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Post by delboy711 on Feb 22, 2018 13:01:59 GMT
Starting at 9:21 today I see furious activity in my GBBA2 account with transactions labelled "Exchange loan unit" from one loan to another. Could this be the start of the long awaited tweak to the algorithm? The imbalance in the size of loans in the account is slowly reducing. I shall watch how it progresses with interest.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 22, 2018 13:12:55 GMT
Starting at 9:21 today I see furious activity in my GBBA2 account with transactions labelled "Exchange loan unit" from one loan to another. Could this be the start of the long awaited tweak to the algorithm? The imbalance in the size of loans in the account is slowly reducing. I shall watch how it progresses with interest. Yes it is, see p2pindependentforum.com/thread/11716/slowdown-credited-interestI for one am not impressed with it, as it's increased (rather than reduced) the imbalance in my GBBA2 allocation percentages. chris implies 'working as designed'.
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Post by chris on Feb 22, 2018 13:24:51 GMT
Starting at 9:21 today I see furious activity in my GBBA2 account with transactions labelled "Exchange loan unit" from one loan to another. Could this be the start of the long awaited tweak to the algorithm? The imbalance in the size of loans in the account is slowly reducing. I shall watch how it progresses with interest. Yes it is, see p2pindependentforum.com/thread/11716/slowdown-credited-interestI for one am not impressed with it, as it's increased (rather than reduced) the imbalance in my GBBA2 allocation percentages. chris implies 'working as designed'. Based on the information you gave your account was unusually balanced before so when moving towards the global average it's increased your exposure in a couple of loans. Over the longer term as the account itself is better able to balance itself then the balance in your account will improve again in line with everyone else. Likewise were you to deposit new funds (I know you've said you're not) then this change would help your account rebalance. As more loans draw and new funds come into the account then the overall balance will consistently improve for all lenders.
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ton27
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Post by ton27 on Feb 22, 2018 13:26:20 GMT
Following notification that the "algorithm" was working I invested a further amount (to double the total) in my GBBA - result a worse diversification than previous with one loan (441) having 35% whereas previously the biggest position was just 12%. Fortunately only involves small amounts - £500 - as I have been patiently waiting for the new system to kick in. It looks as if I will be waiting a bit longer!
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Post by chris on Feb 22, 2018 13:33:05 GMT
Following notification that the "algorithm" was working I invested a further amount (to double the total) in my GBBA - result a worse diversification than previous with one loan (441) having 35% whereas previously the biggest position was just 12%. Fortunately only involves small amounts - £500 - as I have been patiently waiting for the new system to kick in. It looks as if I will be waiting a bit longer! Give it time, this change hasn't affected how idle funds are deployed, it rebalances your holdings after loan units have been bought. Over the next few hours I'd expect your holdings in 441 to fall to the account average.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 22, 2018 16:21:44 GMT
Following notification that the "algorithm" was working I invested a further amount (to double the total) in my GBBA - result a worse diversification than previous with one loan (441) having 35% whereas previously the biggest position was just 12%. Fortunately only involves small amounts - £500 - as I have been patiently waiting for the new system to kick in. It looks as if I will be waiting a bit longer! When I mentioned in p2pindependentforum.com/thread/11716/slowdown-credited-interest that the allocation to loan 441 in my GBBA2 account had gone up today from 2.8% to 7%, chris said "That's the average for the account". Quite how accounts moving to the average of 7% across investors explains your move from 12% to 35% is best left to AC to explain. Loan 441 is currently showing as having £581K available for investment. I believe it was more like £630K when you posted your entry (I looked it up, but couldn't get logged into the forum to post this). I suspect the new 'better' algorithm is assigning more importance to filling up the loan (i.e. trying to allocate the now £581K across investors) than it is to improving the allocation percentages short term within a lender's GBBA2 portfolio. I don't share AC's view that "OK, so your percentages may be worse short term but they should be better longer term" is a better algorithm. Imo they should have gone with a "your percentages will be slightly better short term and much better longer term" or even "your percentages will be no worse in the short term but much better longer term". For now, I'm going to vote with my £s and remove my money from GBBA2 until the popular view is that AC have really fixed things.
