p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Nov 29, 2019 9:29:40 GMT
I've done some calculations below on the sustainability of this. Would be grateful for comments /corrections for others, especially from Matthew and r00lish67 . On 1 June 2019, the cash element of the Shield stood at £1.4m. It has fallen by almost exactly £1m in 6 months - about £160k a month. So, assuming things carry on more less as they have been, contributions need to increase by £160k a month to maintain the Shield as it's current (low) level. The loan book covered by the Shield currently stands at £92.5m. £160k / £92.5m is 0.17% and so contributions need by this much per month. LW are helpfully contributing an extra 0.4% per year (so 0.03% per month). The drop in rates for new loans is about 0.1% per month. This suggests there is still an overall shortfall of 0.04% per month. This is within the levels of uncertainty for this sort of thing, but bearing in mind the cash element of the Shield is already small, this still all feels risky. On top of this, there are further factors increasing the risk: - the insurance element has been dropped which would increase the burden on the Shield. Matthew , is this saving being diverted to the Shield? - the haircut for existing loans is smaller at roughly 0.03% per month (as I understand it) suggesting the Shield will fall at a faster rate in the short term. - the composition of loans will increase in risk over time - suggesting more Shield support needed - as the older cohort of loans (which are less risky) mature. Thoughts?
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p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Oct 1, 2019 13:28:21 GMT
I think people may be surprised at the next election results. May be totally wrong but suspect Conservatives will do a lot better than people think and I think will win a majority. Wouldn't be surprised if Lib Dems beat Labour, especially in Metropolitan areas. Theresa May was one of the worst campaigners in history and had an election manifesto seemingly designed to alienate her key voters. Cummings won't allow the same mistakes to be made, I think he will have a clear manifesto with three promises: Get Brexit Done, More Police, More Money for NHS. I think once the circus of parliament is over and campaigning begins Cummings will totally outmanoeuvre the other parties. Cummings is not every bodies cup of tea, but he is a fantastic strategic thinker, precisely what is needed in the current climate. The Conservatives are currently favourites to win a majority, so I don't think this would be too surprising. Incredibly depressing, but not surprising. r00lish67: this might cheer you up: according to Betfair, the Conservatives probably won't win a majority. The probabilities of the various outcomes are: No overall majority: 58% Conservatives [sic] majority: 33% Labour majority: 6% Lib dems majority: 2% Brexit Party majority: 1%
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p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Sept 29, 2019 16:28:17 GMT
Do you not think that the more pertinent part of the story which should be headlined is that the Prime Minister has been implicated in a scandal, rather than leading with an unnamed official from No 10's response to such a story? You mean this story from the day before...? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49859321That (27th) is the "He's been referred" story. The other one (28th) is reporting the response to it. The original story includes the response to it, part way down - but that may well be a later addition. Should it be flagged as such? Probably. I think you make a fair point Adrian, but miss two things: - the initial story to which you refer was up for only a few hours - the second story wasn't one at all. It was an anonymous quote without any evidence at all. And given the referral was made by somebody impartial, there was evidence to refute it The BBC unwittingly ended up as the no.10 press office. I don't think the BBC is deliberately biased - just mistaken and too keen to update stories when nothing new has happened.
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p2pmark
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Chat
Bonds
Sept 22, 2019 7:06:45 GMT
Post by p2pmark on Sept 22, 2019 7:06:45 GMT
I’m currently invest in numerous European p2p sites, nearly always in loans which offer buyback gurantees. This means that implictly, or often explicitly, you’re lending money (unsecured) to the loan originator for a return of, say, 12% p.a.
Investing in risky companies through high yield bonds instead would seem to offer numerous advantages: - There may be tax advantages to investing in a bond? - Much greater transparency - I’d expect the market to be more effiicent, meaning I’m more likley to be paying a “fair” value. I simply don’t know enough about the average Russian loan originator to know whether 12% is a fair return or not - I assume you’re less at risk in terms of the platform going bust? I assume in the case of bonds this wouldn’t affect your return, whereas I don’t fancy my chances of getting money back from a Russian loan originator if Viventor went bust. - In principle, I’d expect the fee to be lower as maybe the overheads associated with a bond to be less than through a p2p platform?
