Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Jul 29, 2018 7:56:34 GMT
Is there something I am missing why are so many loans up at -1%? I have just looked and of the 240 loans that are for sale 103 of them at -1% and 104 of them are at a minus premium. That means there are many over 20% returns for those with cash in their FISA . Are you selling if so why ?
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woodland
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Post by woodland on Jul 29, 2018 8:14:47 GMT
Hi god - can you help me with your maths here? How does a 1% minus premium equate to a return of over 20%? I appreciate that this is tax free in an IFISA.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Jul 29, 2018 8:21:31 GMT
Is there something I am missing why are so many loans up at -1%? I have just looked and of the 240 loans that are for sale 103 of them at -1% and 104 of them are at a minus premium. That means there are many over 20% returns for those with cash in their FISA . Are you selling if so why ? Very few repayments achieved recently, so limited cash being ploughed back into SM loans (and PM loans for that matter). Also a general sense that confidence in FS's ability to get loans repaid is now very low, so many lenders are withdrawing anything that does repay. Unless FS pull their finger out and employ some experienced, professional "debt recovery" experts to tackle the ever growing list of zombie loans, filling new / renewal loans will become ever more difficult
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jul 29, 2018 8:23:38 GMT
Hi god - can you help me with your maths here? How does a 1% minus premium equate to a return of over 20%? I appreciate that this is tax free in an IFISA. He's presumably referring to the 'best effective rate pa' column on the FS SM. In my opinion, possibly the worst column to make buying decisions on - often leading to buying loans with 30-40 days remaining and a big suffocating python of inactivity and 'jam tomorrow' after that.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jul 29, 2018 8:27:46 GMT
Is there something I am missing why are so many loans up at -1%? I have just looked and of the 240 loans that are for sale 103 of them at -1% and 104 of them are at a minus premium. That means there are many over 20% returns for those with cash in their FISA . Are you selling if so why ? Very few repayments achieved recently, so limited cash being ploughed back into SM loans (and PM loans for that matter). Also a general sense that confidence in FS's ability to get loans repaid is now very low, so many lenders are withdrawing anything that does repay. Unless FS pull their finger out and employ some experienced, professional "debt recovery" experts to tackle the ever growing list of zombie loans, filling new / renewal loans will become ever more difficult With the pure number of loans that have been "almost there" for weeks and weeks, I wonder whether there's some dark web FS borrower consultancy service. It seems unbelievable that so many loans are so close. Or, conspiracy theories aside, perhaps it'll be a london buses affair and we'll all be complaining about nothing at discount on the SM by the end of the week
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jul 29, 2018 8:28:49 GMT
It,s the effective rate . If you buy £1000 loan part with 31 days to go at 1% discount and 12% base loan rate. In that 31 days you get 1% interest ie. £10 plus £10 from discount ie total £20 for 31 days equates to over 20% APR even loosing a little from buying accrued interest. All amounts approximate for all those who are
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jul 29, 2018 8:34:46 GMT
As usual small amounts in each loan that meet your personal criteria is not massive risk.I agree recovery and enforcement need a boost but FS is one of quickest to default allowing Tax offset for those unlucky enough not to have loans funded from their FISA. I still se no logical reason to offer a 178 day loan at loss of over £9.50/1000
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blender
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Post by blender on Jul 29, 2018 8:37:27 GMT
It,s the effective rate . If you buy £1000 loan part with 31 days to go at 1% discount and 12% base loan rate. In that 31 days you get 1% interest ie. £10 plus £10 from discount ie total £20 for 31 days equates to over 20% APR even loosing a little from buying accrued interest. All amounts approximate for all those who are That little word 'accrued' is the key to this. It's rather like, when Anubis weighs the soul, what is the weight of a good intention compared with that of a good deed? Accruals are good intentions, and repayments are good deeds.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jul 29, 2018 8:44:04 GMT
Is there something I am missing why are so many loans up at -1%? I have just looked and of the 240 loans that are for sale 103 of them at -1% and 104 of them are at a minus premium. That means there are many over 20% returns for those with cash in their FISA . Are you selling if so why ? Coming back to the OP - it's been discussed quite a bit here in recent weeks (although wouldn't expect you to religiously tune in ) Depending on who you ask, it's due to some combination of a heaving PM, (lost) confidence, and just a market cycle effect. I've personally now sold off 90% of my FS stuff because I don't trust them enough to hold anything but the very very best loans to term. There haven't been many of those recently, and the market as it is prevents any value in selling slightly more fragrant loans off early (because you may well not be able to, as you can see). Edit: And as bg completely correctly points out below, all of this is basically because FS aren't repaying anywhere near enough loans.