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Post by chris on Feb 22, 2018 19:36:33 GMT
Following notification that the "algorithm" was working I invested a further amount (to double the total) in my GBBA - result a worse diversification than previous with one loan (441) having 35% whereas previously the biggest position was just 12%. Fortunately only involves small amounts - £500 - as I have been patiently waiting for the new system to kick in. It looks as if I will be waiting a bit longer! When I mentioned in p2pindependentforum.com/thread/11716/slowdown-credited-interest that the allocation to loan 441 in my GBBA2 account had gone up today from 2.8% to 7%, chris said "That's the average for the account". Quite how accounts moving to the average of 7% across investors explains your move from 12% to 35% is best left to AC to explain. Loan 441 is currently showing as having £581K available for investment. I believe it was more like £630K when you posted your entry (I looked it up, but couldn't get logged into the forum to post this). I suspect the new 'better' algorithm is assigning more importance to filling up the loan (i.e. trying to allocate the now £581K across investors) than it is to improving the allocation percentages short term within a lender's GBBA2 portfolio. I don't share AC's view that "OK, so your percentages may be worse short term but they should be better longer term" is a better algorithm. Imo they should have gone with a "your percentages will be slightly better short term and much better longer term" or even "your percentages will be no worse in the short term but much better longer term". For now, I'm going to vote with my £s and remove my money from GBBA2 until the popular view is that AC have really fixed things. As per my other posts you are conflating two systems here. One system is responsible for buying and selling loan units on the aftermarket according to whether you want to deploy funds or withdraw them. That code is unchanged and is the code that was responsible for making ton27's investment in his post. The new algorithm only looks at existing loan units, even ignoring idle funds, and attempts to take your holdings and diversify in roughly the same distribution as the other lenders in that investment account. So if the account as a whole has 5% of all funds invested in a given loan then the system will try and move all lenders to have roughly that level of investment in that loan. However there are some tolerances introduced to minimise the volume of trades and churn in the system over time. If you have less than £100 invested your holdings will not be diversified. If your target is less than 2% above target or 0.5% below target or is within £10 of the target then your holdings will not be changed (e.g. if the account as a whole has 5% invested in a loan and you have 6.9% invested then currently your holdings wouldn't change). Those tolerances will be reduced over the next few days though as a steady state is approached, probably to 0.5% above and 0.1% below. Suspended loans are also excluded as are loans where provision fund payments have been made (usually there would be an overlap here anyway). If you don't meet those criteria then you will not see any trades. There are other alternative algorithms we could easily switch to, such as setting every account to diversify down to a target % in each loan (e.g. 1%), but we're targeting a more equal distribution first and would need more loan flow to switch to that particular algorithm. There's also no priority queue or round robin system involved. The system just repeatedly selects two lenders at random and the matches any exchanges that move them both towards equilibrium. So if you haven't seen any activity by tomorrow morning chances are there's a reason your account isn't being included rather than you haven't been randomly included in an exchange.
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jlend
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Post by jlend on Feb 22, 2018 21:11:00 GMT
When I mentioned in p2pindependentforum.com/thread/11716/slowdown-credited-interest that the allocation to loan 441 in my GBBA2 account had gone up today from 2.8% to 7%, chris said "That's the average for the account". Quite how accounts moving to the average of 7% across investors explains your move from 12% to 35% is best left to AC to explain. Loan 441 is currently showing as having £581K available for investment. I believe it was more like £630K when you posted your entry (I looked it up, but couldn't get logged into the forum to post this). I suspect the new 'better' algorithm is assigning more importance to filling up the loan (i.e. trying to allocate the now £581K across investors) than it is to improving the allocation percentages short term within a lender's GBBA2 portfolio. I don't share AC's view that "OK, so your percentages may be worse short term but they should be better longer term" is a better algorithm. Imo they should have gone with a "your percentages will be slightly better short term and much better longer term" or even "your percentages will be no worse in the short term but much better longer term". For now, I'm going to vote with my £s and remove my money from GBBA2 until the popular view is that AC have really fixed things. As per my other posts you are conflating two systems here. One system is responsible for buying and selling loan units on the aftermarket according to whether you want to deploy funds or withdraw them. That code is unchanged and is the code that was responsible for making ton27 's investment in his post. The new algorithm only looks at existing loan units, even ignoring idle funds, and attempts to take your holdings and diversify in roughly the same distribution as the other lenders in that investment account. So if the account as a whole has 5% of all funds invested in a given loan then the system will try and move all lenders to have roughly that level of investment in that loan. However there are some tolerances introduced to minimise the volume of trades and churn in the system over time. If you have less than £100 invested your holdings will not be diversified. If your target is less than 2% above target or 0.5% below target or is within £10 of the target then your holdings will not be changed (e.g. if the account as a whole has 5% invested in a loan and you have 6.9% invested then currently your holdings wouldn't change). Those tolerances will be reduced over the next few days though as a steady state is approached, probably to 0.5% above and 0.1% below. Suspended loans are also excluded as are loans where provision fund payments have been made (usually there would be an overlap here anyway). If you don't meet those criteria then you will not see any trades. There are other alternative algorithms we could easily switch to, such as setting every account to diversify down to a target % in each loan (e.g. 1%), but we're targeting a more equal distribution first and would need more loan flow to switch to that particular algorithm. There's also no priority queue or round robin system involved. The system just repeatedly selects two lenders at random and the matches any exchanges that move them both towards equilibrium. So if you haven't seen any activity by tomorrow morning chances are there's a reason your account isn't being included rather than you haven't been randomly included in an exchange. Thanks chris very helpful background. Loan #327 - should this one be diversifying? It is not suspended as it has been selling out of my gbba, neither has it had a PF payment as far as I am aware. I may be mistake of course.
