Have started to do my FA league of predicted FS failures - unlike some of the loans here sponsorship has been promised and arrived so thank you Horlicks
Players are classed as follows:
Premier league - over 74% capital loss
League 1 '' 49%
League 2 '' 24%
league 3 '' 0%
I am very busy so this is my first offering - please say if you think my data is wrong or that I am being unreasonable or even if I have missed any star players...
The NI turbine has been completed and remains the overall champion with a stellar capital loss of £695,429.02 or 69.5 % viz top of League 1...
however running up close we have
1) Wimbledon - loan of £350K predicted loss 100% - Premier League
2) Knaresboriugh - loan of £725K predicted loss 100% - Premier League
3) Whitehaven - loan of £530K predicted loss £490K - Premier League
4) 6 Boats 1 boat - loan of 40K actual loss 54% - League 1
5 boats £127750.49 predicted loss 90K - Premier League
overall loss on the 6 boats over £100K - Premier League
5) power and endurance boats
endurance boat loan of £938K predicted loss over £500K possibly League 1 if lucky
powerboat £1.2m predicted loss over £900K - Premier League
I have assumed there is no sponsorship despite it being imminent for over 2 years...
6) Barnoldswick
main farmhouse - £188K - predicted loss 100% - Premier League
£587K - predicted loss £80K - League 2
cottage - 20K - zero loss !
cottage - 44K additional loan predicted loss £10K - League 2
7a) south wales hotel £420K loan predicted loss £120K – league 1 loss
7b) south wales hotel £100K loan predicted loss £100K 100% – Premier
8) Military and Time Piece Collection 1013434811
378K loan – predicted loss 150K league 1
this is based upon a forum member who really knows this market,
And now the Mother of all Predicted Failures for this week
9a) 2 p**k h*mes £165 predicted loss £60K league 1
£33K second charge predicted loss - 100% £33K Premier
£33K third charge - 100% £33K premier
I also note that despite and original loan value being given it was twice extended - really
don't like that!
9b) 5 p**k h*mes loan £228K predicted loss anywhere from £128K - £28K so a generous league 1
I may well be wrong but this is one of the craziest business models I have ever seen - if a dealer wanted one of these things why would he buy from this chap and not go direct to the manufacturer. I see no evidence of a site for these things and however much do they depreciate ex-factory? In fact I am not even convinced these things will be sold unless they are massively discounted - just my opinion.
10) Trains - very confusing as to what is actually happening - I think a 50% recovery on one loan has already been made so to simplify I have this one as
loan outstanding of £57K with predicted loss of £30K cost League 1
11) Newcastle student flats
Haven't time to do detailed research so a very superficial comment
loan £860K predicted loss £360K– League 1
12) Cinema - granted this one may have a serious buyer who will cover the loan but I really can't see it especially as were originally told
Loan £2m - predicted loss £1m+ - League 1 although could reach the Premiership!
---update loan £1.65m predicted loss £650K - league 2 if very lucky
loan £250K 2nd charge predicted loss 100% Premier League
loan £100K 3rd charge predicted loss 100% Premier League
---- end update
----update 28.07.18
13) Mixed Use Property, Liverpool loan total £625K
This one is over 16 months late and clearly in trouble As it seems to consist of 3 freehold titles which have not been inspected then I have no idea what it is worth! I am guessing the recovery will be around £0.5m Thus I have this one as a very generous League 2 i.e. over 25% loss but it could make the Premiership.
14) East Ham Property loan £77K (second charge) complete and utter disaster easily a loss of over 75% - Premiership (could be a 100% loss?)
15) Land Lytham St Annes
- very confusing ! I think we have a first charge on £2.85m and a second charge on £500K. Considering Final Planning Permission is not even granted yet all I can say is Gordon Bennett and I expect this to be another FS mega disaster. I note there are already discounted loans on the SM. It looks to me as if this chap is late with a modest £2.45m loan total outstanding - well how on earth is he going to repay that anytime soon! FS have lent this chap money to repay interest on a non income generating asset that, in my opinion, is grossly overvalued...nasty!