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bg
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Post by bg on Jul 29, 2018 8:46:40 GMT
A couple of repayments of sizeable loans and things will start heading back to normal.....problem is there haven't been any repayments for a while now.
I think FS are now fully aware of this problem and how they will not be able to fill any new loans unless some of these promised repayments start to come in. Hopefully they are now focusing all their efforts on recovery and we have some positive news soon. They have certainly been putting a lot more effort into updates over the past few days - what we desperately need now is an actual repayment.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 29, 2018 9:10:11 GMT
like a lot of others I have put all my loans on the SM - why because I have fed up of having my reasonable questions ignored by "non-answers" and and alarmed by the huge number of late running and defauted loans many of which strike me are going to be worse than the NI turbine diaster
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Post by brightspark on Jul 29, 2018 10:47:34 GMT
A couple of repayments of sizeable loans and things will start heading back to normal.....problem is there haven't been any repayments for a while now. I think FS are now fully aware of this problem and how they will not be able to fill any new loans unless some of these promised repayments start to come in. Hopefully they are now focusing all their efforts on recovery and we have some positive news soon. They have certainly been putting a lot more effort into updates over the past few days - what we desperately need now is an actual repayment. Can the focus start with repayment of the Rishton, Knaresborough and powerboat loans (all about 2 years overdue), Formby (10 months overdue) Llandudno (6 months overdue). I would then sleep better.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jul 29, 2018 17:38:37 GMT
As usual small amounts in each loan that meet your personal criteria is not massive risk.I agree recovery and enforcement need a boost but FS is one of quickest to default allowing Tax offset for those unlucky enough not to have loans funded from their FISA. I still se no logical reason to offer a 178 day loan at loss of over £9.50/1000 FS is one of the slowest to take any action whatsoever. I have some NI loans which have been 'active' (with zero payent watsoever) for 795+days and many Others which seems secure and turned out to disasters. I am to a point where I cannot trust FS even for a gem (!) and many lenders had enough of this band of people not caring about our money... For your other question, it is OBVIOUS. FS is pumping in money (via 'deep pocket' friends) just to keep the loans/renewals running and not pay massive interest for very long periods (as most loans are unfunded for long periods due to massive lack of confidence in the Platform). These deep pocket investors are not interested in the slightest in the loan and will need to recycle their money immediately for other loans in deep trouble, so they sell immediately as the loan goes live. It is like a cashflow management. It costs less to waste 1% than to pay 12/13% to all other investors while the loan is filling. As with all p2p it should be a holistic approach. Say you have £10000 too invest and you spread it over 200 loans even if 5% are very late or are even 100% loss your returns if in FISA is 7% APR after TAX (for 12% loans) if in your main account it would still fall within £1000 annual allowance and loss could be offset against any taxable interest if you have more invested in other P2P. Recoveries will reduce loss as and when they occur. I tend to buy high discount and sell low when nice people offer big initial savings. If nothing else it allows you to tempt others with large effective APRs later in loan life without you making less than base % and removing late/default risk for you. Lots of work but gives greater return for less risk than just buying and holding approx 18%. If you write off defaults in your own mind straight away it makes life much more simple. If you then get a payback it is like “Free money” for you to treat yourself . Bottom line is be happy with a tax free return of at least 5 times the bank rates. Lendy have lots of loans not defaulted but very overdue they at leas now ask investors to vote on various exit options. Perhaps this is a strategy FS should adopt on loans more than 180 days overdue. At least an early partial loss allows a chance to reinvest with ongoing recovery for balances due.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 29, 2018 19:16:28 GMT
personally speaking my investments are going to way exceed 5% total loss - more l15% if I am lucky which is going to virtually wipe-out my income.
I am simply quitting this amateur outfit as soon as I can....
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jul 29, 2018 19:37:26 GMT
personally speaking my investments are going to way exceed 5% total loss - more l15% if I am lucky which is going to virtually wipe-out my income. I am simply quitting this amateur outfit as soon as I can.... As far as I can see from all past loans 79 defaulted out of 2275 that’s 3.4% . A lot of these loans returned 100 % capital at least and a lot some interest if not all. Which means actual Loss on investment is tiny. You say it wipes out your income on the loans you choose which is not FS fault RISK =REWARD. As the only 100%% safe investments in are of <£80000 in FCA guaranteed investments which typically return <2% . I am sure people would be interested as to where you will be investing for a better return tax free asset secured investment
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