aju
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Post by aju on Sept 27, 2017 8:25:58 GMT
I checked today's statement and despite having large sums of money in the queue lending tailed off to ZERO both mine and Mrs aju's ISA investment's on the 25/9/2017. It had slowed down quite a bit over the previous few days but just wondered did anyone else lend anything in the ISA side on the 25th.
Quite a bit on the 26th though so perhaps there are some delays in the systems.
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bob2014
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Post by bob2014 on Sept 27, 2017 9:29:50 GMT
I did not get any loans on the 25th. I am trying to lend into the ISA Core and am finding the conversion rate very slow I find my money is quickly moved to the "matching to borrowers" but sits there for ages before becoming real loans. I am presently sitting at just over £1500 and will add another £500 when it gets below that. The last time I loaded £500 was on the 10 days ago (17th). Prior to about start of September money queued in "New Money" then was suddenly gobbled and only spent a few days in "matching".
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Post by point5clue on Sept 27, 2017 16:56:54 GMT
yes - same for me several days of no substantial change - hopefully some quality borrowers will come along soon
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aju
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Post by aju on Sept 28, 2017 0:26:09 GMT
It started back up on 26th - 6 loans all safeguarded (<£10) and 4 £10 ones on 27th. The 25th was the only day I seemed to get no lending on since I started ISA on 16th June. Took 4 days to start lending and then it has been every day since then. I have been added £1000 every time the queue gets just below a £100 to limit lending to £10 chunks.
There seem to be certain days in the month when the lending goes really fast and others where it slows to a trickle.
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Post by misotu on Oct 2, 2017 10:25:49 GMT
Mr Misotu's lending slowed to a trickle way back in August and has never recovered. I haven't been able to add significant new money for over six weeks. At one point last week, he was lending so slowly that repayments pushed his funds on offer up over the £2000 threshhold.
At a time when average queue/match in Core has consistently been under 72 hours (according to the weekly statements), he's had new money unlent for weeks and weeks. I am currently in detailed discussions with them about this.
Most of the replies I've had so far a) contradict each other, b) make no sense anyway and c) answer a question I've not asked. But the last response I had (while still not addressing the question I asked!) was much better quality and provided some interesting information.
My Core ISA was 0.3% below the projected rate of return. Because of this, apparently, the algorithm prioritised my lending with a view to improving my overall rate of return.
What actually happened was I lent out the remaining £9,000 or so of my allowance extremely rapidly - up to £2000 per day and could easily have lent more. But here's the curious thing. I was matched largely to low-yield secondary market loans and now my whole ISA allowance is lent out with a projected yield of 3.4% - *still* 0.3% below average! Hard to see how Zopa plans to address this now, given that no further new funds can be added, but the algorithm (and Zopa) appears broadly to be confusing speed of lending with yield. I would have thought they'd need to deliver a basket of loans with a projected return of around 4.1-4.2% to lift my overall projected return to about average. And I'd have thought this would in fact slow down my lending speed, since fewer loans would be eligible for matching to my funds. But according to Zopa, lending almost half my ISA allowance at lightning speed and at below projected is the algorithm "working correctly".
Since Mr Misotu's Core ISA has a projected return of 0.2% above the average, I wonder if his account, conversely, has been "deprioritised"? Zopa haven't actually addressed this yet, but his lending speed is really ridiculously slow. And oddly, even though there have been a zillion low-priced secondary market loans around, he continues to match to higher-rate loans and, unlike me, hardly ever to a loan returning <2%. So his projected return remains stubbornly above-average.
Our discussions continue. They did actually make this comment: "That being said, we have taken your experience into consideration and have already started making adjustments to the matching system to limit the impact of this behaviour in the future and I would like to thank you for bringing this situation to our attention."
So they seem to be acknowledging that there's a problem. But since they didn't indicate which bit of my "experience" was relevant, nor to which ISA account they referred, I have absolutely no idea what they consider the problem to be.
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 2, 2017 13:02:21 GMT
Very interesting, I too have noticed a slow down but I put that down to all my lending is being limited to £10 chunks. I wonder if they are checking the lending rate before they lending each amount or whether they are blocking the rate for a bunch of lending. One thing I would caution against is lending too much at once. 9000 means lending in 90 chunks. Let's assume there will be defaults. 3 £90 defaults in a month will be bit of shock to the system. Of course one could argue also that there might be higher chance of defaults with 27 £10 loans than with 3. I guesstime will tell.
Whether Zopa algorithms are correct remains to be seen. It does look like they need to watch out with multiple dependencies in the loan rate determination.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 2, 2017 14:44:54 GMT
As with any other investment, more diversification (smaller chunks, in Z's case) just reduces the deviation from whatever the mean turns out to be .. the FC site used to have some nice graphs showing the effect in detail. Doesn't affect the mean value, but reduces the chance you will be luckier/unluckier than average. You can even work out how much it reduces the chance (some math required).
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 2, 2017 17:02:39 GMT
ah deviation - bit too far in the distant past to remember how to do hard sums like that anymore ;-) or even have the will for it either.
As we found out also from 2007/2008 not too many peoples hard sums got it right either.
