dandy
Posts: 427 
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Post by dandy on Nov 13, 2017 12:56:14 GMT
And the stock market crashing is a bigger risk, and a dead cert at some time. I guess you just do what yer gotta do from looking into your own crystal ball.  According to Warren Buffet Dow will probably reach 100,000 in this generation (say next 20 years) - and who is anyone else to argue. The point being sitting out the market and trying to time it/waiting for a fall is bad strategy. get in, stay in and dont sell out in bad times, just add add add. Simples 
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Post by dan1 on Nov 13, 2017 13:11:00 GMT
And the stock market crashing is a bigger risk, and a dead cert at some time. I guess you just do what yer gotta do from looking into your own crystal ball. According to Warren Buffet Dow will probably reach 100,000 in this generation (say next 20 years) - and who is anyone else to argue. The point being sitting out the market and trying to time it/waiting for a fall is bad strategy. get in, stay in and dont sell out in bad times, just add add add. Simples Trying to time the market, as an active investor would do, is not necessarily a bad strategy. But what I would ask is why do you need to outperform the market (I guess it's analogous to the investor/trader debate in P2P)? I invest passively because I believe in capitalism and believe it will provide a good risk-adjusted return over the long term. I don't fancy trying to beat some of the most highly paid people on the planet, and I'd rather not give them any more of my return than I have to (i.e. keep fees low). Those who actively invest should really benchmark their returns by unitising their portfolios but I fear that most glaze over at the mere mention of unitising.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2017 13:40:59 GMT
I agree with dan1 , I follow a series of strategies and regularly test them against each other, plus you have to take into account any tax implications, right now I don't pay any income tax, I make good money but if I took my winnings as income it would hurt a lot. BTW P2P continues to underperform most of my other strategies (before tax), but it fills a gap in the zero income tax bracket.
Yes you have to test your strategies and even compare your FA. My last FA kept telling me how good his "average performance" was, it just always seemed to be better than that which he was delivering to me, so he had to go. My new FA (manages 20% of total capital) is just about achieving the same rate as I am after fees, which is fine, when I get old I will have built up trust in him so he can manage it all.
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Post by dutchman on Nov 13, 2017 14:23:32 GMT
p2p 18%
stock/etc 30%
land/real estate 31% (not my own house)
cash 10%
crypto 1%
bullion 10%
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Post by dutchman on Nov 13, 2017 14:27:51 GMT
... 5% - P2P, was in around 12 platforms, pulling out of every one now aside from Assetz ... I did have around 50% of my money in P2P 12-18 months ago, I have whipped everything out where I can. Got some lingering with FS, Lend Invest, Lendy, Funding Knight and REBS (although anything that is clawed in from them in particular will be a huge bonus). I have gone from a passionate P2P advocate to very very dubious over the past 12 months in particular. Hi Bluechip, What made you decide for Assetz and not others like estateguru.co , etc? currency?
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Post by investorman on Nov 13, 2017 15:21:56 GMT
but why take the 20-50% hit along the way? What if it goes up by 70% before it drops 50%? Market timing is just gambling. I am in for the long term.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 13, 2017 15:37:06 GMT
... 5% - P2P, was in around 12 platforms, pulling out of every one now aside from Assetz ... I did have around 50% of my money in P2P 12-18 months ago, I have whipped everything out where I can. Got some lingering with FS, Lend Invest, Lendy, Funding Knight and REBS (although anything that is clawed in from them in particular will be a huge bonus). I have gone from a passionate P2P advocate to very very dubious over the past 12 months in particular. Hi Bluechip, What made you decide for Assetz and not others like estateguru.co , etc? currency? Hi Dutchman, I haven't been with every platform and 'Estateguru' isn't one I have looked at to be honest - all of the platforms I was involved with were UK based. I wouldn't touch any new ones (to me) at the moment though as I am waiting for the market to sort itself out and I think bigger things are in play. The reason why i have stuck with Assetz is two fold: 1 - They have profitable business which is rare in this sector and I feel comfortable with their model 2 - They have the instant access account paying a good rate, so I think I will be a bit quicker to react if things go south and get my money out before the majority of the masses. It obviously isn't 100% safe or instant, but I feel a bit more comfortable with them and it's passive which I like now, as I don't want to waste time like I used to researching everything when platforms can just give BS explanations if ever put in a corner There will be people on here 10 times more informed about P2P than me though, so I'm not claiming to be an expert and everybody is in different situations. I'm hoping the correction comes soon so that it flushes out all the weeds and the whole sector gets tidied up. I'll then look at P2P again, but it has a 'Wild West' feel to it at the moment for me. I love a gamble, but when I read about all these new versions of Bitcoin/ICO's and stuff it reminds me of the messiness of P2P - and I'd rather take a watching brief after making a nice profit over the past few years. If Assetz didn't have the account I am invested in I would have pulled out of that platform as well. I just decided on a figure I could write off if I had to and left it in the platform I felt most comfortable with bringing in higher than inflation returns.
