzy with the recent antics. But I suspect there are a lot of unlucky buyers out there now who bought in on the previous update expecting to get a safe 13% and then get the investment back in just a few days.
Now all the tranches have joined those berks at the top of the SM availability charts and I guess that qualifies for a better Panic of the Day than the last one which was developing just before the previous update ...
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fogey
Posts: 171
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Post by fogey on Sept 9, 2017 17:31:44 GMT
There was a lot of MH and brundle earlier which was going nowhere fast until someone came in around 5pm and bought the lot !
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Aug 31, 2017 1:16:12 GMT
Morning, 96) Just awaiting the green light from the solicitors that they are in receipt of all signed documents and then we will announce. Five ... Four ... Three...Two...One .........Thunderbirds Are Go !!!
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