pickles
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Post by pickles on Jun 18, 2018 17:25:42 GMT
It's the "since I started lending" that's the issue. It's far more useful to have YTD & rolling 12 month figures.
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justme
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Post by justme on Jun 18, 2018 17:53:18 GMT
Yes but the real question is, how many of your loans are either processing, late or downgraded? That will give you a much better indication of the state of your loan book after 6 months (FC don't make it easy to see this information). Currently one default, four late and four processing. how much is the amount in 4 late
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blender
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Post by blender on Jun 18, 2018 17:53:52 GMT
What is meant (by Greenwood2) is that the annualised return is for the whole account life. Mine is over 11%, but that is over nearly six years and for most of that it was a much larger account. It does not tell you anything recent, unless it is a recently started account (we have one of those also).
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lucky
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Post by lucky on Jun 18, 2018 19:08:54 GMT
Currently one default, four late and four processing. how much is the amount in 4 late The 4 late total just under £280
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jun 18, 2018 19:37:56 GMT
None of the headline figures on the dashboard give anywhere near to my current calculations of return. Gross Yield doesn't include bad debt. Annualised return (if it's what I think it is) is historic and too long term (for me) to say anything about the current situation. And the estimated value is, I think, an estimate of what your portfolio might be doing if you experienced their estimated bad debt rates. Really not all that helpful. What do you mean? The F.C. page quotes that that is my annualised return after ACTUAL fees and bad debt since I started lending at F.C. What else can they quote as my return. Mine says 80%. Due to buying and selling in the early years, not investing for a long time, starting again with a much lower amount on the platform. Gives no idea of what my current return is.
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Post by df on Jun 18, 2018 20:26:13 GMT
When you say 7.8% is that Gross yield, Annualised return or Estimated fully diversified ( after fees and bad debts)? None of the headline figures on the dashboard give anywhere near to my current calculations of return. Gross Yield doesn't include bad debt. Annualised return (if it's what I think it is) is historic and too long term (for me) to say anything about the current situation. And the estimated value is, I think, an estimate of what your portfolio might be doing if you experienced their estimated bad debt rates. Really not all that helpful. It is historic. Mine started from ridiculously high and eventually settled at 7-7.4% (since last nov-dec). It can be comforting to see it stabilised. I don't do in-depth analysis of my FC returns, but I audit my p2p exposure monthly. Since sept 18th I didn't touch FC (no deposits no withdrawals) - my total portfolio increments were declining for the past 6 months and this month I have less funds on FC than in May. I certainly earned something in the past and there is a chance for some recoveries, but the future doesn't look very promissing.
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coogaruk
Hello everyone! Anyone remember me?
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Post by coogaruk on Jun 21, 2018 14:29:45 GMT
Yet another default today, reducing my gain since I ceased new lending to 2.9%.
I reckon It could take just two more defaults to reduce my annual return (Sep-Sep) to zero.
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pickles
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Post by pickles on Jun 21, 2018 17:46:58 GMT
Today's big default was clearly coming* but now it's crystallised it puts my return this FY at 3.86% - about a third of last year's but still not charity and substantially better than premium bonds (and with just as much excitement every Thursday)
* they took the loan, immediately cancelled the direct debit, giving them 120 days to scarper in the full knowledge that FC don't do anything whatsoever for 90 days after the first missed payment. And not a lot after that.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Jun 21, 2018 19:43:27 GMT
FC has certainly come off the rails for me this year following on from six years of pretty solid returns (avg 7.5% pa).
45 defaults in the last four months giving me a small capital loss of 0.75%.
I am well diversified (1250 loans but running down) so have difficulty in matching my performance with the FC projected returns. Is there an elephant in the FC loan book that has yet to show itself?
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blender
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Post by blender on Jun 21, 2018 20:47:16 GMT
FC has certainly come off the rails for me this year following on from six years of pretty solid returns (avg 7.5% pa). 45 defaults in the last four months giving me a small capital loss of 0.75%. I am well diversified (1250 loans but running down) so have difficulty in matching my performance with the FC projected returns. Is there an elephant in the FC loan book that has yet to show itself? The elephant is called Flotation, and it's to be as big and invisible as possible in the short time left.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jun 22, 2018 15:34:57 GMT
The below is an extract from a major p2p reviewer
I wonder why...
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jun 22, 2018 16:20:44 GMT
Which reviewer?
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jun 22, 2018 18:35:30 GMT
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Jun 23, 2018 7:37:24 GMT
Thanks for the link, v interesting.
If the huge 2018 spike in defaults in my 1250 loans match the FC loan book (statistically you would think that 1000+ loans should do) then there is a serious problem about to emerge. It will emerge but blocked access to the loan book means that this will be considerably delayed.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jun 23, 2018 8:07:45 GMT
Thanks for the link, v interesting. If the huge 2018 spike in defaults in my 1250 loans match the FC loan book (statistically you would think that 1000+ loans should do) then there is a serious problem about to emerge. It will emerge but blocked access to the loan book means that this will be considerably delayed. Whilst of course it's too soon to make any real conclusions, I can't say I'd be surprised. After they last lowered rates, we were seeing "pay off tax bill" type unsecured 'A+' loans attracting rates of 5.5% before FC fees. It was difficult for me to imagine how those loans could possibly perform to their target default level (which I can no longer find, but i think was 0.6%?). As has been mentioned before, unfortunately some investors are almost certainly being misled by the IMV meaningless 'gross yield', 'annualised return' and 'EFDR' statistics.
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