ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jun 23, 2018 8:53:33 GMT
Don’t you get a reasonable idea about your loans when you attempt to sell out? Surely the system will say only £x loan parts can be sold.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Jun 23, 2018 16:52:31 GMT
Here are my default numbers - year to end June for 2015 to 2018.
I have always had 1500+ loans, peaked at 1675 in September 2017 and now down to 1238 as of today due to my running out of FC.
No property, very few E loans rest mostly spread between A to D. All hand picked by me (!!) and which gave returns between 7.5% and 8.5% for the years 2012 to 2017.
Years to end June:
2018 - 55 defaults (including 16 at A+ and A)
2017 - 23 defaults
2016 - 25 defaults
2015 - 25 defaults.
IMO there is an emerging FC loan book problem which kicked off in March 2018 (Only 10 of my 55 defaults occurred in Jan/Feb 2018).
In a dash for growth prior to the IPO have we seen FC take on a load of rubbish in 2017?
Is this a race between the IPO and the loan book?
Time will tell.
Sorry bit unclear - in each case it is the year from Jan to end June.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jun 23, 2018 19:54:31 GMT
Should we take the removal of the downloadable loan book as a bad omen, perhaps? FC were once proud of that transparency, and the lost statistics.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jun 24, 2018 9:28:29 GMT
AIUI, stats and stuff will be released quarterly - is this really a problem? I have access to my loan book which is really the only thing that interests me.
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bg
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Post by bg on Jun 24, 2018 10:01:05 GMT
AIUI, stats and stuff will be released quarterly - is this really a problem? I have access to my loan book which is really the only thing that interests me. In my view its a big problem. If you are looking to open an FC account how can you make a decision as to whether this is a smart investment? They may now release a limited amount of stats on a quarterly basis but it's up to them what they release and if a metric moves against them they are likely to just drop it and show another one that is more favourable. For existing investors it's not just their own loan book that is of interest. You invest only in a small selection of the total loans on the platform. Your loan book may be holding up well right now but that may just be luck. My loan book has had an abysmal year - initially I was prepared to give FC the benefit of the doubt that I had been unlucky and that performance would probably revert to mean over time. I now have no means of assessing what that mean is and more to the point, why have FC withdrawn this facility. It makes me feel they have something to hide. I'm all for consistency and transparency. I don't feel we are getting either anymore from FC which is why I am now actively selling down my portfolio as opposed to just letting it run off naturally.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jun 26, 2018 18:31:25 GMT
I honestly think it’s luck of the draw, opened a ISA with F.C. 6 months ago and it’s going really well at the moment, over £900.00 interest and just one default of just under £3.00, that will undoubtedly change as time passes. Jeezus l must be very unlucky. I think I,ll pull out. It's unusual to have negative all time net earning, but I suppose it's mathematically possible. I haven't experienced a 7% default yet. I think you are better off to stay put and let your money grow with FC in the long run.
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coogaruk
Hello everyone! Anyone remember me?
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Post by coogaruk on Jun 28, 2018 14:07:56 GMT
Yet another default today, reducing my gain since I ceased new lending to 2.9%.
I reckon It could take just two more defaults to reduce my annual return (Sep-Sep) to zero. Well I didn't have long to wait, as one week on and another one has now gone 'Pop!'.
My earnings total is now just 1.6% higher than it was on 18th September last year, more than vindicating my decision to stop new lending in my view. A more sensible action might have been to sell up and cash in and I guess that remaining option has moved a little closer today.
That aftertaste since last September just got a little nastier.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jun 28, 2018 14:39:15 GMT
My partner has a smaller portfolio with FC, the account is 6 years old with 106 live loans (not really well diversified after 6 years due to small investment without extra top up.), max allocation is 2% in a business, 24 loans defaulted and 35 loans with comment after 6 years.
Since Sept 17, the account has gained 3.5%,annualised rate is 6.5%. The performance is less than expected but acceptable for now.
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markr
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Post by markr on Jul 2, 2018 8:03:25 GMT
2018 - 55 defaults (including 16 at A+ and A) 2017 - 23 defaults 2016 - 25 defaults 2015 - 25 defaults. I think for most of us here, comparing our pre- and post-September portfolios doesn't tell us an awful lot about the FC's loan book as a whole. When we could choose our own loans, we generally employed a number of strategies to attempt to reduce the number of defaults we were exposed to. Most of these strategies have been denied to us since the change to automatic accounts. From your figures, it could be an equally valid conclusion to say that your manual bidding strategy was successful in ridding you of about half the defaults that you should have seen. That doesn't mean the defaults didn't happen, just that you'd avoided those loans, or offloaded them to autobidders. Personally I think it's a combination. Defaults overall are probably up (hence the expected returns reduction), but not by as much as our own loan portfolios may suggest.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jul 2, 2018 9:24:05 GMT
Only been with F.C. since September. So far I’ve bunged in £27,000, 640 loan parts and 9 defaults (bad debt). Quite few very overdue payments, though.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jul 2, 2018 10:02:08 GMT
FC does not have provision fund, and I know the balance looks less than perfect when defaults kick in. The performance of each individual accounts varies. Interestingly, I opened a 5k account with FC in March and the other 5k with GS at the same period | Date | FC | GS | | Apr 18 | 5017 | 5029 | | May 18 | 5050 | 5048 | | Jun 18 | 5095 | 5078 | | Jul 18 | 5107 | 5110 |
Some of my FC accounts making better return than this 5k account, only time will tell if FC make higher return than other platforms in tax year 2018-19 |
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bg
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Post by bg on Jul 2, 2018 12:08:32 GMT
I just had an FC default.....on a Monday! Maybe they don't have enough time to process all the defaults on a Thursday anymore!
Loan 42494. I'm now firmly down on the year.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jul 2, 2018 13:15:02 GMT
2018 - 55 defaults (including 16 at A+ and A) 2017 - 23 defaults 2016 - 25 defaults 2015 - 25 defaults. I think for most of us here, comparing our pre- and post-September portfolios doesn't tell us an awful lot about the FC's loan book as a whole. When we could choose our own loans, we generally employed a number of strategies to attempt to reduce the number of defaults we were exposed to. Most of these strategies have been denied to us since the change to automatic accounts. From your figures, it could be an equally valid conclusion to say that your manual bidding strategy was successful in ridding you of about half the defaults that you should have seen. That doesn't mean the defaults didn't happen, just that you'd avoided those loans, or offloaded them to autobidders. Personally I think it's a combination. Defaults overall are probably up (hence the expected returns reduction), but not by as much as our own loan portfolios may suggest. Good point. Many lenders had a policy of dumping loans which had been late and had returned to life. This was said to save half the defaults, but that was long, long ago, when dinosaurs roamed the platform.
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