I guess on the other hand: - There is probably more flexibility for loan originators borrowing money through p2p – they can vary the amount they borrow month-month which is much harder through a bond. They will be willing to pay a premium for this. - There will no doubt be many numerous loan originators who don’t offer bonds - I’ve done well investing through these European p2p platforms so far.
With that in mind, I’m interested in investing high-yield bonds. I am quite prepared to take some risk, well aware that I may lose some or all of my capital. With this in mind, I am looking for the following: - High yield / high risk - Needs to be tax efficient. I’m nowhere near the capital gains threshold but am over the zero tax on interest band. I understand you can buy bonds through an IFISA? - Low fees - Currency is £ or Euro - Ideally some kind of tracker if they exist – e..g, the bond equivalent to the FTSE all-share. I don’t believe I would have any edge over the market by doing research and I would like diversification. - Not too fussed about liquidity - happy with 5 year period, but less than 10 years
I’ve tried to do research but haven’t found what I’m looking for. I’m aware of WiseAlpha. But this doesn’t quite meet my criteria in that fees at 1% p.a. (for <£20k) seem high to me - I’m used to about a fifth of that when I invest in shares. Further, the way to get the kind of return / risk profile I’m looking for is to select individual bonds which isn’t what I want to do. (As I say I ideally want some kind of tracker.)
Apologies for the long post. My questions are:
- Do you agree with the above analysis regarding pros and cons of European p2p / bonds? What’s wrong / missing? - Are you aware of any bond funds / whatever that you think might suit me given the above.
Many thanks for any help you can provide.
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p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Sept 18, 2019 17:06:57 GMT
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p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Sept 7, 2019 13:02:37 GMT
My understanding is that he only lost the case regarding disclosing lenders' details. He could still pursue his broader case that the original terms were not legally binding in some way.
But I get the impression his case was spurious and he was trying to bully UB by threatening the lenders.
I guess his next plan will be to try to do a deal where he drops his case in return for not paying the 42k.
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p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Sept 2, 2019 6:48:31 GMT
I asked Robocash about the impact of Brexit for UK lenders. Here's what they said:
"Unfortunately, we will have to cancel ongoing contracts with our UK investors and they won’t be able to purchase loans after the UK leaves the EU. We apologize for this inconvenience!"
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p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Sept 1, 2019 14:28:04 GMT
Do you think they'll still be good loans if the originator went bust?
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p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Aug 31, 2019 10:37:44 GMT
According to this, it's indirect: p2pmarketdata.com/iuvo-group/There's buyback so I think understanding the financial viability of the loan provider is more important. According to explorep2p.com/viventor/, ibancar don't score very highly when compared with the better Mintos loan providers.
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p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Aug 24, 2019 8:04:35 GMT
You can see money in/out of account in the Transactions page linked from your home page. They show up as "bank payment" positive or negative mixed in with buying or loan parts and repayments. I update my spreadsheet manually but the info is there if I need to check. But do you need to go through each page? I have 41 pages.
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p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Aug 22, 2019 6:28:56 GMT
... This will send compliance offers across the continent into a lather, as how do you comply when there are no rules to comply with? So everyone will be making it up as they go along. What makes you say this? The sites aren't regulated by the FCA anyway, so why would anything be different? Each platform already seems to have slightly different rules. Some specifically require being a EU citizen, others only mention having a bank account in the EU. I think this is mainly about SEPA. This won't be affected by Brexit no-deal: www.europeanpaymentscouncil.eu/news-insights/news/european-payments-councils-decision-paper-brexit-and-uk-psps-participation-sepa). Also note that I've asked a number of euro p2p platforms and they all say they don't see why Brexit - deal or no deal - would make a difference.
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p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Aug 22, 2019 6:14:48 GMT
Iuvo also looks promising and have a generous sign up bonus of up to €90. I'd be happy to provide a referral.
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p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Aug 21, 2019 18:17:23 GMT
I'm looking at Peerberry, Grupeer and Viventor.
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p2pmark
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Lending Works (LW)
The shield
Aug 3, 2019 8:06:46 GMT
Post by p2pmark on Aug 3, 2019 8:06:46 GMT
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p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Aug 1, 2019 18:51:34 GMT
Based on this (https://www.europeanpaymentscouncil.eu/news-insights/news/european-payments-councils-decision-paper-brexit-and-uk-psps-participation-sepa), I think payments will continue as usual.
I use Revolut to exchange from £ to Euro before depositing into any euro sites.
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