j
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Post by j on Aug 20, 2014 19:55:51 GMT
The email I got this morning promoting the cashback says "bids of £5,000 and above..." Same here. I'm still in two minds about this though? What are everyone else's thoughts?
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Aug 20, 2014 22:11:08 GMT
The email I got this morning promoting the cashback says "bids of £5,000 and above..." Same here. I'm still in two minds about this though? What are everyone else's thoughts? Depends as to whether you are thinking of doing a quick flip or not?
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Post by bracknellboy on Aug 21, 2014 7:55:14 GMT
£5k exposure on single loan when there will probably be no opportunity to resell ('cos of size of loan) is a bit too rich for my taste. Esp. for 0.5%. However I did chuck in my contribution before the cash back offer to help it along.
Maybe I'm a bit too timid on these things....
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j
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Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on Aug 21, 2014 8:13:40 GMT
£5k exposure on single loan when there will probably be no opportunity to resell ('cos of size of loan) is a bit too rich for my taste. Esp. for 0.5%. However I did chuck in my contribution before the cash back offer to help it along. Maybe I'm a bit too timid on these things.... Effectively my thinking too. Is it worth tying £5k for sake of extra £25 upfront. We all have different strategies. !% might have done the trick tho
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j
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Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on Aug 21, 2014 12:30:36 GMT
For me the cashback is nice but not hugely material. It's achieved making me bid via my shadow account rather than bidding on the AM but that's all. I think you can assume over 9 months, you would be be able to sell a proportion of the loan on the AM. I've been able to sell 80% of Ha**ney and over 50% of Ip**ich and Ep**ng and these are all £2m loans. I could have sold 100% if I had wanted to, especially if I has discounted them by 1 pence! The market is log-jammed right now but we know from TC and AC that there is a tendency to go quickly from drought to flood and back again. However, I don't think you can assume you can sell so you probably need to decide you are comfortable to hold the full position to expiry in extremis. Thanks for the useful input/perspective samford71
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j
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Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on Aug 22, 2014 8:58:33 GMT
The cash back had an initial effect but, we seem to be back to the usual inertia once again. With 4 days to go on both loans, it looks unlikely they will fill without yet more underwriting!
Is the solution a bigger sweetener or something much more fundamental?
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spockie
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Post by spockie on Aug 22, 2014 9:20:46 GMT
Not having a spare five grand, I am unable to qualify for cashback. If the Hackney one repays today or Monday, I don't mind chucking in the Hackney money to help out, but I would otherwise be waiting for the AM for both loans. I'm sure the issues being experienced here will all be dealt with when the new site is launched, but in the short term, there is little incentive for small/medium sized investors to invest early.
What I understand less is the sudden log-jam on the AM. I don't know if it is because of the FF issue, but most lenders, myself included, seem pretty happy with the way that particular default has been dealt with. Maybe AC could have blown their own trumpet on the forum a bit more about how that has gone so far in that all the positive comments are locked away in the pink section.
Rates do appear to have dropped, and I am investing less because of that. Maybe that is the case for others too.
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j
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Post by j on Aug 22, 2014 9:36:48 GMT
Not having a spare five grand, I am unable to qualify for cashback. If the Hackney one repays today or Monday, I don't mind chucking in the Hackney money to help out, but I would otherwise be waiting for the AM for both loans. I'm sure the issues being experienced here will all be dealt with when the new site is launched, but in the short term, there is little incentive for small/medium sized investors to invest early. What I understand less is the sudden log-jam on the AM. I don't know if it is because of the FF issue, but most lenders, myself included, seem pretty happy with the way that particular default has been dealt with. Maybe AC could have blown their own trumpet on the forum a bit more about how that has gone so far in that all the positive comments are locked away in the pink section. Rates do appear to have dropped, and I am investing less because of that. Maybe that is the case for others too. For me, rates are a significant factor. I haven't relocated funds as such yet as I like to hold loans till maturity but, I most likely will migrate a bit once they are repaid to somewhere which pays higher (assuming they will continue to do so). I don't see the logic of investing in similar loans paying upto 10% when I can get a few % points higher elsewhere. Nothing against AC, just economical logic
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Aug 22, 2014 9:50:45 GMT
On a risk adjusted basis I have no problem with the current rates. I have confidence in AC's security and processes, and that's worth something for me.
I doubt that the log-jam is down to rates. I think it's just AC trying to grow too fast, and being over-reliant on underwriters.
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Post by jackpease on Aug 22, 2014 10:00:39 GMT
Well 1% would tempt me - 0.5% hasn't. Could we set up one of those board polls to encourage Assetz to dip into its pockets to ease this along?