£2.45M at 20% is over £40K per month in interest. Do I think this 1.3 acres site is going to sell for over £3m - in a word "no"! I would guess about 50% of this. If I am correct then £2.85M is going to take a haircut (a right skinhead) so say a very generous League 2 and the £500K will be a Premier League loss at 100%
update 04.08.18
had a very busy week so only a short update this week but I still have plenty to go on!
16)
VIP
- this one has exactly zero security so well donee Funding Secure this person has been borrowing money since March 2016 so not looking very good for the advertising contract is it!
impossible to say but this can't go on forever so I have this one down as a very generous league 1 i.e. over £45K i.e. 50% loss - it may come good but I can't see it
17) artwork : Chagall, Picasso, Impressionists, Lowry, Auerbach, Vases, Artwork
it is not clear to me just how loans this person has so I have lumped what I think it is and get £2.35m lent - small change and not really worth doing a full legal check as to ownership!
Granted this may be a very rich person but the very rich people I know don't pawn their items at 20%+!
Considering the very poor and incomplete information FS have given us impossible to say what I think is likely to be recovered. Could be 100% or could be 0% if these weren't his or her items to pawn! Goodness knows what the legal fees will be for this one. Also I have worked in the up-market art world and seen some unexpected art works soar in price and other more famous ones crash...on balance and assuming these items sell at auction I am going to give this one a very generous £1m loss i.e. league 1
18) Rishton
loan of £610K
- this one is now 890 days late!
IMHO the valuation regarding the land and reduced building costs is a joke
and no I don't expect FS to realise £1m per acre for a building plot in Lancashire
If this valuation is accurate then why does the lender need to go to a Dubai based funder who could not even get the funds transferred despite his solicitor having the money. As confirmed by people who know Dubai this is total horlicks unless is was sent by camel who took refugee status in Israel... worried I should cocoa!
Just look what the Whitehaven plot went for or rather didn't go - too busy to do detailed reasearch but will be surprised if FS realise £400K after expenses so a £210K loss and a very generous League 1
more belters next week - as always please say if you want any added or don't agree with my valuations. I am not criticising FS but simply validating how I think their loan book is performing against my predictions.
That said if I am anywhere near correct it is sure going to be one almighty haircut for we investors!
--- update 11.08.18
Bit busy at the moment as I have a development deadline to meet as
nasty things happen if I am late...
But here is a quick update of my predicted mega failures
19) Norfolk Farmhouse with land - is this one confusing or what
however second charge of £50K - my superficial research indicates by the time the first charge holder has had his interest and fees etc there is unlikely to be anything left over so Premier League and could well be a 100% loss
20) Related : 6 bed house in Norfolk £350K - think a small to modest haircut here (unless refinancing comes about) so a predicted £50K loss viz a generous League 3 loss at 15%
21) Development plot Liverpool - total loan £0.7m (I think) this one looks to me to have gone completely pear-shaped. I think no building has even started yet and refinancing fallen through so how on earth is this one going to be repaid especially as it was due
22.11.17 I am giving this one a very generous 50% loss viz £350K i.e. League 1 but may well be Premier League
---end update 11.08.18
I still have a lot more to add - all these potential losses are really adding up!
Also very worried by a lot of the recent loan issues but will come back to them only when they are late
That's it for this week - please say if you don't agree or I have missed any. I note comments about Vin*y *ridge etc but will add this once the repayments are late
Clearly FS have already hit 100% total losses but are clearly trying to delay formal admission of this for as long as possible. What I am planning on doing is seeing how my predictions compare to the final results so we can validate just how accurate the FS valuations etc are - as of now, it is not looking very good is it! I will also summarise a list of 100% losses
For latest update please see
p2pindependentforum.com/thread/13142/league-predicted-mega-failures-update