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Post by chris on Feb 23, 2018 7:09:09 GMT
Thanks chris very helpful background. Loan #327 - should this one be diversifying? It is not suspended as it has been selling out of my gbba, neither has it had a PF payment as far as I am aware. I may be mistake of course. #327 has a credit event registered against it, so whilst the market is open for trading none of the automatic investment accounts would buy into it which excludes it from being diversified by this new algorithm.
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Post by captainconfident on Feb 23, 2018 9:36:30 GMT
Thanks to chris and Assetz for making this change , which should leave a more even distribution of risk ( #227 excepted). My GBBA1 account continually reinvests, inspite of being automatically set to withdraw capital and interest. When will this bug be fixed?
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ton27
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Post by ton27 on Feb 23, 2018 13:09:10 GMT
Following notification that the "algorithm" was working I invested a further amount (to double the total) in my GBBA - result a worse diversification than previous with one loan (441) having 35% whereas previously the biggest position was just 12%. Fortunately only involves small amounts - £500 - as I have been patiently waiting for the new system to kick in. It looks as if I will be waiting a bit longer! Give it time, this change hasn't affected how idle funds are deployed, it rebalances your holdings after loan units have been bought. Over the next few hours I'd expect your holdings in 441 to fall to the account average. Hi Chris, I've given it 24 hours - no change to 441 although there has been some "exchange" activity.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 23, 2018 16:00:41 GMT
I think there's more to the #441 story than has been explained by chris so far. Yesterday I was told the increased allocation (7%) of #441 in my GBBA2 account was to bring it in line with the average. Not being happy with that, I put my GBBA2 account on sale. Currently I have just £785 left in GBBA2 but £483 in #441, well over 50%. Not sure if it's a factor but #441 has £758K available.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Feb 23, 2018 16:09:43 GMT
I think there's more to the #441 story than has been explained by chris so far. Yesterday I was told the increased allocation (7%) of #441 in my GBBA2 account was to bring it in line with the average. Not being happy with that, I put my GBBA2 account on sale. Currently I have just £785 left in GBBA2 but £483 in #441, well over 50%. Not sure if it's a factor but #441 has £758K available. Yes, of course it's a factor. If you look to sell out of a managed account, you have the same selling priority as anyone else looking to sell the loans you hold, including the QAA/30DAA. Loans with no availability will sell very quickly. Loans with very large availability may take a very long time. Once all but one loan have sold, the last loan will represent 100% of your remaining GBBA2 holdings.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 23, 2018 17:38:50 GMT
I think there's more to the #441 story than has been explained by chris so far. Yesterday I was told the increased allocation (7%) of #441 in my GBBA2 account was to bring it in line with the average. Not being happy with that, I put my GBBA2 account on sale. Currently I have just £785 left in GBBA2 but £483 in #441, well over 50%. Not sure if it's a factor but #441 has £758K available. Yes, of course it's a factor. If you look to sell out of a managed account, you have the same selling priority as anyone else looking to sell the loans you hold, including the QAA/30DAA. Loans with no availability will sell very quickly. Loans with very large availability may take a very long time. Once all but one loan have sold, the last loan will represent 100% of your remaining GBBA2 holdings. Makes sense, thanks. Do you think it's also a factor in ton27's case ?
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dave2
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Post by dave2 on Feb 24, 2018 0:39:51 GMT
Are these "Exchanges" going to be shuffling tens or hundreds of transactions a day through my GBBA account ad infinitum?
I keep manual records in Excel, and to be honest, these "double" transactions are a pain in the ass.
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