Jack P
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Aug 22, 2014 13:41:15 GMT
First rate analysis from samford71. The only thing I'm not sure about is what's putting off the "silent majority"? Is it risk aversion, complexity or a bit of both? I suspect it's a bit of both, which is why RS's approach is so clever. There are loads of investors with equity ISAs who never read accounts, relying on tips in the press / internet / brokers / man in the pub. The big question is how many of them can be converted to p2b? I don't think it's risk that's putting them all off, although there was a discussion about risk on the TC forum not long ago, where I was amazed by how many posters saw equities as less risky than p2b. |
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Post by chris on Aug 22, 2014 14:57:40 GMT
There's a whole swathe of people who seem quite happy with property development loans on FC yielding 6-9%. I wonder if they even know AC exists. You didn't happen to retain a backdoor key to FC's email database did you chris? No, and that would be very wrong anyway, forget I mentioned it...  Still, a little bit of marketing might be a better use of resources then a modest cash back aimed at what appears to be an already saturated existing lender base. 6mths ago people were happy to overexpose themselves knowing that everything listed on the AM got snapped up in no time at all (me included), but now I think we're seeing a more true reflection of the amount of exposure existing lenders are happy with. It's also worth AC looking at the type of deals that are proving sticky, there are a lot of 200-700k deals that very rarely appear on the AM. What are the differences? AC might benefit by trying to focus on what has proved popular in the past. (Un?)fortunately not. There's some great insight in this thread but also some that's a bit wide of the mark. Keep the feedback coming as we do read it all and take it all on board. Even where we disagree with a comment it can still highlight to us a problem in perception or our communication. September is shaping up to be very interesting.
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kermie
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Post by kermie on Aug 22, 2014 15:03:10 GMT
So cryptic again, Chris ;-) Whilst the reasons for struggling to fill this loan are probably varying and complex, pepperpot's comment chimes with me as being at least one of those reasons - I have previously "over-indulged" on certain loans knowing I can later re-balance, but I am less inclined to do so at the moment. I suspect it's been mentioned before, Chris, but some indicator on the web site as to the AM-trading volume on each loan might help with that concern, maybe (OK, that doesn't quite follow, but I like the idea anyway...) |
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j
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Post by j on Aug 22, 2014 21:00:56 GMT
There's a whole swathe of people who seem quite happy with property development loans on FC yielding 6-9%. I wonder if they even know AC exists. You didn't happen to retain a backdoor key to FC's email database did you chris? No, and that would be very wrong anyway, forget I mentioned it... Still, a little bit of marketing might be a better use of resources then a modest cash back aimed at what appears to be an already saturated existing lender base. 6mths ago people were happy to overexpose themselves knowing that everything listed on the AM got snapped up in no time at all (me included), but now I think we're seeing a more true reflection of the amount of exposure existing lenders are happy with. It's also worth AC looking at the type of deals that are proving sticky, there are a lot of 200-700k deals that very rarely appear on the AM. What are the differences? AC might benefit by trying to focus on what has proved popular in the past. Is it do with having large loans @ lower rates? The ones that are not being traded seem to be the 12%+ ones. I know as I don't have units in a few & have had AI set up for many weeks now with very little or no success. That's my experience, hence this view. It seems lenders are tightly holding on to older loans with higher rates, understandably so, considering what's currently available
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Aug 22, 2014 21:07:07 GMT
With regard to AC, I've proposed the reason for the cashback offer to "retail" lenders was that the underwriters' capital lending base was close to fully committed. If that assumption holds, we can deduce that the underwriters' capital base might be around £10m. They are underwriting around £5.4m of undrawn deals (assuming they are not committed to upcoming loans). On the AM, underwriters seem to be offering around £4m. Redemptions in the next 6-8 weeks are £7.9m (assuming all redeem on time and excluding coupons). AC has £9.1m in live auction/undrawn deals likely to draw in that period. With £5.4m held by underwriters, £2.8m is held by retail lenders (another £0.9m is unfunded). It's not clear what proportion of that £2.8m is on shadow account and what is committed cash. However, assuming a 100% rollover rate on redemptions, the underwriting commitment would fall from £9.4m to between £1.5m and £5.1m. On a 80% rollover rate, underwriter commitments will be £3.9m to £6.8m. So in the next month or two we can see the current pressure reduce to an extent though its very unlikely to return to a situation where the AM is devoid of loans. <snip> Another aspect might be; are u/wers themselves looking at the AM and saying I'm going to be holding this loan full term and backing out whereas previously they may've believed it would be easier to unload. There are atleast two new Underwriters coming on-line, Why not others?
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