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Post by misotu on Oct 3, 2017 9:16:14 GMT
One thing I would caution against is lending too much at once. 9000 means lending in 90 chunks. I always lend in £10 chunks and have done so since 2011 - that's one of the reasons why I was so exasperated when Mr Misotu's repayments pushed his funds on offer over £2000 (he was lending out more slowly than repayments were coming back). I lent £9,000 in around a week by topping up daily. Way more than 900 matches, because around 75% were secondary market loans, which gives you a feel for how fast my funds were shooting out of the door. I am pretty sure I could have lent even faster if I'd topped up more frequently than once a day. You might take the view that "whether the Zopa algorithm is correct remains to be seen". My view is that it demonstrably is not functioning correctly when it takes action specifically designed to *uplift rate* but which delivers no improvement in rate whatsoever on a largish sum lent out in the smallest chunks possible. That, quite frankly, approaches my definition of "broken". My ISA loanbook is £20,128 diversified over 2381 loans. Sufficient, I would have thought, to minimise deviation from the norm pretty effectively.
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 3, 2017 11:05:26 GMT
sincere apologies i misunderstood about the £9000 lending level.
I went back to my lending rate tables to see how it was for me as I have been lending most days some a trickle some a torrent. I reloaded all my spreadsheets and find that they are now trashed with the latest files and borrower id linkages have all gone. Sadly I can't get a true lending rate as my only overview is in my statements master file and it cannot distinguish against old and new money.
You can see more on this trash on my latest thread.
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Post by misotu on Oct 3, 2017 22:03:56 GMT
No worries aju Where Zopa and I differ on all of this is I do accept that accounts will behave a little differently, but I think more than a certain deviation from average isn't acceptable unless the algorithm identifies it and sorts it out effectively over a reasonable timeframe. Most people lending will be fine because statistically they will be getting around the average return. But the algorithm needs to look for the exceptions and deal with them *effectively*. Right now, Zopa's line seems to be "well, you are 0.3% below projected average for Core, so the algorithm has prioritised your account and this means it is working correctly". So far so good - but all the algorithm actually did carry on lending out all of the rest of my funds at 0.3% below projected ... but very fast! So now I'm stuck with my whole ISA allowance returning below projected and the algorithm continues to lend my repayments super-fast but at low rates. They seem perplexed by the fact that I don't think this is what should be happening I would have been ok with a slightly lower than average speed of lending if it had hiked my overall projected return up to around the average. But that is absolutely not what happened.
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 4, 2017 8:42:01 GMT
checking the ISA loanbook lending for the last few days does seem to have quite a large spread for loan on loan. Lending on the 3rd went as follows according to the loanbook screen.
4.35% (£6.82) 2.34% (£10) 3.00% (£7.16) 2.94% (£8.21) 9.60% (£10.00) 6.89% (£8.10) 15.13%(£10.00) 2.34% (£10.00) 2.34% (£10.00) 2.66% (£6.82) 7.89% (£10.00) 2.34% (£10.00) 15.13% (£10.00) 15.13% (£10.00)
overall average for the day was 5.59%.
one thing I did notice though is that moneywise I have nearly 27% SG covered in 33% of the loans. My lowest loan rate is 0.94% gained on 20/9 in core and my highest rate is 18.8% again in core, I havent lent new money in plus for while so not looked at that yet.
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 6, 2017 10:54:41 GMT
ok misotu I feel your pain a little more see wow - 89 loans - £887 lent in <12 hours
the curious thing for me was many were £10 loans but were from SG relends, they are mostly SG's but its still a bit odd to say the least. I'm hoping that now I have invested all the large sums and only 1000 or so still in queue, it will settle down into a better pattern of slow relending time will tell I guess.
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Post by misotu on Oct 11, 2017 9:41:50 GMT
Yes ... despite having over £1900 on offer since the beginning of time, (and therefore being ahead of you in the queue aju!) Mr Misotu made just 11 matches on the 5th.
Having said that, his lending speed has definitely improved from "glacial" to "arthritic". For example, in the period 21-25 September inclusive he made exactly EIGHT matches. Fewer than two matches a day for five days when the average queue/match speed was 48 hours, according to the weekly statement.
I sent a somewhat gargling (but polite!) follow-up to my existing formal complaint at that point ...
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 11, 2017 13:20:38 GMT
Trouble is the lending speed was rocket like but the rates were not that great to be honest. I'd be happier to lend a lot slower and at more stable rates and hopefully higher. It was on target but there were more low ones than high ones and it only takes afew high ones to bail out or worse default and the low ones become more dominant, especially when the lending speed smooths out and with lower amounts.
My last £1000 in both mine and Mrs Aju's stayed in the new money queue longer than expected this time. Both were almost down to £0 in the the queue before the £1000 moved into the matching queue.
I can almost finally move onto something else now that I don;t have to keep such a watchful eye on things. Mind you Zopa issues with the reporting etc is keeping me more focused on my monthly spreadsheets - some of that data I keep is affected by the delays and accuracy of statements and i'm loathed to download at the beginning of the new month now they are saying their statements system is still 2 months out.
It will be interesting to see what zopa say about his lending speed if you can share the response it would great to hear their slant.
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