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Post by dutchman on Nov 13, 2017 16:20:13 GMT
Hi Bluechip, Thanks for the explanation. I don’t use Assetz but will look into it. (although the problem for me will be the uk pound/euro currency) I agree that a correction is coming, the big problem as always, is timing, it can be tomorrow it can be in another 2 years… But better to find same form of safety. saw this comming by: explorep2p.com/british-p2p-profit/Currently I’m trying out mintos, I found that some loans have collateral but I can’t find a filter option for it. If you download the whole loanbook you can see eg. there are business loans with collateral. So I think the combination of a buyback with collateral looks ok especially with LTV < 50% |
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david42
Member of DD Central
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Post by david42 on Nov 13, 2017 16:51:58 GMT
Currently I’m trying out mintos, I found that some loans have collateral but I can’t find a filter option for it. If you download the whole loanbook you can see eg. there are business loans with collateral. So I think the combination of a buyback with collateral looks ok especially with LTV < 50% If by collateral you mean you want to select asset backed loans, you can filter loans on LTV: For manual investing, LTV is one of the filters in teh column on the left. For auto invest, LTV is included under "additional filters", but the filter is only shown if the lender(s) have asset backed loans.
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Post by ratrace on Nov 13, 2017 19:56:13 GMT
For me
P2P 35% (around 30% of which is now invested in P2P Global and RDL investment trusts with the rest in RS).
Shares 65% ( Invested in three bluechips plus a mix of investment trusts).
Cash and bonds don't interest me at the moment due to the low interest rates.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 13, 2017 20:08:43 GMT
After the next major re-set which I believe is imminent. I'll be all in or the stock-markets, but until that point it's wise in my opinion to stock up on the cash, or at the very least hedge your bets. Throwing a load of money into equities now, thinking that markets will go up long term may be accurate, but why take the 20-50% hit along the way? All depends on how much doom porn you digest I suppose. A lot of intelligent people believe the next one will be a real game changer, so best to keep your options open and take the little hit with inflation in my opinion - but it's all guess work as there a multitude of bubbles that could trigger it at any time. SME insolvencies are increasing in the UK, more now than at any time since 2009 I believe - 27% more businesses are suffering financial distress than this time last year in the UK - that's a good sign that something is wrong, especially as interests rates have been kept low (and this info was before the recent rate rise). Throw in Brexit, government debt, geo-political mischief everywhere you look and we have a recipe for carnage, however much the stock market is propped up at the moment I'm holding back my excess P2P money for the time being. But which cash? Those of us unfortunate to be earning mainly pounds sterling when a (slim) majority of our fellow countrymen seem not too bothered about preserving their value need to diversify out.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 13, 2017 20:12:04 GMT
For all those drastically reducing their P2P investments, where are you putting the liberated cash to prevent it getting devalued by inflation? Surely it isn't all piling into stocks and shares, or overvalued bonds?
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msenanna
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Post by msenanna on Nov 13, 2017 20:20:47 GMT
I'm very new to P2P so:
P2P 5% - over 3 platforms
Cash 45% (DH is very risk adverse & includes 1st 2 years of DH's SIPP drawdown now in cash)
S&S 50% (includes SIPP, personal pension & S&S ISAs)
Quick back of a fag packet calculation as never looked at the % breakdown before
Not aiming to increase my P2P % much more due to the lack of FCA protection and DH's risk adversion. I see P2P more as fun money to see if I can get a better return than cash (not hard) hence only in 3 platforms and all 3 are manual lending. No fun in automatic lending.
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macq
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Post by macq on Nov 13, 2017 20:27:06 GMT
For all those drastically reducing their P2P investments, where are you putting the liberated cash to prevent it getting devalued by inflation? Surely it isn't all piling into stocks and shares, or overvalued bonds? probably yes i would guess as that was the main places of investment with cash before P2p
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Post by bluechip on Nov 14, 2017 2:27:47 GMT
For all those drastically reducing their P2P investments, where are you putting the liberated cash to prevent it getting devalued by inflation? Surely it isn't all piling into stocks and shares, or overvalued bonds? I'm putting mine into Gold, Silver, Begbies Traynor, Shorting the S&P, Football Index, Commodities Trading. I also opened up a USD account and put a lump sum in there just to sit as a hedge against currency as I earn in GBP and my holdings are all in GBP.
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